New Mexico at Colorado State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (5:00 PM EDT)
Colorado State -3.5 (62.0) (-230) Open: -6.0 | 65.0
Colorado State 17 - New Mexico: 6 (Mountain West)

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNM 2nd straight Road Game
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -14 (SP+ CSU -9)
Projected Score: UNM: 21 - CSU: 35 (56)
CSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNM Travel: 389 miles

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	27.1	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	22.3	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	18.5	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	30.8	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.1	27.5	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31
CSU Defense	12	30.8	27.1	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	22.3	26.3	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32
CSU Offense	12	18.5	19.9	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 120.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10 Colorado State: -2.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8 Colorado State: -5.7

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -2.37 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 35
New Mexico 21

Projected Total Points: 56

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	New Mexico	20	Colorado State	17	New Mexico -15.5	Colorado State	53.5	Under
2024	10/26	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	6	Colorado State -3.5	Colorado State	62.0	Under
2022	11/25	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	0	Colorado State -7.5	Colorado State	36.0	Under
2021	10/16	New Mexico	7	Colorado State	36	Colorado State -13	Colorado State	44.5	Under
2019	10/11	New Mexico	21	Colorado State	35	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	66.5	Under
2018	10/13	Colorado State	20	New Mexico	18	New Mexico -1.5	Colorado State	63.0	Under
2017	10/20	New Mexico	24	Colorado State	27	Colorado State -10	New Mexico	61.0	Under
2016	11/19	Colorado State	49	New Mexico	31	Colorado State -5	Colorado State	61.5	Over
2015	11/21	New Mexico	21	Colorado State	28	Colorado State -2	Colorado State	56.5	Under
2014	11/22	Colorado State	58	New Mexico	20	Colorado State -21	Colorado State	0
2013	11/16	New Mexico	42	Colorado State	66	Colorado State -4	Colorado State	0
2012	11/24	Colorado State	24	New Mexico	20
2011	09/03	New Mexico	10	Colorado State	14
2010	10/30	Colorado State	38	New Mexico	14
2009	11/21	New Mexico	29	Colorado State	27
2008	11/15	Colorado State	20	New Mexico	6
2007	11/10	New Mexico	26	Colorado State	23
2006	10/28	Colorado State	19	New Mexico	20
2005	10/28	New Mexico	25	Colorado State	35
2004	10/30	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	26
2003	11/07	New Mexico	37	Colorado State	34
2001	11/17	New Mexico	17	Colorado State	24
2000	10/06	Colorado State	17	New Mexico	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	17	10	1 Overs
New Mexico	6	1	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 10	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 13	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4

(#118) UNM at (#78) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#118	#78
SP+SP+	#116	#93
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#46
OffenseOff	#17	#40
DefenseDef	#134	#46
Spec TeamsST	#135	#83
TalentTal	#130	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

New Mexico Notes(12/14) HC Mendenhall left for Utah State
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg
(9/10) Defense is worst in CFB. Maybe historically bad.
New Mexico Injury Report

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#46
SuccessSuc	#12	#80
ExplosiveExp	#65	#31
PPAPPA	#15	#65
PowerPwr	#30	#69
SP+SP+	#64	#85
Pts POPPO	#49	#31
HavocHav	#126	#70

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#5	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#61
Run ExplRExp	#54	#90
PPAExp	#16	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#47
TackleTak	-	#70

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#23	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#10
PPAExp	#23	#87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#95
F7 HavocF7	#110	#24
DB HavocDB	#129	#126

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#134
SuccessSuc	#74	#130
ExplosiveExp	#99	#64
PPAPPA	#81	#127
PowerPwr	#74	#128
SP+SP+	#92	#132
Pts POPPO	#86	#109
HavocHav	#65	#54

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#92	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#126
Run ExplRExp	#133	#20
PPAExp	#130	#106
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#66
TackleTak	-	#115

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#118
PPAExp	#43	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#13	#135
F7 HavocF7	#15	#80
DB HavocDB	#124	#28

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Colorado State -3.5 (62.0)
Colorado State won vs New Mexico this year (17-6)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Colorado State last year (20-17)
Colorado State beat New Mexico in 2024 (17-6)

UNM's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Ryan Davis	54	747	3	13.8	55
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	10
Noa Pola-Gates	50	0	7
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	5

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8