Miami (OH) vs Northwestern Game Matchup

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Northwestern -4 (43.0) (-148) Open: -4.0 | 43.0
Northwestern 13 - Miami (OH): 6

RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 19 (23 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Miami (OH) -8 (SP+ M-OH -9.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 26 - NW: 18 (43)
NW Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 234 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
M-OH Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami (OH) vs Northwestern	+4.0	43.0	L 6 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati	+3.5	47.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Miami (OH) at Notre Dame	+27.5	44.0	L 3 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts	-15.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Miami (OH) at Toledo	+4.5	44.0	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/12	Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-3.5	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan	-10.5	48.5	W 46 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-12.5	48.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Wed 11/13	Miami (OH) vs Kent State	-31.0	47.5	W 34 - 7	U	N
Tue 11/19	Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois	-1.5	43.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Miami (OH) at Bowling Green	+3.0	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-2.5	43.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 12/28	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	24.1	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	18.8	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	17.8	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	26.3	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	24.1	23.2	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18
NW Defense	13	26.3	26.3	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	18.8	21	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1
NW Offense	13	17.8	17.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -3.43 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 592.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.43 Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 1.3 Northwestern: -8.2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 26
Northwestern 18

Projected Total Points: 43

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Northwestern	13	Miami (OH)	6	Northwestern	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	43.0	Under
2022	09/24	Northwestern	14	Miami (OH)	17	Miami (OH)	Northwestern -7.5	Miami (OH)	50.0	Under
2009	10/10	Northwestern	16	Miami (OH)	6	Northwestern
2006	08/31	Miami (OH)	3	Northwestern	21	Northwestern
2003	09/13	Northwestern	14	Miami (OH)	44	Miami (OH)

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	3	1	0 Overs
Miami (OH)	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#75) Miami (OH) Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.43 #75
Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43
Talent Rating: 592.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.43 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 2.91 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Miami (OH) Notes
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate

Miami (OH) Ratings Matchup Northwestern

Power #75

#100

Off #115

#125

Def #21

#83

Talent #77

#50

SP+ #68

#101

SP+ Off #98

#124

SP+ Def #43

#51

Rematch from Week 1
Northwestern -4.0 (43.0)
Northwestern won vs Miami (OH) this year (13-6)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Miami (OH) last year (13-6)
Miami (OH) beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: M-OH | NW
Depth Chart: M-OH | NW
Rosters: M-OH | NW

(#100) Northwestern Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.02 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Awful Pass Success 36%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.74 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 46%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Northwestern Notes
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job

Miami (OH)'s OC Patrick Welsh

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Henry Hesson	7	17	41%	93	1	0	5.5
Javon Tracy	1	1	100%	30	1	0	30.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Brunson	53	299	4	5.6	75
Dylan Downing (Tr)	44	152	1	3.5	15
Henry Hesson	7	17	0	2.4	9
Nate Milanowski	4	8	0	2.0	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	57	818	7	14.4	72
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Kamryn Perry (Tr)	10	166	0	16.6	40
Andre Johnson (Tr)	7	120	0	17.1	44

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

Miami (OH)'s DC Bill Brechin

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Silas Walters	95	3	0	0	12
Eli Blakey	89	1	0	0	2
Corban Hondru	70	4	2	2	1
Raion Strader	53	0	0	0	17

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adam Trick	37	6	4	2	0
Savio Frazier (Tr)	24	5	3	4	2
Corban Hondru	70	4	2	2	1
Christian Mckinney	3	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Raion Strader	53	0	17
Silas Walters	95	3	12
William Hardrick	26	0	4

Northwestern's OC Zach Lujan

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28
CJ Johnson II	11	121	0	11.0	23
Frank Covey IV	10	98	0	9.8	27
Joseph Himon II	15	96	1	6.4	22

View Northwestern's Full Roster

Northwestern's DC Tim McGarigle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	1
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	3
Robert Fitzgerald	46	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	5
Devin Turner	51	2	3