Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -6 (43.5) (-238) Open: -8.0
Colorado State 21 - Air Force: 13 (Mountain West)
Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 26 (22 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 26 (22 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -10 (SP+ CSU -6)
Projected Score: CSU: 27 - AFA: 17 (44)
CSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
CSU Travel: 109 miles
Our Line: Colorado State -10 (SP+ CSU -6)
Projected Score: CSU: 27 - AFA: 17 (44)
CSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
CSU Travel: 109 miles
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
| Colorado State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Colorado State at Texas | +35.5 | 59.0 | L 0 - 52 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -31.0 | 52.5 | W 38 - 17 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Colorado State vs Colorado | +7.5 | 58.5 | L 9 - 28 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Colorado State vs UTEP | -8.5 | 49.0 | W 27 - 17 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Colorado State at Oregon State | +10.0 | 47.0 | L 31 - 39 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Colorado State vs San José State | -2.5 | 55.5 | W 31 - 24 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/19 | Colorado State at Air Force | -6.0 | 43.5 | W 21 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Colorado State vs New Mexico | -3.5 | 62.0 | W 17 - 6 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | Colorado State at Nevada | -2.0 | 45.5 | W 38 - 21 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Colorado State vs Wyoming | -8.5 | 47.5 | W 24 - 10 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Colorado State at Fresno State | +3.5 | 43.5 | L 22 - 28 | O | N | |
| Fri 11/29 | Colorado State vs Utah State | -5.5 | 56.5 | W 42 - 37 | O | N | |
| Sat 12/28 | Colorado State vs Miami (OH) | +1.0 | 42.5 | L 17 - 43 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
| Air Force's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Air Force vs Merrimack | -30.5 | 47.5 | W 21 - 6 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Air Force vs San José State | -1.5 | 43.5 | L 7 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Air Force at Baylor | +17.5 | 40.5 | L 3 - 31 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Air Force at Wyoming | -4.0 | 33.5 | L 19 - 31 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | Air Force vs Navy | +10.0 | 37.0 | L 7 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | Air Force at New Mexico | +7.0 | 56.0 | L 37 - 52 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Air Force vs Colorado State | +6.0 | 43.5 | L 13 - 21 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Air Force at Army | +18.0 | 38.5 | L 3 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/9 | Air Force vs Fresno State | +9.5 | 40.5 | W 36 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/16 | Air Force vs Oregon State | +3.0 | 44.5 | W 28 - 0 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Air Force at Nevada | +3.0 | 44.5 | W 22 - 19 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Air Force at San Diego State | -6.5 | 43.5 | W 31 - 20 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | #90 (.16) | 42% (76) | 24.4 | 43% (80) | 2.88 (96) | 162 | 41% (81) | 192 | 3.56 (98) | #61 (.16) | 42% (78) | 25.8 | 42% (59) | 43% (94) | 4 (88) | 47.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 18.9 | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 23.3 | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | #90 (.16) | 42% (76) | 43% (80) | 2.88 (96) | 162 | 41% (81) | 192 | 3.56 (98) | #61 (.16) | 42% (78) | 42% (59) | 43% (94) | 4 (88) | 47.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | ||
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU Offense | 13 | 24.4 | 22.4 | 42.2% | 3.56 | 1.2 | 16 | 354 | 162 | 192 | 4.9 | 55% | 45% | 43% | 41% | 15% | .16 |
| AFA Defense | 12 | 23.3 | 17.7 | 41.7% | 3.97 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 56% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 15% | .2 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU Defense | 13 | 25.8 | 30.6 | 42.4% | 4 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 49% | 51% | 42% | 43% | 17% | .16 |
| AFA Offense | 12 | 18.9 | 18.7 | 42.1% | 4.02 | 1.3 | 18 | 314 | 225 | 90 | 4 | 82% | 18% | 45% | 31% | 12% | .13 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 13 | 28:44 | 16.5 | 35% | 64% | 5.8 | 47.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2 | 27.8 |
| Air Force | 12 | 33:58 | 17.9 | 42% | 64% | 3 | 28 | 1.3 | 1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 28.6 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU Offense | 13 | 55% (30) | 43% (80) | 33.4 | 161.8 | 4.9 | 19 (73) | .03 (115) | 2.88 (96) | 55% (133) | 9% (46) | 0.92 (87) |
| AFA Defense | 12 | 56% (120) | 41% (47) | - | - | - | - | .1 (56) | 3.02 (73) | 66% (28) | 10% (63) | 1.07 (101) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU Defense | 13 | 49% (51) | 42% (59) | - | - | - | - | .1 (55) | 3.01 (70) | 69% (45) | 9% (91) | 1.02 (88) |
| AFA Offense | 12 | 82% (2) | 45% (60) | 55.7 | 224.7 | 4 | 24 (45) | .15 (60) | 3.03 (68) | 83% (11) | 9% (55) | 0.88 (112) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU Offense | 13 | 45% (102) | 41% (81) | 16.2 | 26.4 | 191.8 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 15 (98) | 8 (40) | .31 (43) | 1.7 (25) | 32% (75) | 34% (37) | .42 (33) | 7% (98) | 2 (92) |
| AFA Defense | 12 | 44% (16) | 43% (89) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (125) | .33 (107) | 1.6 (63) | 31% (79) | 30% (54) | .3 (63) | 5% (120) | 2 (60) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU Defense | 13 | 51% (85) | 43% (94) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10 (66) | .22 (59) | 1.4 (16) | 30% (105) | 30% (64) | .27 (49) | 8% (22) | 1.9 (35) |
| AFA Offense | 12 | 18% (133) | 31% (131) | 5.2 | 11.5 | 89.8 | 7.8 | 17.4 | 5 (134) | 10 (63) | .09 (124) | 2.1 (1) | 27% (14) | 25% (124) | .18 (111) | 3% (2) | 2.1 (66) |
Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -4.04 Air Force: -14.77
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -5.7 Air Force: -11.7
Colorado State: -4.04 Air Force: -14.77
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -5.7 Air Force: -11.7
Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.6
Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.6
Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Colorado State 27
Air Force 17
Total Points: 44
Colorado State 27
Air Force 17
Total Points: 44
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7
Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7
Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/19 | Air Force | 13 | Colorado State | 21 | Colorado State | Colorado State -6 | Colorado State | 43.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 10/28 | Colorado State | 13 | Air Force | 30 | Air Force | Air Force -14.5 | Air Force | 47.0 | Under |
| 2022 | 11/19 | Air Force | 24 | Colorado State | 12 | Air Force | Air Force -22 | Colorado State | 43.0 | Under |
| 2021 | 11/13 | Colorado State | 21 | Air Force | 35 | Air Force | Air Force -3 | Air Force | 45.0 | Over |
| 2019 | 11/16 | Colorado State | 21 | Air Force | 38 | Air Force | Air Force -11 | Air Force | 63.5 | Under |
| 2018 | 11/22 | Air Force | 27 | Colorado State | 19 | Air Force | Air Force -14.5 | Colorado State | 64.0 | Under |
| 2017 | 10/28 | Colorado State | 28 | Air Force | 45 | Air Force | Colorado State -9.5 | Air Force | 68.5 | Over |
| 2016 | 11/12 | Air Force | 49 | Colorado State | 46 | Air Force | Air Force -6 | Colorado State | 54.0 | Over |
| 2015 | 10/17 | Colorado State | 38 | Air Force | 23 | Colorado State | Air Force -3.5 | Colorado State | 54.5 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/28 | Air Force | 27 | Colorado State | 24 | Air Force | Colorado State -5 | Air Force | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/30 | Colorado State | 58 | Air Force | 13 | Colorado State | Colorado State -14 | Colorado State | 0 | |
| 2012 | 09/29 | Air Force | 42 | Colorado State | 21 | Air Force | ||||
| 2011 | 11/26 | Colorado State | 21 | Air Force | 45 | Air Force | ||||
| 2010 | 10/09 | Air Force | 49 | Colorado State | 27 | Air Force | ||||
| 2009 | 10/31 | Colorado State | 16 | Air Force | 34 | Air Force | ||||
| 2008 | 11/08 | Air Force | 38 | Colorado State | 17 | Air Force | ||||
| 2007 | 10/13 | Colorado State | 21 | Air Force | 45 | Air Force | ||||
| 2006 | 10/12 | Air Force | 24 | Colorado State | 21 | Air Force | ||||
| 2005 | 09/29 | Colorado State | 41 | Air Force | 23 | Colorado State | ||||
| 2004 | 11/20 | Air Force | 47 | Colorado State | 17 | Air Force | ||||
| 2003 | 10/16 | Colorado State | 30 | Air Force | 20 | Colorado State | ||||
| 2002 | 10/31 | Air Force | 12 | Colorado State | 31 | Colorado State | ||||
| 2001 | 11/08 | Colorado State | 28 | Air Force | 21 | Colorado State | ||||
| 2000 | 11/10 | Air Force | 44 | Colorado State | 40 | Air Force |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 17 | 5 | 4 Overs |
| Colorado State | 7 | 6 | 5 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 15 - 9 | 3 - 8 | 1 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Road Teams | 9 - 15 | 8 - 3 | 4 - 2 | 4 - 1 |
(#78) Colorado State Info
Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.56 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Colorado State has won 1 straight
Colorado State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 3 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )
Colorado State Notes
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
Colorado State Highlights
Colorado State Secondary is very good (#53)
Colorado State Deficiencies
Colorado State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)
Colorado State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Colorado State does not Sack the QB (#112)
Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.56 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Colorado State has won 1 straight
Colorado State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 3 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )
Colorado State Notes
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
Colorado State Highlights
Colorado State Secondary is very good (#53)
Colorado State Deficiencies
Colorado State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)
Colorado State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Colorado State does not Sack the QB (#112)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | AFA | CSU |
| OverallOver | #69 | #34 |
| OffenseOff | #59 | #36 |
| DefenseDef | #93 | #34 |
| Special TeamsST | #106 | #69 |
| PassingPass | #99 | #49 |
| RushingRush | #78 | #66 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #15 | #14 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #116 | #13 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #93 | #59 |
| TacklingTkl | #54 | #61 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #86 | #28 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #82 | #81 |
| Coverage DefCov | #93 | #42 |
Rematch from Week 8
Colorado State 6.0 (43.5)
Colorado State won at Air Force this year (21-13)
Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Air Force last year (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2022 (24-12)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: CSU | AFA
Depth Chart: CSU | AFA
Rosters: CSU | AFA
(#125) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Air Force has lost 5 straight
Air Force has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)
Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force has a really bad Offense at Home
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)
Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Air Force has lost 5 straight
Air Force has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)
Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force has a really bad Offense at Home
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi | 227 | 374 | 61% | 2755 | 14 | 8 | 7.4 |
| Jackson Brousseau | 3 | 6 | 50% | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Morrow | 184 | 1006 | 9 | 5.5 | 73 |
| Justin Marshall | 156 | 767 | 4 | 4.9 | 42 |
| Jalen Dupree | 25 | 153 | 1 | 6.1 | 24 |
| Keegan Holles | 15 | 97 | 1 | 6.5 | 18 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Goodie | 21 | 436 | 4 | 20.8 | 85 |
| Jamari Person | 35 | 373 | 1 | 10.7 | 60 |
| Armani Winfield (Tr) | 38 | 341 | 2 | 9.0 | 62 |
| Tory Horton | 25 | 331 | 1 | 13.2 | 52 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buom Jock | 97 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Chase Wilson | 97 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| Jack Howell | 86 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Henry Blackburn | 79 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Kirschke (Tr) | 41 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Mukendi Wa-Kalonji | 35 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| James Mitchell | 38 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Ayden Hector | 40 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Larry (Tr) | 38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| Dom Jones | 60 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Dominic Morris | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Busha | 29 | 79 | 37% | 415 | 1 | 5 | 5.3 |
| Quentin Hayes | 25 | 43 | 58% | 455 | 3 | 2 | 10.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carson | 138 | 600 | 5 | 4.3 | 50 |
| Quentin Hayes | 126 | 466 | 7 | 3.7 | 30 |
| Owen Allen | 77 | 335 | 2 | 4.4 | 14 |
| Cade Harris | 48 | 279 | 4 | 5.8 | 30 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Harris | 23 | 368 | 2 | 16.0 | 76 |
| Quin Smith | 10 | 207 | 1 | 20.7 | 39 |
| Jared Roznos | 5 | 109 | 0 | 21.8 | 52 |
| Bruin Fleischmann | 5 | 104 | 0 | 20.8 | 43 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camby Goff | 67 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jamari Bellamy | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Osaro Aihie | 58 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Santiago | 37 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Peyton Zdroik | 18 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Osaro Aihie | 58 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamari Bellamy | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Trey Williams | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Camby Goff | 67 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |