Ohio at Miami (OH) - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 7th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Miami (OH) -2.5 (43.5) (-125) Open: -2.5 | 44.5
Ohio 38 - Miami (OH): 3 (MAC Championship)

Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (23 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Game in Dome
M-OH is playing their 5th straight game
OHIO is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -2 (SP+ OHIO -1)
Projected Score: OHIO: 20 - M-OH: 22 (43)
M-OH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OHIO Travel: 214 miles

RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 19 (28 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OHIO Players
M-OH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio at Syracuse	+17.5	47.5	L 22 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ohio vs South Alabama	+1.5	55.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ohio vs Morgan State	-24.5	45.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/21	Ohio at Kentucky	+19.0	42.0	L 6 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio vs Akron	-8.5	46.0	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Ohio at Central Michigan	-3.0	50.5	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Ohio at Miami (OH)	+3.5	43.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/26	Ohio vs Buffalo	-4.0	46.5	W 47 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Ohio at Kent State	-20.5	53.5	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/13	Ohio vs Eastern Michigan	-10.5	51.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Ohio at Toledo	+1.5	47.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Ohio vs Ball State	-17.5	51.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	+2.5	43.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Ohio vs Jacksonville State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami (OH) vs Northwestern	+4.0	43.0	L 6 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati	+3.5	47.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Miami (OH) at Notre Dame	+27.5	44.0	L 3 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts	-15.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Miami (OH) at Toledo	+4.5	44.0	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/12	Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-3.5	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan	-10.5	48.5	W 46 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-12.5	48.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Wed 11/13	Miami (OH) vs Kent State	-31.0	47.5	W 34 - 7	U	N
Tue 11/19	Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois	-1.5	43.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Miami (OH) at Bowling Green	+3.0	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-2.5	43.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 12/28	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)	29.3	47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)	18.1	34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)	24.1	38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)	18.8	46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Offense	14	29.3	23.3	45.8%	4.15	1.6	22	406	214	193	5.2	59%	41%	47%	45%	14%	.24
M-OH Defense	14	18.8	15	43.6%	2.91	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	42%	18%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Defense	14	18.1	23.5	36.9%	3.79	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	34%	40%	20%	.1
M-OH Offense	14	24.1	28.2	40.7%	3.43	1.1	16	325	121	204	4.5	45%	55%	38%	44%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio	14	32:43	21.9	48%	60%	5.5	44.9	1.6	1.5	6.3	2.5	3	27.9
Miami (OH)	14	27:07	15.5	33%	40%	4.8	38.6	1.1	1.4	4.9	2.1	0	39.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense	14	59% (13)	47% (35)	40.7	213.5	5.2	35 (8)	.24 (18)	3.1 (52)	78% (31)	9% (52)	1.12 (13)
M-OH Defense	14	47% (36)	46% (100)	-	-	-	-	.13 (74)	3.24 (102)	68% (38)	10% (67)	0.88 (21)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense	14	45% (15)	34% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (6)	2.49 (8)	74% (69)	13% (13)	1 (72)
M-OH Offense	14	45% (108)	38% (119)	26.6	120.5	4.5	9 (125)	.1 (90)	3.1 (51)	69% (98)	11% (86)	0.96 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense	14	41% (119)	45% (35)	15.5	24.7	192.5	7.8	12.4	15 (98)	12 (85)	.23 (80)	1.4 (128)	29% (32)	37% (13)	.45 (23)	5% (43)	1.8 (120)
M-OH Defense	14	52% (102)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.11 (18)	1.2 (1)	30% (99)	30% (61)	.17 (14)	8% (7)	1.6 (4)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense	14	54% (121)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.22 (60)	1.5 (53)	35% (22)	24% (2)	.18 (19)	7% (40)	2.2 (107)
M-OH Offense	14	55% (28)	44% (48)	15.1	26.6	204.3	7.7	13.5	23 (41)	12 (85)	.22 (87)	1.5 (90)	33% (99)	30% (83)	.27 (90)	7% (111)	2 (81)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -8.26 Miami (OH): -1.065

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: 2.3 Miami (OH): 1.3

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -1.065 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.5

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 22
Ohio 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio 22
Miami (OH) 17

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Miami (OH) 23
Ohio 22

Total Points: 45

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/04	Ohio	24	Miami (OH)	20	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	50.5	Under
2024	10/19	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio	20	Miami (OH) -3.5	Miami (OH)	43.5	Over
2024	12/07	Miami (OH)	3	Ohio	38	Miami (OH) -2.5	Ohio	43.5	Under
2023	10/28	Ohio	16	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio -7.5	Miami (OH)	39.0	Over
2022	11/08	Miami (OH)	21	Ohio	37	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	52.0	Over
2021	11/02	Ohio	35	Miami (OH)	33	Miami (OH) -7	Ohio	54.5	Over
2019	11/06	Ohio	21	Miami (OH)	24	Ohio -7	Miami (OH)	57.5	Under
2018	11/07	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio	28	Ohio -4.5	Miami (OH)	59.0	Under
2017	10/31	Ohio	45	Miami (OH)	28	Ohio -7	Ohio	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Miami (OH)	7	Ohio	17	Ohio -3.5	Ohio	50.0	Under
2015	10/10	Ohio	34	Miami (OH)	3	Ohio -17.5	Ohio	50.5	Under
2014	11/25	Miami (OH)	21	Ohio	24	Ohio -3	NA	52.5	Under
2013	10/26	Ohio	41	Miami (OH)	16	Ohio -24	Ohio	0
2012	10/27	Miami (OH)	23	Ohio	20
2011	11/22	Ohio	21	Miami (OH)	14
2010	10/23	Miami (OH)	13	Ohio	34
2009	10/17	Ohio	28	Miami (OH)	7
2008	11/28	Miami (OH)	26	Ohio	41
2007	11/24	Ohio	38	Miami (OH)	29
2006	11/24	Miami (OH)	24	Ohio	34
2005	11/21	Ohio	7	Miami (OH)	38
2004	09/18	Miami (OH)	40	Ohio	20
2003	11/22	Ohio	31	Miami (OH)	49
2002	11/02	Miami (OH)	38	Ohio	20
2001	10/20	Ohio	24	Miami (OH)	36
2000	11/03	Miami (OH)	27	Ohio	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami (OH)	11	4	5 Overs
Ohio	15	8	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	7 - 5	5 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 7	2 - 2	3 - 5

(#93) OHIO at (#75) M-OH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OHIO	M-OH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#93	#75
SP+SP+	#63	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#48
OffenseOff	#76	#74
DefenseDef	#59	#33
Spec TeamsST	#81	#41
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#97

Ohio Notes(12/18) Promoted OC Brian Smith to HC
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG
(9/1) Game vs Cuse, 255 yds rush (6.5 ypc), QB can't pass
Ohio Injury Report

Miami (OH) Notes(11/25) Huge W @ N Ill. Game vs BG for MAC title game
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate
(7/30) Lost top weapons to portal, WR (SC), RB (Ole Miss)
Miami (OH) Injury Report

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#33
SuccessSuc	#30	#92
ExplosiveExp	#92	#2
PPAPPA	#40	#38
PowerPwr	#68	#21
SP+SP+	#67	#43
Pts POPPO	#47	#6
HavocHav	#42	#35

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#65	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#100
Run ExplRExp	#13	#21
PPAExp	#18	#74
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#102
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#125
TackleTak	-	#60

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#68	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#128	#1
PPAExp	#80	#18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#53
F7 HavocF7	#52	#67
DB HavocDB	#43	#7

Miami (OH) on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#59
SuccessSuc	#97	#10
ExplosiveExp	#61	#92
PPAPPA	#95	#23
PowerPwr	#115	#63
SP+SP+	#98	#47
Pts POPPO	#108	#68
HavocHav	#107	#14

Miami (OH) Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#92	#79
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#3
Run ExplRExp	#70	#72
PPAExp	#90	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#51	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#13
TackleTak	-	#123

Miami (OH) Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#53
PPAExp	#87	#60
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#115	#26
F7 HavocF7	#86	#13
DB HavocDB	#111	#40

Program Comparison
M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 30° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 15
Miami (OH) -2.5 (43.5)
Ohio won at Miami (OH) this year (38-3)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Miami (OH) last year (38-3)
Miami (OH) beat Ohio in 2023 (30-16)
Ohio beat Miami (OH) in 2022 (37-21)

OHIO's OC Brian Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	195	295	66%	2423	13	11	8.2
Nick Poulos	22	49	45%	271	2	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Parker Navarro	160	1047	18	6.5	55
Rickey Hunt	76	393	2	5.2	59
Nick Poulos	28	149	1	5.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)	78	1235	8	15.8	75
Chase Hendricks	40	471	1	11.8	56
Rodney Harris II	23	299	0	13.0	52
Mason Williams	19	211	2	11.1	21

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Leake (Tr)	94	5	1	1	3
Dustin Johnson (Tr)	77	2	0	0	4
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradley Weaver	44	16	9	10	0
Marcel Walker (Tr)	56	8	6	7	2
Shay Taylor	74	11	4	3	4
Kadin Schmitz	32	4	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Roman Parodie	51	0	10
DJ Walker	53	7	7
Tank Pearson	50	2	6

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	217	379	57%	2921	21	11	7.7
Henry Hesson	7	17	41%	93	1	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keyon Mozee	178	1098	4	6.2	74
Kevin Davis	50	331	4	6.6	97
Jordan Brunson	53	299	4	5.6	75
Dylan Downing (Tr)	44	152	1	3.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	57	818	7	14.4	72
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Cade McDonald	52	631	3	12.1	51
Kevin Davis	29	234	2	8.1	35

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	122	8	1	2	3
Silas Walters	95	3	0	0	12
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Eli Blakey	89	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Ugwu	59	15	8	16	3
Corey Suttle	36	8	6	10	0
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Adam Trick	37	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Raion Strader	53	0	17
Silas Walters	95	3	12
William Hardrick	26	0	4