Penn State at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo   Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans  Michigan State logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Penn State -7 (48.5) (-258)  Open: -7.5
Penn State 28 - Michigan State: 10  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (99 - 41)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#74)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
MSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Penn State -11.5  (SP+ PSU -21.5)

Projected Score: PSU: 32 - MSU: 20 (52)
PSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 366 miles
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-7.048.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7.545.5W 37 - 10OY
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-14.555.5W 40 - 36ON
Sat 12/27 Penn State vs Clemson+2.547.5W 22 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)3152% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)20.539% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)24.645% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)29.939% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense163128.651.3%4.690.8203851762095.354%46%52%51%10%.32
MSU Defense1229.927.841.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1620.530.237.9%3.221.3 - - - - - 48%52%39%37%18%.05
MSU Offense1224.624.841.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1626:5120.448%70%4.441.40.81.35.52.3428.9
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1654% (38)52% (9)33.2176.25.331 (17).24 (20)3.42 (10)76% (51)7% (8)0.92 (90)
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1648% (43)39% (27) - - - - -.01 (12)2.37 (3)75% (75)12% (26)0.92 (42)
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1646% (95)51% (4)16.724.3208.88.612.527 (20)9 (48).41 (11)1.5 (107)26% (3)35% (31).46 (20)3% (5)2 (85)
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1652% (96)37% (25) - - - - - - 15 (18).1 (16)1.7 (91)36% (14)27% (25).2 (29)6% (57)2.1 (95)
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 18.37  #13
Penn State's Offense Rating: 23.64  #17
Penn State's Defense Rating: 5.27  #24
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 6.4
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1  #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #17
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 18.37   Michigan State: 6.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 18.1   Michigan State: -3.4




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.53  #37
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 19.95  #28
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 8.49  #35
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 32
Michigan State 20


Projected Total Points: 52
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Michigan State10Penn State28Penn State -7Penn State48.5Under
202311/24Michigan State0Penn State42Penn State -20Penn State42.0Push
202211/26Penn State35Michigan State16Penn State -19Push54.5Under
202111/27Michigan State30Penn State27Penn State -3.5Michigan State51.5Over
202012/12Penn State39Michigan State24Penn State -14.5Penn State45.5Over
201910/26Michigan State7Penn State28Penn State -5.5Penn State41.0Under
201810/13Penn State17Michigan State21Penn State -13.5Michigan State53.5Under
201711/04Michigan State27Penn State24Penn State -10Michigan State46.0Over
201611/26Penn State45Michigan State12Penn State -13.5Penn State53.5Over
201511/28Michigan State55Penn State16Michigan State -11Michigan State43.5Over
201411/29Penn State10Michigan State34Michigan State -11.5Michigan State0
201011/27Penn State22Michigan State28
200911/21Michigan State14Penn State42
200811/22Penn State49Michigan State18
200711/17Michigan State35Penn State31
200611/18Penn State17Michigan State13
200511/19Michigan State22Penn State31
200411/20Penn State37Michigan State13
200311/22Michigan State41Penn State10
200111/24Michigan State37Penn State42
200011/17Penn State42Michigan State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State855 Overs
Penn State1354 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 95 - 53 - 12 - 4
Road Teams9 - 125 - 54 - 21 - 3

(#13) PSU at (#37) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #13 #37
SP+SP+ #15 #82
Perf GradeGrade #23 #91
OffenseOff #29 #61
DefenseDef #38 #96
Spec TeamsST #13 #133
TalentTal #4 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #33
Penn State Notes
(12/5) Hired ISU HC Matt Campbell, bailed out PSU & AD
(12/4) Still no coach, crootin a disaster. Program a mess.
(11/22) Still fighting, killed Nebraska. 5-6, could bowl
(11/9) Credit due, even with IU. Still fighting
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
Penn State Injury Report
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #29 #96
SuccessSuc #4 #69
ExplosiveExp #116 #110
PPAPPA #11 #85
PowerPwr #17 #35
SP+SP+ #17 #81
Pts POPPO #9 #98
HavocHav #3 #93
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #20 #89
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #25
Run ExplRExp #90 #80
PPAExp #20 #36
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #10 #37
Stuff RateStuff #24 #33
TackleTak -  #40
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #70 #86
Pass SuccessPSuc #4 #111
Pass ExplPExl #107 #101
PPAExp #11 #111
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #15 #102
F7 HavocF7 #8 #64
DB HavocDB #5 #121
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #38
SuccessSuc #86 #21
ExplosiveExp #118 #81
PPAPPA #105 #9
PowerPwr #28 #24
SP+SP+ #70 #22
Pts POPPO #116 #18
HavocHav #98 #38
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #78 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #50 #27
Run ExplRExp #126 #42
PPAExp #116 #12
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #3
Stuff RateStuff #113 #1
TackleTak -  #36
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #89 #37
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #25
Pass ExplPExl #57 #91
PPAExp #79 #16
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121 #31
F7 HavocF7 #112 #26
DB HavocDB #63 #57
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Penn State 7.0 (48.5)
Penn State won at Michigan State this year (28-10)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Michigan State last year (28-10)
Penn State beat Michigan State in 2023 (42-0)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Grunkemeyer12317869%1339847.5
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen2101303156.267
Nicholas Singleton123549134.559
Drew Allar3617214.827
Quinton Martin Jr.2010305.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)49552211.373
Devonte Ross (Tr)36501513.975
Kyron Ware-Hudson23288212.531
Luke Reynolds2625709.922

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Zakee Wheatley742031
Dominic DeLuca667243
King Mack (Tr)581113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton4212883
Zane Durant255412
Amare Campbell (Tr)10310341
Dominic DeLuca667243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Elliot Washington II180003
Dominic DeLuca667243

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Malik Spencer523215
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012