New Mexico at Colorado State Game Matchup

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (5:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -3.5 (62.0) (-230) Open: -6.0 | 65.0
Colorado State 17 - New Mexico: 6 (Mountain West)

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)

UNM 2nd straight Road Game
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -14 (SP+ CSU -9)
Projected Score: UNM: 24 - CSU: 38 (61)
CSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNM Travel: 389 miles

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	33.5	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	38	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	24.4	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	25.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	33.5	30.7	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31
CSU Defense	12	25.8	19.9	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	38	37.4	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32
CSU Offense	12	24.4	26.9	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 262.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10 Colorado State: -2.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8 Colorado State: -5.7

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -2.37 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 502.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 38
New Mexico 24

Projected Total Points: 61

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.9

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	6	Colorado State	Colorado State -3.5	Colorado State	62.0	Under
2022	11/25	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	0	Colorado State	Colorado State -7.5	Colorado State	36.0	Under
2021	10/16	New Mexico	7	Colorado State	36	Colorado State	Colorado State -13	Colorado State	44.5	Under
2019	10/11	New Mexico	21	Colorado State	35	Colorado State	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	66.5	Under
2018	10/13	Colorado State	20	New Mexico	18	Colorado State	New Mexico -1.5	Colorado State	63.0	Under
2017	10/20	New Mexico	24	Colorado State	27	Colorado State	Colorado State -10	New Mexico	61.0	Under
2016	11/19	Colorado State	49	New Mexico	31	Colorado State	Colorado State -5	Colorado State	61.5	Over
2015	11/21	New Mexico	21	Colorado State	28	Colorado State	Colorado State -2	Colorado State	56.5	Under
2014	11/22	Colorado State	58	New Mexico	20	Colorado State	Colorado State -21	Colorado State	0
2013	11/16	New Mexico	42	Colorado State	66	Colorado State	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	0
2012	11/24	Colorado State	24	New Mexico	20	Colorado State
2011	09/03	New Mexico	10	Colorado State	14	Colorado State
2010	10/30	Colorado State	38	New Mexico	14	Colorado State
2009	11/21	New Mexico	29	Colorado State	27	New Mexico
2008	11/15	Colorado State	20	New Mexico	6	Colorado State
2007	11/10	New Mexico	26	Colorado State	23	New Mexico
2006	10/28	Colorado State	19	New Mexico	20	New Mexico
2005	10/28	New Mexico	25	Colorado State	35	Colorado State
2004	10/30	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	26	New Mexico
2003	11/07	New Mexico	37	Colorado State	34	New Mexico
2001	11/17	New Mexico	17	Colorado State	24	Colorado State
2000	10/06	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	14	Colorado State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	17	9	1 Overs
New Mexico	5	1	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 10	6 - 4	4 - 0	2 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 12	4 - 6	4 - 2	0 - 4

(#118) New Mexico Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.10 #118
Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132
Talent Rating: 262.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 49%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

New Mexico Notes
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg

New Mexico Ratings Matchup Colorado State

Power #118

#78

Off #30

#74

Def #128

#69

Talent #128

#98

SP+ #116

#93

SP+ Off #64

#92

SP+ Def #132

#85

Rematch from Week 9
Colorado State -3.5 (62.0)
Colorado State won vs New Mexico this year (17-6)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat New Mexico last year (17-6)
Colorado State beat New Mexico in 2022 (17-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | CSU
Depth Chart: UNM | CSU
Rosters: UNM | CSU

(#78) Colorado State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.37 #78
Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85
Talent Rating: 502.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.56 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Colorado State Notes
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on

New Mexico's OC Jason Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43
Trace Bruckler	22	138	2	6.3	12

View New Mexico's Full Roster

New Mexico's DC Nick Howell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	0	0	10
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4

Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18
Caleb Goodie	5	87	0	17.4	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Vince Brown II	24	256	3	10.7	30

View Colorado State's Full Roster

Colorado State's DC Freddie Banks

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Owen Long	44	1	0	0	2
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
Kennedy McDowell	8	2	2	2	0
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	0	1	9
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6
Isaiah Essissima (Tr)	14	1	0	0	4