Northern Illinois at Miami (OH) - 2024 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Tuesday, November 19th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Miami (OH) -1.5 (43.0) (-122) Open: -3.5
Miami (OH) 20 - Northern Illinois: 9 (Mid-American)

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

M-OH 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -4.5 (SP+ M-OH -5)
Projected Score: NIU: 20 - M-OH: 25 (45)
M-OH Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
NIU Travel: 270 miles, 1 hrs behind

RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
M-OH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami (OH) vs Northwestern	+4.0	43.0	L 6 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati	+3.5	47.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Miami (OH) at Notre Dame	+27.5	44.0	L 3 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts	-15.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Miami (OH) at Toledo	+4.5	44.0	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/12	Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-3.5	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan	-10.5	48.5	W 46 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-12.5	48.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Wed 11/13	Miami (OH) vs Kent State	-31.0	47.5	W 34 - 7	U	N
Tue 11/19	Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois	-1.5	43.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Miami (OH) at Bowling Green	+3.0	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-2.5	43.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 12/28	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#54 (.21)	42% (62)	17.1	45% (45)	3.21 (50)	180	40% (85)	190	3.4 (102)	#36 (.14)	41% (52)	24.3	44% (84)	37% (21)	3.4 (32)	39.8	1.4	1.2
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	23.5	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	21.7	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
M-OH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	13	17.1	16.3	42.4%	3.4	1.4	19	370	180	190	5	54%	46%	45%	40%	15%	.21
M-OH Defense	14	21.7	22.7	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	13	24.3	27.8	40.7%	3.4	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	37%	13%	.14
M-OH Offense	14	23.5	32.3	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	13	31:30	18.7	42%	50%	4.5	39.8	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.7	1	27.5
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	13	54% (39)	45% (45)	35.8	179.8	5	23 (46)	.21 (36)	3.21 (50)	77% (36)	9% (47)	1.08 (29)
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	13	56% (122)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.14 (69)	3.29 (108)	83% (118)	8% (114)	0.94 (37)
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	13	46% (95)	40% (85)	16.2	28.2	189.8	6.7	11.7	15 (96)	9 (40)	.26 (75)	1.5 (96)	32% (64)	26% (106)	.29 (83)	6% (63)	2.3 (16)
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	13	43% (12)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.17 (18)	1.4 (14)	32% (66)	24% (9)	.29 (55)	5% (115)	2.2 (109)
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 258.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -2.77 Miami (OH): 1.435

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -3.5 Miami (OH): 1.3

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: 1.435 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 288.00 #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 25
Northern Illinois 20

Projected Total Points: 45

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Northern Illinois	14	Miami (OH)	25	Miami (OH) -4.5	Miami (OH)	38.5	Over
2024	11/19	Miami (OH)	20	Northern Illinois	9	Miami (OH) -1.5	Miami (OH)	43.0	Under
2022	11/16	Northern Illinois	23	Miami (OH)	29	Northern Illinois -1	Miami (OH)	44.0	Over
2019	10/19	Miami (OH)	27	Northern Illinois	24	Northern Illinois -1.5	Miami (OH)	48.0	Over
2018	11/14	Northern Illinois	7	Miami (OH)	13	Northern Illinois -6.5	Miami (OH)	48.0	Under
2015	10/17	Miami (OH)	12	Northern Illinois	45	Northern Illinois -15.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2014	10/18	Northern Illinois	51	Miami (OH)	41	Northern Illinois -14.5	Miami (OH)	0
2010	12/03	Miami (OH)	26	Northern Illinois	21
2009	10/24	Miami (OH)	22	Northern Illinois	27
2008	10/11	Northern Illinois	17	Miami (OH)	13
2006	10/08	Miami (OH)	25	Northern Illinois	28
2005	10/05	Northern Illinois	38	Miami (OH)	27
2002	10/12	Miami (OH)	41	Northern Illinois	48

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami (OH)	6	6	4 Overs
Northern Illinois	7	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 7	2 - 5	1 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 6	5 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 1

(#73) NIU at (#75) M-OH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	M-OH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#73	#75
SP+SP+	#84	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#48
OffenseOff	#80	#74
DefenseDef	#24	#33
Spec TeamsST	#38	#41
TalentTal	#91	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#97

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Miami (OH) Notes(11/25) Huge W @ N Ill. Game vs BG for MAC title game
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate
(7/30) Lost top weapons to portal, WR (SC), RB (Ole Miss)
Miami (OH) Injury Report

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	M-OH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#33
SuccessSuc	#62	#48
ExplosiveExp	#84	#3
PPAPPA	#54	#20
PowerPwr	#97	#21
SP+SP+	#115	#43
Pts POPPO	#102	#14
HavocHav	#50	#40

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#90	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#47
Run ExplRExp	#29	#19
PPAExp	#36	#23
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#63	#104
TackleTak	-	#60

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#61
Pass ExplPExl	#96	#1
PPAExp	#75	#27
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#58	#53
F7 HavocF7	#47	#69
DB HavocDB	#63	#20

Miami (OH) on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	NIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#24
SuccessSuc	#122	#52
ExplosiveExp	#17	#5
PPAPPA	#78	#36
PowerPwr	#115	#11
SP+SP+	#98	#32
Pts POPPO	#57	#32
HavocHav	#95	#120

Miami (OH) Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#84
Run ExplRExp	#25	#37
PPAExp	#94	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#125
TackleTak	-	#3

Miami (OH) Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#21
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#14
PPAExp	#59	#18
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#115	#73
F7 HavocF7	#82	#114
DB HavocDB	#107	#115

Program Comparison
M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Yager Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Miami (OH) -1.5 (43.0)
Miami (OH) won vs Northern Illinois this year (20-9)

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Northern Illinois last year (25-14)
Miami (OH) beat Northern Illinois in 2024 (20-9)

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	217	379	57%	2921	21	11	7.7
Henry Hesson	7	17	41%	93	1	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keyon Mozee	178	1098	4	6.2	74
Kevin Davis	50	331	4	6.6	97
Jordan Brunson	53	299	4	5.6	75
Dylan Downing (Tr)	44	152	1	3.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	57	818	7	14.4	72
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Cade McDonald	52	631	3	12.1	51
Kevin Davis	29	234	2	8.1	35

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	122	8	1	2	3
Silas Walters	95	3	0	0	12
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Eli Blakey	89	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Ugwu	59	15	8	16	3
Corey Suttle	36	8	6	10	0
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Adam Trick	37	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Raion Strader	53	0	17
Silas Walters	95	3	12
William Hardrick	26	0	4