Toledo at Northern Illinois - 2024 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Northern Illinois -3 (42.5) (-155) Open: -1.0
Toledo 13 - Northern Illinois: 6 (Mid-American)

Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Road Game
NIU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Northern Illinois -5.5 (SP+ TOL -1)
Projected Score: TOL: 19 - NIU: 25 (44)
NIU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TOL Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Toledo vs Duquesne	-27.5	53.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-17.5	50.5	W 38 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/14	Toledo at Mississippi State	+10.5	56.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Toledo at Western Kentucky	-2.0	60.5	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-4.5	44.0	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Toledo at Buffalo	-10.5	44.5	L 15 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/19	Toledo at Northern Illinois	+3.0	42.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-1.5	47.5	L 26 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/2	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	54.5	W 29 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-15.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Toledo vs Ohio	-1.5	47.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/26	Toledo at Akron	-9.5	50.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/26	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)	28.3	38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)	23.2	42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)	24.5	44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)	18.5	41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	28.3	22.2	40.8%	3.55	1.3	18	339	111	227	3.5	46%	53%	38%	44%	16%	.11
NIU Defense	13	18.5	17.2	37.7%	3.08	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	35%	17%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	23.2	21.3	39.8%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	42%	38%	19%	.09
NIU Offense	13	24.5	27.8	42.1%	3.39	1.2	21	383	204	179	4.8	59%	41%	44%	40%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	25:06	18.4	36%	50%	5.4	46.7	1.3	1.3	6.2	2.1	2	31.4
Northern Illinois	13	33:20	21.5	42%	45%	4.2	42.8	1.2	1.1	5.4	2.5	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	46% (96)	38% (120)	31.5	111.3	3.5	12 (114)	-.04 (127)	2.66 (121)	57% (130)	10% (74)	0.83 (125)
NIU Defense	13	49% (44)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.08 (45)	3.06 (79)	74% (73)	11% (53)	0.9 (33)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52% (83)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	.11 (66)	3.01 (69)	77% (89)	12% (31)	0.95 (48)
NIU Offense	13	59% (11)	44% (72)	42.8	204.2	4.8	22 (55)	.14 (66)	3.25 (33)	72% (83)	9% (60)	1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	53% (41)	44% (46)	19.2	31	227.2	7.3	11.8	26 (26)	7 (26)	.26 (67)	1.6 (61)	31% (65)	27% (108)	.18 (115)	6% (76)	2 (68)
NIU Defense	13	51% (93)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.04 (4)	1.5 (55)	36% (15)	25% (10)	.18 (16)	7% (37)	2 (67)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.08 (11)	1.5 (29)	34% (38)	29% (39)	.22 (34)	7% (35)	2 (43)
NIU Offense	13	41% (124)	40% (86)	16.5	28.5	179.1	6.3	10.8	16 (87)	8 (40)	.23 (84)	1.6 (58)	31% (68)	30% (89)	.17 (117)	5% (39)	1.9 (116)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50 Northern Illinois: -0.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Northern Illinois: -3.5

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -0.635 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 25
Toledo 19

Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 24
Toledo 23

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Northern Illinois 24
Toledo 21

Total Points: 45

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/05	Toledo	42	Northern Illinois	3	Toledo -14.5	Toledo	42.5	Over
2024	10/19	Northern Illinois	6	Toledo	13	Northern Illinois -3	Toledo	42.5	Under
2023	09/30	Toledo	35	Northern Illinois	33	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	48.0	Over
2022	10/08	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo	52	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	59.0	Over
2021	10/09	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	22	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	51.5	Under
2020	12/05	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	41	Toledo -9	Toledo	53.5	Over
2019	11/13	Toledo	28	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2018	11/07	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	15	Northern Illinois -3.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2017	11/02	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo -7.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2016	11/09	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	31	Toledo -7.5	Northern Illinois	69.5	Under
2015	11/03	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo -7	Northern Illinois	62.0	Under
2014	11/11	Northern Illinois	27	Toledo	24	Northern Illinois -3.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/20	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	0
2012	11/14	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo	24
2011	11/01	Toledo	60	Northern Illinois	63
2010	11/09	Northern Illinois	65	Toledo	30
2009	10/17	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	19
2008	10/18	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	7
2007	10/27	Toledo	70	Northern Illinois	21
2006	11/07	Northern Illinois	13	Toledo	17
2005	11/16	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35
2004	11/09	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo	31
2003	11/15	Toledo	49	Northern Illinois	30
2001	09/29	Toledo	41	Northern Illinois	20
2000	11/03	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	11	7	5 Overs
Toledo	14	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	4 - 9	3 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	9 - 4	3 - 1	6 - 3

(#99) TOL at (#73) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#73
SP+SP+	#80	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#50	#51
OffenseOff	#105	#80
DefenseDef	#14	#24
Spec TeamsST	#17	#38
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Toledo Notes(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report

Northern Illinois Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#24
SuccessSuc	#95	#19
ExplosiveExp	#83	#37
PPAPPA	#111	#11
PowerPwr	#121	#11
SP+SP+	#88	#32
Pts POPPO	#99	#12
HavocHav	#72	#48

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#128	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#52
Run ExplRExp	#125	#33
PPAExp	#127	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#104
TackleTak	-	#3

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#32
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#55
PPAExp	#67	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#73
F7 HavocF7	#74	#53
DB HavocDB	#76	#37

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#14
SuccessSuc	#79	#43
ExplosiveExp	#96	#33
PPAPPA	#86	#20
PowerPwr	#97	#50
SP+SP+	#115	#64
Pts POPPO	#113	#79
HavocHav	#44	#28

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#90	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#60
Run ExplRExp	#54	#48
PPAExp	#66	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#81
TackleTak	-	#3

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#29
PPAExp	#84	#11
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#21
F7 HavocF7	#60	#31
DB HavocDB	#39	#35

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Northern Illinois -3.0 (42.5)
Toledo won at Northern Illinois this year (13-6)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (52-32)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Sevaughn Clark	62	209	0	3.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4