Miami (OH) at Notre Dame - 2024 Matchup Preview

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -27.5 (44.0) (-4500) Open: 0.0
Notre Dame 28 - Miami (OH): 3

RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 92.1° (27% Hum)
ND is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -28 (SP+ ND -23)
Projected Score: M-OH: 10 - ND: 38 (49)
ND Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
M-OH Travel: 170 miles

Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
M-OH Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami (OH) vs Northwestern	+4.0	43.0	L 6 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati	+3.5	47.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Miami (OH) at Notre Dame	+27.5	44.0	L 3 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts	-15.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Miami (OH) at Toledo	+4.5	44.0	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/12	Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-3.5	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan	-10.5	48.5	W 46 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-12.5	48.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Wed 11/13	Miami (OH) vs Kent State	-31.0	47.5	W 34 - 7	U	N
Tue 11/19	Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois	-1.5	43.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Miami (OH) at Bowling Green	+3.0	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-2.5	43.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 12/28	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Notre Dame at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois	-28.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/14	Notre Dame at Purdue	-11.5	45.5	W 66 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)	-27.5	44.0	W 28 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/28	Notre Dame vs Louisville	-6.5	45.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Notre Dame vs Stanford	-22.5	45.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech	-14.0	49.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-14.0	50.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Notre Dame vs Florida State	-25.5	44.5	W 52 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Notre Dame vs Virginia	-20.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Notre Dame vs Army	-14.5	44.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Notre Dame at USC	-6.5	52.5	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Notre Dame vs Indiana	-7.0	50.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Notre Dame vs Georgia	-1.5	46.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Notre Dame vs Penn State	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Mon 1/20	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+8.5	45.5	L 23 - 34	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	23.5	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	21.7	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2
ND	#8 (.35)	49% (9)	42	51% (9)	3.37 (15)	186	48% (19)	247	4.87 (7)	#6 (.04)	35% (7)	17.6	37% (21)	33% (3)	2.97 (11)	48.2	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	23.5	19.8	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18
ND Defense	13	17.6	18	34.6%	2.97	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	33%	18%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	21.7	21.2	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1
ND Offense	13	42	44.7	49.3%	4.87	1.3	21	433	186	247	5.3	52%	47%	51%	48%	11%	.35

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4
Notre Dame	13	30:48	20.9	45%	59%	5.4	48.2	1.3	1.8	4.8	1.9	4	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)
ND Defense	13	50% (61)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	.07 (29)	2.85 (26)	67% (34)	11% (50)	1.05 (92)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)
ND Offense	13	52% (45)	51% (9)	35.2	186.3	5.3	28 (25)	.23 (27)	3.37 (15)	72% (83)	7% (10)	0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)
ND Defense	13	49% (67)	33% (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.04 (2)	1.5 (40)	36% (14)	25% (14)	.23 (26)	7% (27)	1.9 (20)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)
ND Offense	13	47% (85)	48% (19)	17.5	27	246.5	9.1	14.1	31 (14)	9 (40)	.51 (8)	1.8 (16)	28% (10)	37% (19)	.53 (14)	4% (11)	2.1 (60)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -3.43 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.43 Notre Dame: 26.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 1.3 Notre Dame: 23.9

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 38
Miami (OH) 10

Projected Total Points: 49

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Notre Dame	28	Miami (OH)	3	Notre Dame -27.5	Miami (OH)	44.0	Under
2017	09/30	Notre Dame	52	Miami (OH)	17	Notre Dame -21	Notre Dame	53.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	2	1	1 Overs
Miami (OH)	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#75) M-OH at (#5) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	M-OH	ND
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#75	#5
SP+SP+	#68	#8
Perf GradeGrade	#48	#10
OffenseOff	#74	#11
DefenseDef	#33	#10
Spec TeamsST	#41	#5
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#8

Miami (OH) Notes(11/25) Huge W @ N Ill. Game vs BG for MAC title game
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate
(7/30) Lost top weapons to portal, WR (SC), RB (Ole Miss)
Miami (OH) Injury Report

Notre Dame Injury Report

Miami (OH) on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#10
SuccessSuc	#122	#7
ExplosiveExp	#17	#57
PPAPPA	#78	#6
PowerPwr	#115	#2
SP+SP+	#98	#7
Pts POPPO	#57	#11
HavocHav	#95	#32

Miami (OH) Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#92	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#21
Run ExplRExp	#25	#92
PPAExp	#94	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#26
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#18
TackleTak	-	#9

Miami (OH) Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#3
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#40
PPAExp	#59	#2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#115	#15
F7 HavocF7	#82	#50
DB HavocDB	#107	#27

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	M-OH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#11	#33
SuccessSuc	#9	#48
ExplosiveExp	#44	#3
PPAPPA	#8	#20
PowerPwr	#24	#21
SP+SP+	#4	#43
Pts POPPO	#7	#14
HavocHav	#7	#40

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#4	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#47
Run ExplRExp	#86	#19
PPAExp	#27	#23
Run BlockR Blk	#13	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#104
TackleTak	-	#60

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#37	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#19	#61
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#1
PPAExp	#8	#27
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#53
F7 HavocF7	#10	#69
DB HavocDB	#11	#20

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 92°

Rematch from Week 4
Notre Dame -27.5 (44.0)
Notre Dame won vs Miami (OH) this year (28-3)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Miami (OH) in 2024 (28-3)

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	217	379	57%	2921	21	11	7.7
Henry Hesson	7	17	41%	93	1	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keyon Mozee	178	1098	4	6.2	74
Kevin Davis	50	331	4	6.6	97
Jordan Brunson	53	299	4	5.6	75
Dylan Downing (Tr)	44	152	1	3.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	57	818	7	14.4	72
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Cade McDonald	52	631	3	12.1	51
Kevin Davis	29	234	2	8.1	35

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	122	8	1	2	3
Silas Walters	95	3	0	0	12
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Eli Blakey	89	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Ugwu	59	15	8	16	3
Corey Suttle	36	8	6	10	0
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Adam Trick	37	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Raion Strader	53	0	17
Silas Walters	95	3	12
William Hardrick	26	0	4

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)	269	403	67%	2861	21	8	7.1
Steven Angeli	24	36	67%	268	3	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	163	1124	17	6.9	98
Riley Leonard (Tr)	184	906	17	4.9	50
Jadarian Price	120	746	7	6.2	70
Aneyas Williams	34	219	2	6.4	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Greathouse	42	592	4	14.1	54
Beaux Collins (Tr)	41	490	3	12.0	53
Mitchell Evans	43	421	3	9.8	33
Jordan Faison	30	356	1	11.9	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Kiser	90	5	2	3	1
Xavier Watts	83	4	0	4	9
Drayk Bowen	78	4	1	2	2
Adon Shuler	59	3	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rylie Mills	37	9	8	4	0
Howard Cross III	27	5	4	3	1
Donovan Hinish	34	4	4	4	1
Junior Tuihalamaka	32	6	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Leonard Moore	48	2	1	11
Xavier Watts	83	4	4	9
Christian Gray	35	3	0	9