Penn State at Michigan State Game Matchup
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (99 - 41)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 1.4 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
MSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Penn State -23.5   (SP+ PSU -28)
Projected Score: PSU: 36 - MSU: 13 (48)
PSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
PSU Travel: 366 miles
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Penn State vs Nevada-45.50.0
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-46.5
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-52.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.5
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-23.5
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-33.5
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa-15
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+5
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana-19
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-23.5
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-19.5
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-20

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-17.50.0
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-26.5
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+11
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-3
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+12
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+15.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+23.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+11
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-8.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)33.152% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)16.539% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1633.13451.3%4.690.8203851762095.354%46%52%51%10%.32
MSU Defense1226.124.741.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1616.51837.9%3.221.3 - - - - - 48%52%39%37%18%.05
MSU Offense1219.320.441.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1626:5120.448%70%4.441.40.81.35.52.3428.9
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1654% (38)52% (9)33.2176.25.331 (17).24 (20)3.42 (10)76% (51)7% (8)0.92 (90)
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1648% (43)39% (27) - - - - -.01 (12)2.37 (3)75% (75)12% (26)0.92 (42)
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1646% (95)51% (4)16.724.3208.88.612.527 (20)9 (48).41 (11)1.5 (107)26% (3)35% (31).46 (20)3% (5)2 (85)
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1652% (96)37% (25) - - - - - - 15 (18).1 (16)1.7 (91)36% (14)27% (25).2 (29)6% (57)2.1 (95)
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 30.31 #4
Penn State's Offense Rating: 30.94 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 0.63 #8
2025 Talent Rating: 1126.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 45% #14
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.7 #3
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.6 #3
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.9 #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 30.31   Michigan State: 5.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 27.7   Michigan State: -0.2




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 5.575 #49
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #34
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 36
Michigan State 13

Projected Total Points: 48
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/24Michigan State0Penn State42Penn StatePenn State -20Penn State42.0Push
202211/26Penn State35Michigan State16Penn StatePenn State -19Push54.5Under
202111/27Michigan State30Penn State27Michigan StatePenn State -3.5Michigan State51.5Over
202012/12Penn State39Michigan State24Penn StatePenn State -14.5Penn State45.5Over
201910/26Michigan State7Penn State28Penn StatePenn State -5.5Penn State41.0Under
201810/13Penn State17Michigan State21Michigan StatePenn State -13.5Michigan State53.5Under
201711/04Michigan State27Penn State24Michigan StatePenn State -10Michigan State46.0Over
201611/26Penn State45Michigan State12Penn StatePenn State -13.5Penn State53.5Over
201511/28Michigan State55Penn State16Michigan StateMichigan State -11Michigan State43.5Over
201411/29Penn State10Michigan State34Michigan StateMichigan State -11.5Michigan State0
201011/27Penn State22Michigan State28Michigan State
200911/21Michigan State14Penn State42Penn State
200811/22Penn State49Michigan State18Penn State
200711/17Michigan State35Penn State31Michigan State
200611/18Penn State17Michigan State13Penn State
200511/19Michigan State22Penn State31Penn State
200411/20Penn State37Michigan State13Penn State
200311/22Michigan State41Penn State10Michigan State
200111/24Michigan State37Penn State42Penn State
200011/17Penn State42Michigan State23Penn State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State855 Overs
Penn State1243 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 85 - 43 - 12 - 3
Road Teams8 - 124 - 53 - 21 - 3

(#4) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 30.31 #4
Offense Rating: 30.94 #2
Defense Rating: 0.63 #8
Overall SP+ Rating: 27.7 #3
Offense SP+ Rating: 40.6 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 12.9 #6
Talent Rating: 1126.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 45% #14
Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.69 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Penn State Notes
(5/23) CBs Harris & Washington a top duo in CFB
(5/11) OL one of CFB's most exp'd, top of contenders
(4/4) CB AJ Harris a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DE Dennis-Sutton/DT Durant top 10 via PFF
(3/18) QB Allar primed for breakout season.
(3/18) WR, are portals Ross/Hudson weapons?
(3/18) RB Allen/Singleton best duo in CFB?
(3/18) OL returns 4/5 starters, a top CFB unit.
(3/18) Def needs replacements, DE Sutton great
(3/18) New DC Knowles hired from Ohio St.
Penn State     Ratings Matchup     Michigan State
Power #4
#49
Off #2
#53
Def #8
#36
Talent #2
#37
SP+ #3
#64
SP+ Off #3
#107
SP+ Def #6
#32

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Michigan State in 2023 (42-0)
Penn State beat Michigan State in 2022 (35-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | MSU
Depth Chart: PSU | MSU
Rosters: PSU | MSU
(#49) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.575 #49
Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32
Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #34
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Michigan State Notes
(5/21) OL looks pretty bad outside OG Gulbin (Wake)
(5/21) If Chiles improves they have WR/TE weapons
(5/21) Def 14 portal adds, 5 DL & 7 DBs
(5/7) WR Fr Marsh big find LY, sneaky great portal adds
(5/7) OL 2/5 back. Awful LY, 3 portal adds, Moore huge
(5/7) RB - Tullis & Frazier lead, not much exp. 1 portal
(4/4) TE Velling a big target, top 10 TE via PFF
(3/19) Def OK LY, need playmakers/pass rush
(3/19) Year 2 for HC Smith, need to show progress
(3/18) QB Chiles must improve, limit TO's


  
Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Ethan Grunkemeyer1250%9014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Corey Smith2215206.978
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross (Tr)7610441113.798
Trebor Pena (Tr)84941911.250
Kyron Ware-Hudson38462312.239
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

View Penn State's Full Roster
Penn State's DC Jim Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakee Wheatley863104
Amare Campbell (Tr)699632
Tony Rojas567254
Zane Durant4210341
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amare Campbell (Tr)699632
Zane Durant4210341
Tony Rojas567254
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
A.J. Harris413005
Zakee Wheatley863104

Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles19232459%241513127.5
Alessio Milivojevic010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Aidan Chiles9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Makhi Frazier72103.08
Brandon Tullis72002.99
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omari Kelly (Tr)53869416.471
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)40705917.668
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Jack Velling36411111.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nikai Martinez513012
Malik Spencer441002
Tracy Revels (Tr)400021
David Santiago (Tr)375423
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Isaac Smith (Tr)314310
Alex VanSumeren163200
Ben Roberts82100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)242115
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Malcolm Bell (Tr)261003