Colorado State at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Colorado State Rams at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -3.5 (43.5) (-155) Open: -1.0
Fresno State 28 - Colorado State: 22 (Mountain West)

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Fresno State -2.5 (SP+ FRES -2)
Projected Score: CSU: 22 - FRES: 24 (46)
FRES Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
CSU Travel: 831 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	18.5	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	30.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	25.8	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	18.8	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Offense	12	18.5	16.6	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Defense	12	30.8	36	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -4.04 Fresno State: -2.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -5.7 Fresno State: -3.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 267.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 24
Colorado State 22

Projected Total Points: 46

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/10	Colorado State	49	Fresno State	21	Fresno State -5.5	Colorado State	47.5	Over
2024	11/23	Fresno State	28	Colorado State	22	Fresno State -3.5	Fresno State	43.5	Over
2020	10/29	Fresno State	38	Colorado State	17	Colorado State -2.5	Fresno State	58.0	Under
2019	10/26	Fresno State	31	Colorado State	41	Fresno State -13.5	Colorado State	57.0	Over
2016	11/05	Colorado State	37	Fresno State	0	Colorado State -13	Colorado State	58.5	Under
2015	11/28	Fresno State	31	Colorado State	34	Colorado State -8.5	Fresno State	60.5	Over
2012	10/06	Colorado State	7	Fresno State	28
2008	12/20	Fresno State	35	Colorado State	40
2006	09/30	Fresno State	23	Colorado State	35
2003	10/04	Colorado State	34	Fresno State	10
2002	10/04	Fresno State	32	Colorado State	30
2001	10/13	Colorado State	22	Fresno State	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	5	3	4 Overs
Colorado State	7	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 6	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2

(#78) CSU at (#87) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#78	#87
SP+SP+	#93	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#46	#87
OffenseOff	#40	#74
DefenseDef	#46	#88
Spec TeamsST	#83	#130
TalentTal	#96	#87
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#88
SuccessSuc	#74	#60
ExplosiveExp	#99	#52
PPAPPA	#81	#66
PowerPwr	#74	#33
SP+SP+	#92	#77
Pts POPPO	#86	#20
HavocHav	#65	#77

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#92	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#62
Run ExplRExp	#133	#30
PPAExp	#130	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#84
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#62
TackleTak	-	#79

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#64
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#93
PPAExp	#43	#90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#13	#105
F7 HavocF7	#15	#95
DB HavocDB	#124	#44

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	CSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#46
SuccessSuc	#48	#80
ExplosiveExp	#62	#31
PPAPPA	#51	#65
PowerPwr	#95	#69
SP+SP+	#85	#85
Pts POPPO	#36	#31
HavocHav	#45	#70

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#117	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#61
Run ExplRExp	#62	#90
PPAExp	#77	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#47
TackleTak	-	#70

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#10
PPAExp	#65	#87
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#95
F7 HavocF7	#28	#24
DB HavocDB	#93	#126

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Fresno State -3.5 (43.5)
Fresno State won vs Colorado State this year (28-22)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Fresno State last year (49-21)
Fresno State beat Colorado State in 2024 (28-22)

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4