Colorado State at Oregon State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Colorado State Rams at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (6:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -10 (47.0) (-380) Open: -14.0
Oregon State 39 - Colorado State: 31

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CSU coming off BYE
ORST coming off BYE
Our Line: Colorado State -3.5 (SP+ CSU -1)
Projected Score: CSU: 26 - ORST: 22 (48)
ORST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
CSU Travel: 964 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CSU Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	18.5	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	30.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6
ORST	#13 (.32)	48% (14)	17.6	52% (6)	3.24 (43)	167	45% (39)	242	4.78 (11)	#39 (.14)	44% (91)	29.4	46% (102)	43% (81)	3.42 (37)	50.1	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Offense	12	18.5	16.6	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17
ORST Defense	13	29.4	25.3	43.8%	3.42	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	43%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Defense	12	30.8	36	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18
ORST Offense	13	17.6	21.7	48.1%	4.78	1	21	409	167	242	4.9	52%	47%	52%	45%	14%	.32

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1
Oregon State	13	30:39	21.4	39%	57%	5.5	50.1	1	1.5	5.5	2.7	2	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)
ORST Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.09 (35)	2.9 (36)	84% (122)	10% (61)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)
ORST Offense	13	52% (51)	52% (6)	34.2	167.1	4.9	26 (30)	.23 (26)	3.24 (43)	73% (79)	9% (43)	0.97 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)
ORST Defense	13	53% (114)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.26 (60)	1.6 (61)	33% (54)	33% (111)	.3 (59)	7% (22)	2 (46)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)
ORST Offense	13	47% (82)	45% (39)	17.1	29.2	242.2	8.3	14.2	26 (31)	8 (30)	.44 (21)	1.8 (17)	32% (77)	37% (17)	.56 (9)	6% (48)	2.2 (24)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -4.04 Oregon State: -8.345

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -5.7 Oregon State: -6.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -8.345 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 281.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 26
Oregon State 22

Projected Total Points: 48

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Oregon State	39	Colorado State	31	Oregon State -10	Colorado State	47.0	Over
2017	08/26	Colorado State	58	Oregon State	27	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	60.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	1	0	2 Overs
Colorado State	1	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#78) CSU at (#113) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CSU	ORST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#78	#113
SP+SP+	#93	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#46	#98
OffenseOff	#40	#55
DefenseDef	#46	#131
Spec TeamsST	#83	#28
TalentTal	#96	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(12/19) Signed QB Maalik Murphy (Duke)
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
(9/14) Outclassed by OU. Gave up 500 yds McCoy meh
Oregon State Injury Report

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	ORST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#131
SuccessSuc	#74	#91
ExplosiveExp	#99	#36
PPAPPA	#81	#39
PowerPwr	#74	#129
SP+SP+	#92	#107
Pts POPPO	#86	#37
HavocHav	#65	#38

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#92	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#102
Run ExplRExp	#133	#10
PPAExp	#130	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#58
TackleTak	-	#84

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#61
PPAExp	#43	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#13	#101
F7 HavocF7	#15	#61
DB HavocDB	#124	#22

Oregon State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	CSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#55	#46
SuccessSuc	#14	#80
ExplosiveExp	#54	#31
PPAPPA	#13	#65
PowerPwr	#79	#69
SP+SP+	#73	#85
Pts POPPO	#11	#31
HavocHav	#42	#70

Oregon State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#50	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#61
Run ExplRExp	#85	#90
PPAExp	#26	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#40	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#47
TackleTak	-	#70

Oregon State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#17	#10
PPAExp	#21	#87
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#95
F7 HavocF7	#43	#24
DB HavocDB	#48	#126

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Oregon State -10.0 (47.0)
Oregon State won vs Colorado State this year (39-31)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat Colorado State in 2024 (39-31)

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Ben Gulbranson	78	128	61%	943	4	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Zakaih Saez	24	3	1	2	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Andre Jordan	27	2	4
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4