Miami (OH) at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, August 31st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Northwestern -4 (43.0) (-148)  Open: -4.0 | 43.0
Northwestern 13 - Miami (OH): 6

 
RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 19 (23 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Miami (OH) -8   (SP+ M-OH -9.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 26 - NW: 18 (44)
NW Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 234 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami (OH) vs Northwestern+4.043.0L 6 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati+3.547.5L 16 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Miami (OH) at Notre Dame+27.544.0L 3 - 28UY
Sat 9/28 Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts-15.544.5W 23 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Miami (OH) at Toledo+4.544.0L 20 - 30ON
Sat 10/12 Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-3.045.5W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/19 Miami (OH) vs Ohio-3.543.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 10/26 Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan-10.548.5W 46 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Miami (OH) at Ball State-12.548.5W 27 - 21UN
Wed 11/13 Miami (OH) vs Kent State-31.047.5W 34 - 7UN
Tue 11/19 Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois-1.543.0W 20 - 9UY
Fri 11/29 Miami (OH) at Bowling Green+3.037.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 12/7 Miami (OH) vs Ohio-2.543.5L 3 - 38UN
Sat 12/28 Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.042.5W 43 - 17OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Northwestern vs Miami (OH)-4.043.0W 13 - 6UY
Fri 9/6 Northwestern vs Duke-2.537.5L 20 - 26ON
Sat 9/14 Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois-26.538.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/21 Northwestern at Washington+11.542.5L 5 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Northwestern vs Indiana+12.540.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 10/11 Northwestern at Maryland+11.045.0W 37 - 10OY
Sat 10/19 Northwestern vs Wisconsin+9.542.5L 3 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Northwestern at Iowa+16.538.5L 14 - 40ON
Sat 11/2 Northwestern at Purdue+3.044.5W 26 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Northwestern vs Ohio State+28.043.5L 7 - 31UY
Sat 11/23 Northwestern at Michigan+10.535.5L 6 - 50ON
Sat 11/30 Northwestern vs Illinois+8.542.5L 28 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)24.138% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)18.846% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)17.839% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)26.344% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)38% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)46% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1424.123.240.7%3.431.1163251212044.545%55%38%44%18%.15
NW Defense1226.326.345%3.741.3 - - - - - 47%53%44%46%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1418.82143.6%2.911.4 - - - - - 47%52%46%42%18%.12
NW Offense1217.817.837.1%3.021.516285991863.445%54%39%36%19%.02

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1427:0715.533%40%4.838.61.11.44.92.1039.1
Northwestern1229:491633%50%4.838.81.51.34.81.9328
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1445% (108)38% (119)26.6120.54.59 (125).1 (90)3.1 (51)69% (98)11% (86)0.96 (70)
NW Defense1247% (26)44% (80) - - - - .07 (42)2.99 (63)69% (47)8% (107)0.86 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1447% (36)46% (100) - - - - .13 (74)3.24 (102)68% (38)10% (67)0.88 (21)
NW Offense1245% (106)39% (113)29.398.63.412 (114).07 (102)2.63 (124)66% (112)11% (98)1.1 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1455% (28)44% (48)15.126.6204.37.713.523 (41)12 (85).22 (87)1.5 (90)33% (99)30% (83).27 (90)7% (111)2 (81)
NW Defense1253% (110)46% (117) - - - - - - 10 (66).25 (77)1.4 (13)27% (128)35% (116).28 (55)7% (33)1.8 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1452% (102)42% (74) - - - - - - 11 (52).11 (18)1.2 (1)30% (99)30% (61).17 (14)8% (7)1.6 (4)
NW Offense1254% (31)36% (116)17.632.7186.15.710.67 (130)11 (72).02 (132)1.3 (134)35% (119)31% (79).2 (109)8% (121)1.8 (119)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -3.43 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.43   Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 1.3   Northwestern: -8.2




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 26
Northwestern 18


Total Points: 44

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Northwestern13Miami (OH)6NorthwesternNorthwestern -4Northwestern43.0Under
202209/24Northwestern14Miami (OH)17Miami (OH)Northwestern -7.5Miami (OH)50.0Under
200910/10Northwestern16Miami (OH)6Northwestern
200608/31Miami (OH)3Northwestern21Northwestern
200309/13Northwestern14Miami (OH)44Miami (OH)
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern310 Overs
Miami (OH)212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 31 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams3 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#75) Miami (OH) Info
Power Rating: -3.43 #75
Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.43 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Great in Scoring Position 2.91 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 4 - 2 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Miami (OH) Notes
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate

Miami (OH) Highlights
Miami (OH) defense does not give up big plays (#25)
Miami (OH) defense is really good in red zone (#102)
Miami (OH) Secondary is very good (#66)

Miami (OH) Deficiencies
Miami (OH) offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#101)
Miami (OH) run game is really bad (#104)
Miami (OH) offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Miami (OH) Does Not Stuff Runs (#126)
Miami (OH) has a bad defensive line (#131)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNWM-OH
OverallOver#79#35
OffenseOff#107#60
DefenseDef#35#26
Special TeamsST#100#35
PassingPass#105#94
RushingRush#97#66
Run BlockRBLK#65#14
Pass BlockPBLK#55#99
Route RunningWR Rt#104#44
TacklingTkl#88#53
Run DefenseR Def#60#42
Pass Rush DefPRush#36#48
Coverage DefCov#40#26

Rematch from Week 1
Northwestern -4.0 (43.0)
Northwestern won vs Miami (OH) this year (13-6)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Miami (OH) last year (13-6)
Miami (OH) beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: M-OH | NW
Depth Chart: M-OH | NW
Rosters: M-OH | NW
(#100) Northwestern Info
Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.02 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Awful Pass Success 36%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.74 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Awful Pass Def Success 46%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Record at home: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Northwestern Notes
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job

Northwestern Highlights
Northwestern defense does not give up big plays (#66)
Northwestern commits very few Penalties (#38)

Northwestern Deficiencies
Northwestern has a really bad Offense
Northwestern Can Not Run the Ball (#51)
Northwestern offense is really bad (#69)
Northwestern offense is not Explosive (#115)
Northwestern Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#61)
Northwestern offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#135)
Northwestern run game is really bad (#53)
Northwestern pass game is really bad (#70)
Northwestern offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Northwestern has a bad defense (#55)


  
Miami (OH)'s OC Patrick Welsh
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brett Gabbert21737957%292121117.7
Henry Hesson71741%93105.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Keyon Mozee178109846.274
Kevin Davis5033146.697
Jordan Brunson5329945.675
Dylan Downing (Tr)4415213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Tracy57818714.472
Reginald Virgil41816919.975
Cade McDonald52631312.151
Kevin Davis2923428.135

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster
Miami (OH)'s DC Bill Brechin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Salopek1228123
Silas Walters9530012
Ty Wise8911521
Eli Blakey891002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brian Ugwu59158163
Corey Suttle3686100
Ty Wise8911521
Adam Trick376420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raion Strader5300017
Silas Walters9530012
William Hardrick260004

Northwestern's OC Zach Lujan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Lausch15929654%1714785.8
Mike Wright (Tr)396758%356015.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Porter12650164.044
Joseph Himon II5225724.951
Jack Lausch8721322.429
Caleb Komolafe5013902.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
A.J. Henning59603410.246
Bryce Kirtz39598015.355
Thomas Gordon2725219.326
Cam Porter2317407.628

View Northwestern's Full Roster
Northwestern's DC Tim McGarigle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Uihlein844201
Xander Mueller575114
Theran Johnson5340010
Devin Turner512003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard337671
Anto Saka155440
Michael Kilbane203300
Mac Uihlein844201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Theran Johnson5340010
Josh Fussell391005
Xander Mueller575114