Colorado State at Air Force - 2024 Matchup Preview

Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -6 (43.5) (-238) Open: -8.0
Colorado State 21 - Air Force: 13 (Mountain West)

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -10 (SP+ CSU -6)
Projected Score: CSU: 29 - AFA: 19 (49)
CSU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
CSU Travel: 109 miles

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CSU Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	18.5	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	30.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	29.8	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	30.3	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Offense	12	18.5	16.6	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17
AFA Defense	13	30.3	27.8	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CSU Defense	12	30.8	36	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18
AFA Offense	13	29.8	27.5	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.04 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -4.04 Air Force: -14.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -5.7 Air Force: -11.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 85.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 29
Air Force 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Colorado State	21	Air Force	42	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	47.5	Over
2024	10/19	Air Force	13	Colorado State	21	Colorado State -6	Colorado State	43.5	Under
2023	10/28	Colorado State	13	Air Force	30	Air Force -14.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2022	11/19	Air Force	24	Colorado State	12	Air Force -22	Colorado State	43.0	Under
2021	11/13	Colorado State	21	Air Force	35	Air Force -3	Air Force	45.0	Over
2019	11/16	Colorado State	21	Air Force	38	Air Force -11	Air Force	63.5	Under
2018	11/22	Air Force	27	Colorado State	19	Air Force -14.5	Colorado State	64.0	Under
2017	10/28	Colorado State	28	Air Force	45	Colorado State -9.5	Air Force	68.5	Over
2016	11/12	Air Force	49	Colorado State	46	Air Force -6	Colorado State	54.0	Over
2015	10/17	Colorado State	38	Air Force	23	Air Force -3.5	Colorado State	54.5	Over
2014	11/28	Air Force	27	Colorado State	24	Colorado State -5	Air Force	0
2013	11/30	Colorado State	58	Air Force	13	Colorado State -14	Colorado State	0
2012	09/29	Air Force	42	Colorado State	21
2011	11/26	Colorado State	21	Air Force	45
2010	10/09	Air Force	49	Colorado State	27
2009	10/31	Colorado State	16	Air Force	34
2008	11/08	Air Force	38	Colorado State	17
2007	10/13	Colorado State	21	Air Force	45
2006	10/12	Air Force	24	Colorado State	21
2005	09/29	Colorado State	41	Air Force	23
2004	11/20	Air Force	47	Colorado State	17
2003	10/16	Colorado State	30	Air Force	20
2002	10/31	Air Force	12	Colorado State	31
2001	11/08	Colorado State	28	Air Force	21
2000	11/10	Air Force	44	Colorado State	40

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	18	6	5 Overs
Colorado State	7	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	1 - 4	2 - 5
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	5 - 2	4 - 1

(#78) CSU at (#125) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CSU	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#78	#125
SP+SP+	#93	#111
Perf GradeGrade	#46	#97
OffenseOff	#40	#72
DefenseDef	#46	#113
Spec TeamsST	#83	#129
TalentTal	#96	#132
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

Air Force Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#113
SuccessSuc	#74	#38
ExplosiveExp	#99	#42
PPAPPA	#81	#28
PowerPwr	#74	#117
SP+SP+	#92	#76
Pts POPPO	#86	#85
HavocHav	#65	#113

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#92	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#16
Run ExplRExp	#133	#61
PPAExp	#130	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#44
TackleTak	-	#61

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#19
PPAExp	#43	#36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#13	#96
F7 HavocF7	#15	#93
DB HavocDB	#124	#103

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	CSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#46
SuccessSuc	#31	#80
ExplosiveExp	#115	#31
PPAPPA	#26	#65
PowerPwr	#112	#69
SP+SP+	#120	#85
Pts POPPO	#52	#31
HavocHav	#3	#70

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#109	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#61
Run ExplRExp	#56	#90
PPAExp	#14	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#47
TackleTak	-	#70

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#10
PPAExp	#9	#87
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#95
F7 HavocF7	#22	#24
DB HavocDB	#1	#126

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Colorado State 6.0 (43.5)
Colorado State won at Air Force this year (21-13)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Colorado State last year (42-21)
Colorado State beat Air Force in 2024 (21-13)
Air Force beat Colorado State in 2023 (30-13)

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Jared Roznos	5	109	0	21.8	52
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	4
Trey Williams	31	1	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	1	3