UTEP at Colorado State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (5:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -8.5 (49.0) (-305) Open: 0.0
Colorado State 27 - UTEP: 17

Miners (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UTEP 2nd straight Road Game
CSU 3rd straight Home Game
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
UTEP is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -21 (SP+ CSU -17)
Projected Score: UTEP: 15 - CSU: 36 (51)
CSU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
UTEP Travel: 613 miles

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTEP at Nebraska	+27.5	49.0	L 7 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTEP vs Southern Utah	-6.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	UTEP at Liberty	+23.5	57.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	UTEP at Colorado State	+8.5	49.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/3	UTEP vs Sam Houston	+10.0	49.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/10	UTEP at Western Kentucky	+19.0	55.5	L 17 - 44	O	N
Wed 10/16	UTEP vs Florida International	+7.0	47.0	W 30 - 21	O	Y
Tue 10/22	UTEP at Louisiana Tech	+6.5	49.0	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	UTEP vs Middle Tennessee	-2.0	48.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	UTEP vs Kennesaw State	-4.5	42.0	W 43 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UTEP at Tennessee	+41.5	54.0	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/30	UTEP at New Mexico State	+3.5	51.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#80 (.17)	39% (103)	23.3	43% (62)	3.05 (83)	144	36% (113)	218	3.59 (93)	#109 (.25)	43% (88)	30.4	48% (122)	38% (23)	4.62 (127)	58.8	1.5	1
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	18.5	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	30.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	20.2	39.5%	3.59	1.5	18	362	144	218	3.9	53%	46%	43%	36%	16%	.17
CSU Defense	12	30.8	27.1	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	37.4	43.4%	4.62	1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	48%	38%	15%	.25
CSU Offense	12	18.5	19.9	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	31:25	18.3	33%	45%	6.8	58.8	1.5	1	4.3	2	1	26.1
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	53% (42)	43% (62)	37.3	144.3	3.9	16 (89)	.09 (105)	3.05 (83)	76% (44)	9% (51)	0.89 (119)
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	57% (126)	48% (122)	-	-	-	-	.28 (127)	3.35 (113)	76% (89)	9% (106)	1.1 (112)
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	46% (94)	36% (113)	14.8	27.5	217.7	7.9	14.7	13 (111)	12 (85)	.29 (68)	1.9 (6)	32% (82)	29% (82)	.34 (65)	7% (104)	2.1 (37)
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	43% (8)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.26 (61)	1.7 (104)	32% (67)	31% (87)	.48 (126)	7% (50)	2.3 (128)
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -23.79 #127
UTEP's Offense Rating: 10.45 #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 12.53 #95
2024 Talent Rating: 195.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
UTEP's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UTEP's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -23.79 Colorado State: -2.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -22.7 Colorado State: -5.7

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -2.37 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 36
UTEP 15

Projected Total Points: 51

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Colorado State	27	UTEP	17	Colorado State -8.5	Colorado State	49.0	Under
2013	09/28	Colorado State	59	UTEP	42	Colorado State -10	Colorado State	0
2011	10/22	UTEP	31	Colorado State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	2	2	0 Overs
UTEP	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#127) UTEP at (#78) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#127	#78
SP+SP+	#130	#93
Perf GradeGrade	#130	#46
OffenseOff	#127	#40
DefenseDef	#105	#46
Spec TeamsST	#136	#83
TalentTal	#118	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

UTEP Notes(12/11) Joining MWC on July 1, 2026
(10/23) Locklear benched in La Tech, Fr JD Pickles no arm
(10/18) QB Locklear #1 (benched earlier) w/ McConnell out
(10/17) Def 4 TOs, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 FIU QBs knocked out
(10/16) Every Defensive starter listed as SR or GR
(10/10) Better vs WKU, expl plays. Def just can't hold up
(10/3) Off a mess, TO's, flags, drops. Def plays hard
(10/2) Def better than #'s, Off is awful. WR worst
(9/8) Outrushed 268-124 by S. Utah? Run D awful
(8/3) Front 7 decimated, will be bad vs run TY
(7/30) Portal 27 in/38 out, took 11 portals from A Peay
(7/30) QB Battle Locklear(A.P.)/McConnell some PT LY
UTEP Injury Report

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#46
SuccessSuc	#103	#80
ExplosiveExp	#49	#31
PPAPPA	#80	#65
PowerPwr	#128	#69
SP+SP+	#131	#85
Pts POPPO	#93	#31
HavocHav	#72	#70

UTEP Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#121	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#61
Run ExplRExp	#119	#90
PPAExp	#105	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#47
TackleTak	-	#70

UTEP Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#6	#10
PPAExp	#68	#87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#95
F7 HavocF7	#51	#24
DB HavocDB	#104	#126

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#105
SuccessSuc	#74	#88
ExplosiveExp	#99	#90
PPAPPA	#81	#109
PowerPwr	#74	#95
SP+SP+	#92	#113
Pts POPPO	#86	#127
HavocHav	#65	#88

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#92	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#122
Run ExplRExp	#133	#112
PPAExp	#130	#127
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#72
TackleTak	-	#51

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#104
PPAExp	#43	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#13	#81
F7 HavocF7	#15	#106
DB HavocDB	#124	#50

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Colorado State -8.5 (49.0)
Colorado State won vs UTEP this year (27-17)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat UTEP in 2024 (27-17)

UTEP's OC Jake Brown (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	149	236	63%	1591	10	6	6.7
Cade McConnell	40	71	56%	540	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)	191	754	4	3.9	42
Ezell Jolly	64	248	1	3.9	14
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	80	237	2	3.0	18
JP Pickles	39	133	1	3.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)	47	761	8	16.2	76
Kam Thomas (Tr)	46	512	2	11.1	69
Trey Goodman (Tr)	47	469	0	10.0	37
Jaden Smith (Tr)	21	177	0	8.4	41

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC J. J. Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Hopkins (Tr)	87	8	1	0	1
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	45	9	8	6	1
Kyran Duhon	43	7	7	0	2
Kadarion Johnson	39	8	4	1	1
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Josiah Allen	61	5	2	0	5
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8