Cincinnati at Miami (OH) - 2024 Matchup Preview

Cincinnati Bearcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -3.5 (47.5) (-150) Open: -2.0 | 45.5
Cincinnati 27 - Miami (OH): 16

Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

M-OH coming off BYE
Our Line: Miami (OH) -0.5 (SP+ M-OH -1)
Projected Score: CIN: 23 - M-OH: 23 (46)
CIN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
CIN Travel: 29 miles

RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 19 (28 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CIN Players
M-OH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Cincinnati vs Towson	-33.5	56.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/7	Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	62.5	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Cincinnati at Miami (OH)	-3.5	47.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Cincinnati vs Houston	-4.0	47.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Cincinnati at Texas Tech	+3.0	60.0	L 41 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Cincinnati at UCF	+2.0	58.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Cincinnati vs Arizona State	-5.5	51.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Cincinnati at Colorado	+6.0	57.0	L 23 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Cincinnati vs West Virginia	-5.5	54.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/16	Cincinnati at Iowa State	+7.0	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/23	Cincinnati at Kansas State	+7.5	54.5	L 15 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Cincinnati vs TCU	+2.5	58.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami (OH) vs Northwestern	+4.0	43.0	L 6 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati	+3.5	47.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Miami (OH) at Notre Dame	+27.5	44.0	L 3 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts	-15.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Miami (OH) at Toledo	+4.5	44.0	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/12	Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-3.5	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan	-10.5	48.5	W 46 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-12.5	48.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Wed 11/13	Miami (OH) vs Kent State	-31.0	47.5	W 34 - 7	U	N
Tue 11/19	Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois	-1.5	43.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Miami (OH) at Bowling Green	+3.0	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-2.5	43.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 12/28	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)	25.2	44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)	24.6	46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)	24.1	38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)	18.8	46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Offense	12	25.2	23.7	44.7%	3.33	1.5	22	422	185	237	5.2	50%	50%	44%	45%	16%	.21
M-OH Defense	14	18.8	15	43.6%	2.91	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	42%	18%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Defense	12	24.6	30.3	42.2%	3.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	39%	16%	.18
M-OH Offense	14	24.1	28.2	40.7%	3.43	1.1	16	325	121	204	4.5	45%	55%	38%	44%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Cincinnati	12	31:42	22.1	42%	55%	5.3	44.4	1.5	1.2	5.4	1.6	0	26.4
Miami (OH)	14	27:07	15.5	33%	40%	4.8	38.6	1.1	1.4	4.9	2.1	0	39.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Offense	12	50% (72)	44% (67)	35.3	185	5.2	19 (73)	.15 (59)	3.03 (69)	71% (84)	11% (93)	1.07 (34)
M-OH Defense	14	47% (36)	46% (100)	-	-	-	-	.13 (74)	3.24 (102)	68% (38)	10% (67)	0.88 (21)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Defense	12	51% (75)	46% (94)	-	-	-	-	.14 (77)	3.19 (98)	73% (63)	11% (51)	0.95 (49)
M-OH Offense	14	45% (108)	38% (119)	26.6	120.5	4.5	9 (125)	.1 (90)	3.1 (51)	69% (98)	11% (86)	0.96 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Offense	12	50% (63)	45% (32)	21	32.9	236.5	7.2	11.3	18 (68)	7 (26)	.26 (63)	1.4 (121)	30% (41)	36% (20)	.5 (10)	5% (33)	2.1 (67)
M-OH Defense	14	52% (102)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.11 (18)	1.2 (1)	30% (99)	30% (61)	.17 (14)	8% (7)	1.6 (4)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Defense	12	49% (63)	39% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.23 (71)	1.7 (108)	31% (93)	31% (79)	.34 (86)	5% (87)	2 (66)
M-OH Offense	14	55% (28)	44% (48)	15.1	26.6	204.3	7.7	13.5	23 (41)	12 (85)	.22 (87)	1.5 (90)	33% (99)	30% (83)	.27 (90)	7% (111)	2 (81)

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 1.93 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 1.93 Miami (OH): 1.435

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: -0.1 Miami (OH): 1.3

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: 1.435 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 23
Cincinnati 23

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami (OH) 25
Cincinnati 15

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Miami (OH) 27
Cincinnati 21

Total Points: 48

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Miami (OH)	16	Cincinnati	27	Cincinnati -3.5	Cincinnati	47.5	Under
2023	09/16	Cincinnati	24	Miami (OH)	31	Cincinnati -14.5	Miami (OH)	44.5	Over
2022	09/17	Miami (OH)	17	Cincinnati	38	Cincinnati -24	Miami (OH)	51.0	Over
2021	09/04	Cincinnati	49	Miami (OH)	14	Cincinnati -22.5	Cincinnati	49.0	Over
2019	09/14	Cincinnati	35	Miami (OH)	13	Cincinnati -17	Cincinnati	49.5	Under
2018	09/08	Miami (OH)	0	Cincinnati	21	Miami (OH) -1.5	Cincinnati	48.0	Under
2017	09/16	Miami (OH)	17	Cincinnati	21	Miami (OH) -3.5	Cincinnati	49.0	Under
2016	09/24	Cincinnati	27	Miami (OH)	20	Cincinnati -19.5	Miami (OH)	55.5	Under
2015	09/19	Miami (OH)	33	Cincinnati	37	Cincinnati -19	Miami (OH)	59.5	Over
2014	09/20	Cincinnati	31	Miami (OH)	24	Cincinnati -32	Miami (OH)	0
2013	09/21	Miami (OH)	0	Cincinnati	14	Cincinnati -24	Miami (OH)	0
2012	10/06	Cincinnati	52	Miami (OH)	14
2011	10/01	Miami (OH)	0	Cincinnati	27
2010	10/09	Cincinnati	45	Miami (OH)	3
2009	10/03	Miami (OH)	13	Cincinnati	37
2008	09/20	Cincinnati	45	Miami (OH)	20
2007	09/15	Miami (OH)	10	Cincinnati	47
2006	09/30	Cincinnati	24	Miami (OH)	10
2005	09/28	Miami (OH)	44	Cincinnati	16
2004	09/11	Cincinnati	45	Miami (OH)	26
2003	09/27	Miami (OH)	42	Cincinnati	37
2002	10/05	Cincinnati	26	Miami (OH)	31
2001	09/22	Miami (OH)	21	Cincinnati	14
2000	10/27	Cincinnati	45	Miami (OH)	15

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami (OH)	5	6	4 Overs
Cincinnati	19	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 11	5 - 6	2 - 5	3 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 13	6 - 5	1 - 3	5 - 2

(#56) CIN at (#75) M-OH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CIN	M-OH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#56	#75
SP+SP+	#72	#68
Perf GradeGrade	#70	#48
OffenseOff	#56	#74
DefenseDef	#69	#33
Spec TeamsST	#90	#41
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#97

Cincinnati Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, down 27-3 at H, Def killed by K St
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge
(7/30) All B12 DT Corleone out indefintely (7/3)
Cincinnati Injury Report

Miami (OH) Notes(11/25) Huge W @ N Ill. Game vs BG for MAC title game
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate
(7/30) Lost top weapons to portal, WR (SC), RB (Ole Miss)
Miami (OH) Injury Report

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	M-OH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#33
SuccessSuc	#43	#92
ExplosiveExp	#79	#2
PPAPPA	#59	#38
PowerPwr	#44	#21
SP+SP+	#79	#43
Pts POPPO	#118	#6
HavocHav	#69	#35

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#34	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#100
Run ExplRExp	#34	#21
PPAExp	#59	#74
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#102
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#125
TackleTak	-	#60

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#32	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#1
PPAExp	#63	#18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#53
F7 HavocF7	#93	#67
DB HavocDB	#33	#7

Miami (OH) on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	CIN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#69
SuccessSuc	#97	#76
ExplosiveExp	#61	#75
PPAPPA	#95	#75
PowerPwr	#115	#85
SP+SP+	#98	#57
Pts POPPO	#108	#40
HavocHav	#107	#67

Miami (OH) Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#92	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#94
Run ExplRExp	#70	#49
PPAExp	#90	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#51	#98
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#56
TackleTak	-	#69

Miami (OH) Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#108
PPAExp	#87	#71
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#115	#111
F7 HavocF7	#86	#51
DB HavocDB	#111	#87

Program Comparison
M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Yager Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Cincinnati 3.5 (47.5)
Cincinnati won at Miami (OH) this year (27-16)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) last year (27-16)
Miami (OH) beat Cincinnati in 2023 (31-24)
Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) in 2022 (38-17)

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	249	389	64%	2813	18	7	7.2
Brady Lichtenberg	3	5	60%	25	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	204	1153	4	5.7	46
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	106	445	9	4.2	41
Evan Pryor (Tr)	56	418	6	7.5	65
Chance Williams (Tr)	15	67	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson	58	735	4	12.7	42
Joe Royer (Tr)	51	532	3	10.4	38
Tony Johnson (Tr)	49	452	6	9.2	23
Jamoi Mayes	29	349	1	12.0	52

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Jake Golday (Tr)	57	7	1	0	2
Antwan Peek Jr.	54	1	0	0	1
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Eric Phillips	19	5	3	6	0
Dontay Corleone	26	5	3	4	0
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Young	35	1	5
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	44	3	5
Josh Minkins (Tr)	45	2	4

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	217	379	57%	2921	21	11	7.7
Henry Hesson	7	17	41%	93	1	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keyon Mozee	178	1098	4	6.2	74
Kevin Davis	50	331	4	6.6	97
Jordan Brunson	53	299	4	5.6	75
Dylan Downing (Tr)	44	152	1	3.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	57	818	7	14.4	72
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Cade McDonald	52	631	3	12.1	51
Kevin Davis	29	234	2	8.1	35

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	122	8	1	2	3
Silas Walters	95	3	0	0	12
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Eli Blakey	89	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Ugwu	59	15	8	16	3
Corey Suttle	36	8	6	10	0
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Adam Trick	37	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Raion Strader	53	0	17
Silas Walters	95	3	12
William Hardrick	26	0	4