Utah State at Colorado State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams

Friday, November 29th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Colorado State -5.5 (56.5) (-210) Open: -5.5 | 60.5
Colorado State 42 - Utah State: 37 (Mountain West)

Aggies (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -9 (SP+ CSU -5)
Projected Score: USU: 23 - CSU: 32 (56)
CSU Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
USU Travel: 359 miles

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Utah State vs Robert Morris	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Utah State at USC	+30.5	62.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/14	Utah State vs Utah	+20.5	43.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Utah State at Temple	-6.5	53.5	L 29 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Utah State at Boise State	+28.0	66.5	L 30 - 62	O	N
Fri 10/11	Utah State vs UNLV	+19.0	67.5	L 34 - 50	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Utah State vs New Mexico	+1.0	78.5	L 45 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/26	Utah State at Wyoming	-2.5	57.0	W 27 - 25	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Utah State at Washington State	+20.5	69.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Utah State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	62.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Utah State vs San Diego State	-5.0	60.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Utah State at Colorado State	+5.5	56.5	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#50 (.22)	42% (67)	30.9	45% (52)	3.36 (19)	184	42% (68)	254	3.27 (109)	#98 (.23)	45% (114)	28.7	49% (124)	43% (82)	4.41 (119)	70.8	1.9	1.5
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	18.5	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	30.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	30.9	25.2	42.2%	3.27	1.9	22	439	184	254	4.8	48%	50%	45%	42%	20%	.22
CSU Defense	12	30.8	27.1	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	28.7	37	45.4%	4.41	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	49%	43%	18%	.23
CSU Offense	12	18.5	19.9	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	26:56	21.7	36%	56%	7.5	70.8	1.9	1.5	5.5	1.8	3	29.2
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	48% (89)	45% (52)	38.2	184.5	4.8	18 (77)	.21 (33)	3.36 (19)	77% (40)	12% (104)	1 (68)
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	54% (113)	49% (124)	-	-	-	-	.18 (93)	3.1 (68)	83% (118)	11% (39)	0.93 (34)
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	50% (56)	42% (68)	20.7	33.5	254.2	7.6	12.3	35 (7)	19 (131)	.34 (48)	1.8 (19)	33% (87)	33% (53)	.42 (40)	8% (122)	2.2 (30)
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	45% (22)	43% (82)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.31 (95)	1.6 (71)	30% (108)	31% (77)	.31 (70)	7% (23)	1.9 (32)
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -12.03 #105
Utah State's Offense Rating: 24.87 #19
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.16 #123
2024 Talent Rating: 201.00 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Utah State's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Utah State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.4 #106
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #45
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -12.03 Colorado State: -2.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -10.4 Colorado State: -5.7

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -2.37 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 32
Utah State 23

Projected Total Points: 56

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/29	Colorado State	42	Utah State	37	Colorado State -5.5	Utah State	56.5	Over
2023	10/07	Utah State	44	Colorado State	24	Colorado State -3	Utah State	62.0	Over
2022	10/15	Colorado State	13	Utah State	17	Utah State -14	Colorado State	45.5	Under
2021	10/22	Utah State	26	Colorado State	24	Colorado State -3	Utah State	58.5	Under
2019	09/28	Utah State	34	Colorado State	24	Utah State -24	Colorado State	69.0	Under
2018	11/17	Colorado State	24	Utah State	29	Utah State -30.5	Colorado State	66.5	Under
2017	10/07	Utah State	14	Colorado State	27	Colorado State -9.5	Colorado State	65.0	Under
2016	10/08	Colorado State	31	Utah State	24	Utah State -6	Colorado State	53.5	Over
2015	10/03	Utah State	33	Colorado State	18	Utah State -7	Utah State	50.0	Over
2014	10/18	Colorado State	16	Utah State	13	Colorado State -5.5	Utah State	0
2013	11/23	Utah State	13	Colorado State	0	Utah State -6	Utah State	0
2012	09/22	Colorado State	19	Utah State	31
2011	09/24	Utah State	34	Colorado State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	5	5	4 Overs
Utah State	8	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 5	7 - 4	2 - 3	5 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 8	4 - 7	1 - 5	3 - 2

(#105) USU at (#78) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#105	#78
SP+SP+	#106	#93
Perf GradeGrade	#116	#46
OffenseOff	#102	#40
DefenseDef	#124	#46
Spec TeamsST	#34	#83
TalentTal	#115	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#102

Utah State Notes(12/6) Hired HC Mendenhall, last at NM for 1 yr
(11/29) Rgame great vs CSU, 296/6.0. Pass D torched in L
(11/18) 5 INT's vs Hawaii, Rgame great (321, 7.6 ypc)
(11/9) Top WR Jalen Royals out for season (foot)
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#130) into week 9
(10/20) Petras 360 yds (NM), forced 4 TOs in near upset
(10/16) Monitor for quit watch. Def/Int Coach/Bad vibes
(10/11) Def is likely worst in CFB. #130+ all metrics
(10/10) Def is awful. Worst 2nd quarter D (nearly 21 ppg!)
(10/10) QB now Petras, hasn't been as awful as expected
(8/4) Portal lost #2 WR Davis (Ole Miss) this late??
(7/31) HC fired, Def awful, where does this go?
Utah State Injury Report

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#102	#46
SuccessSuc	#67	#80
ExplosiveExp	#22	#31
PPAPPA	#50	#65
PowerPwr	#19	#69
SP+SP+	#45	#85
Pts POPPO	#109	#31
HavocHav	#119	#70

Utah State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#22	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#61
Run ExplRExp	#68	#90
PPAExp	#33	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#19	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#57	#47
TackleTak	-	#70

Utah State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#68	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#19	#10
PPAExp	#48	#87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#76	#95
F7 HavocF7	#104	#24
DB HavocDB	#122	#126

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#124
SuccessSuc	#74	#114
ExplosiveExp	#99	#27
PPAPPA	#81	#98
PowerPwr	#74	#123
SP+SP+	#92	#129
Pts POPPO	#86	#119
HavocHav	#65	#24

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#124
Run ExplRExp	#133	#34
PPAExp	#130	#93
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#45
TackleTak	-	#107

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#82
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#71
PPAExp	#43	#95
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#13	#94
F7 HavocF7	#15	#39
DB HavocDB	#124	#23

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Colorado State -5.5 (56.5)
Colorado State won vs Utah State this year (42-37)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Utah State in 2024 (42-37)
Utah State beat Colorado State in 2023 (44-24)

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Spencer Petras (Tr)	214	327	65%	2315	17	11	7.1
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	77	126	61%	856	12	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahsul Faison	198	1109	8	5.6	37
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	68	530	5	7.8	63
Herschel Turner	79	405	4	5.1	43
Derrick Jameson	15	140	2	9.3	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	55	834	6	15.2	75
Kyrese Rowan	44	526	3	12.0	57
Otto Tia	44	434	7	9.9	51
Jack Hestera (Tr)	24	340	4	14.2	32

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Ike Larsen	80	2	0	0	9
Jon Ross Maye	57	4	0	3	1
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cian Slone	49	10	8	5	0
Bronson Olevao	23	4	4	3	0
Lawrence Falatea (Tr)	28	6	3	3	0
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Ike Larsen	80	2	9
Avante Dickerson	19	2	3
D.J. Graham	42	3	2

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8