Virginia at Pittsburgh - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#14)Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers(#24)

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Pittsburgh -7.5 (56.5) (-275) Open: -7.0 | 57.5
Virginia 24 - Pittsburgh: 19 (ACC)

Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA coming off BYE
Our Line: Pittsburgh -9.5 (SP+ PITT -10)
Projected Score: UVA: 24 - PITT: 33 (57)
PITT Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 185 miles

Panthers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (65 - 50)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
PITT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Virginia vs Richmond	-21
Sat 9/7	Virginia at Wake Forest	-1.5	55.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Virginia vs Maryland	-2.5	55.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Virginia at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	52.0	W 43 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Virginia vs Boston College	-2.0	52.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Virginia vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Virginia at Clemson	+20.0	57.5	L 31 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Virginia vs North Carolina	-3.5	58.5	L 14 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+7.5	56.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Virginia at Notre Dame	+20.5	51.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/23	Virginia vs SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/30	Virginia at Virginia Tech	+4.5	44.5	L 17 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Pittsburgh vs Kent State	-23.5	55.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	-2.5	62.5	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	Pittsburgh vs West Virginia	+2.5	60.5	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State	-29.5	59.5	W 73 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Pittsburgh at North Carolina	-2.5	63.0	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Pittsburgh vs California	-3.5	57.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/24	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-5.0	62.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Pittsburgh at SMU	+7.0	55.5	L 25 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/9	Pittsburgh vs Virginia	-7.5	56.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Clemson	+12.0	52.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Pittsburgh at Louisville	+7.0	57.0	L 9 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/30	Pittsburgh at Boston College	+3.5	50.5	L 23 - 34	O	N
Thu 12/26	Pittsburgh vs Toledo	-6.5	48.5	L 46 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)	22.7	43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)	28.8	44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3
PITT	#91 (.15)	42% (85)	32.9	45% (56)	3.1 (53)	119	39% (97)	256	4.11 (49)	#35 (.12)	38% (25)	28.4	38% (20)	38% (38)	3.68 (57)	58.2	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	#102 (.13)	40% (103)		43% (77)	3.29 (25)	133	37% (113)	229	3.47 (106)	#116 (.27)	43% (80)		44% (77)	42% (77)	4.04 (94)	45.3	1.6	1.3
PITT	#91 (.15)	42% (85)		45% (56)	3.1 (53)	119	39% (97)	256	4.11 (49)	#35 (.12)	38% (25)		38% (20)	38% (38)	3.68 (57)	58.2	1.3	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	12	22.7	26.7	40%	3.47	1.6	19	362	133	229	3.7	48%	52%	43%	37%	18%	.13
PITT Defense	13	28.4	21.6	38.1%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	12	28.8	32.2	42.6%	4.04	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	42%	15%	.27
PITT Offense	13	32.9	37.6	41.6%	4.11	1.3	21	375	119	256	4.3	42%	58%	45%	39%	21%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	12	29:53	19.3	34%	52%	5.2	45.3	1.6	1.3	4.8	1.8	0	29.5
Pittsburgh	13	24:01	20.7	38%	52%	6.4	58.2	1.3	1.2	7.6	3	6	27.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	12	48% (84)	43% (77)	35.9	132.8	3.7	14 (98)	.16 (50)	3.29 (25)	73% (77)	11% (96)	0.91 (92)
PITT Defense	13	45% (13)	38% (20)	-	-	-	-	- (13)	2.36 (2)	48% (1)	12% (25)	0.98 (67)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	12	49% (53)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (91)	3.29 (112)	77% (89)	9% (104)	0.99 (69)
PITT Offense	13	42% (116)	45% (56)	27.3	118.6	4.3	14 (98)	.18 (42)	3.1 (53)	77% (40)	12% (119)	1.05 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	12	52% (52)	37% (113)	20.5	33.4	229	6.9	11.2	16 (87)	14 (115)	.11 (122)	1.5 (86)	33% (101)	26% (115)	.17 (120)	7% (100)	1.7 (129)
PITT Defense	13	55% (122)	38% (38)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (70)	1.8 (123)	37% (3)	31% (82)	.33 (82)	6% (50)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	12	50% (83)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.37 (121)	1.6 (84)	32% (67)	32% (84)	.43 (110)	6% (67)	2.1 (82)
PITT Offense	13	58% (18)	39% (97)	21.8	35.9	256.2	7.1	11.7	27 (20)	13 (103)	.13 (112)	1.6 (55)	32% (85)	35% (30)	.36 (60)	8% (126)	2.1 (40)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -2.00 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -2.00 Pittsburgh: 5.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.1 Pittsburgh: 4.9

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 5.915 #56
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Pittsburgh's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Pittsburgh's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Pittsburgh 33
Virginia 24

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Pittsburgh 35
Virginia 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Pittsburgh 33
Virginia 25

Total Points: 58

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.6
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Pittsburgh's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Pittsburgh	19	Virginia	24	Pittsburgh -7.5	Virginia	56.5	Under
2022	11/12	Virginia	7	Pittsburgh	37	Pittsburgh -5.5	Pittsburgh	41.5	Over
2021	11/20	Pittsburgh	48	Virginia	38	Pittsburgh -12.5	Virginia	69.0	Over
2019	08/31	Pittsburgh	14	Virginia	30	Virginia -2.5	Virginia	46.5	Under
2018	11/02	Virginia	13	Pittsburgh	23	Virginia -7	Pittsburgh	45.5	Under
2017	10/28	Pittsburgh	31	Virginia	14	Pittsburgh -1	Pittsburgh	49.0	Under
2016	10/15	Virginia	31	Pittsburgh	45	Pittsburgh -5	Pittsburgh	60.5	Over
2015	10/10	Pittsburgh	26	Virginia	19	Pittsburgh -10	Virginia	45.0	Push
2014	10/04	Virginia	24	Pittsburgh	19	Virginia -4	Virginia	0
2013	09/28	Pittsburgh	14	Virginia	3	Pittsburgh -6.5	Pittsburgh	0
2007	09/29	Virginia	44	Pittsburgh	14
2006	09/02	Pittsburgh	38	Virginia	13
2003	12/27	Virginia	23	Pittsburgh	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Pittsburgh	8	5	3 Overs
Virginia	5	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 5	3 - 7	3 - 4	0 - 3
Road Teams	5 - 8	7 - 3	3 - 0	4 - 3

(#69) UVA at (#56) PITT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	PITT
Power RatePwr	#69	#56
SP+SP+	#91	#50
Perf GradeGrade	#115	#88
OffenseOff	#109	#116
DefenseDef	#109	#41
Spec TeamsST	#44	#37
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#48

Virginia Notes(12/17) Signed QB C Morris (N Tex/OU/TCU)
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
(8/19) QB Colandrea good find LY, portal WRs decent
Virginia Injury Report

Pittsburgh Notes(11/18) Fought vs Clem, Yarnell 350 yds, Rgame awful
(11/13) 2 bad L's, QB's awful (14-35, 2 Int), Rgame meh
(11/2) Fraud, Rgame awful, Holstein garbage @ SMU
(10/24) Pass rush great, forced 5 INTs, 217 yds Off/41 Pts
(10/12) Off was awful vs Cal, 1-12 3rd down, lucky to W
(10/4) Pass good, Run great. Top 10 OL yds, success
(9/12) Pitt is top 5 plays per minute through 2 games
(9/8) Holstein great vs Cin in comeback. Rgame good
(9/1) Holstein QB, Off torched Kent, balanced. Def big ?
(8/19) Off was near worst in P4 & OL worst in P4 LY
(8/19) Bowl poss only if Off improves vs. light sched
(7/30) New OC Bell interesting, WC OC had top 10 off
Pittsburgh Injury Report

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	PITT Def
Perf GradePerf	#109	#41
SuccessSuc	#103	#25
ExplosiveExp	#105	#122
PPAPPA	#102	#35
PowerPwr	#84	#45
SP+SP+	#95	#64
Pts POPPO	#106	#57
HavocHav	#109	#31

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#84	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#20
Run ExplRExp	#92	#67
PPAExp	#50	#13
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#25	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#5
TackleTak	-	#33

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#38
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#123
PPAExp	#122	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#120	#46
F7 HavocF7	#96	#25
DB HavocDB	#100	#50

Pittsburgh on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	UVA Def
Perf GradePerf	#116	#109
SuccessSuc	#85	#80
ExplosiveExp	#19	#87
PPAPPA	#91	#116
PowerPwr	#78	#96
SP+SP+	#54	#86
Pts POPPO	#49	#94
HavocHav	#128	#91

Pittsburgh Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#83	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#77
Run ExplRExp	#41	#69
PPAExp	#42	#91
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#71	#121
TackleTak	-	#112

Pittsburgh Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#97	#77
Pass ExplPExl	#55	#84
PPAExp	#112	#121
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#72
F7 HavocF7	#119	#104
DB HavocDB	#126	#67

Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 52°

Rematch from Week 11
Pittsburgh -7.5 (56.5)
Virginia won at Pittsburgh this year (24-19)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Pittsburgh last year (24-19)
Pittsburgh beat Virginia in 2022 (37-7)

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	198	320	62%	2125	13	11	6.6
Tony Muskett	45	76	59%	545	3	3	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Pace	114	499	3	4.4	43
Xavier Brown	80	488	1	6.1	75
Anthony Colandrea	128	277	2	2.2	35
Noah Vaughn	36	120	0	3.3	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Fields	55	808	5	14.7	45
Tyler Neville (Tr)	37	394	2	10.6	39
Trell Harris (Tr)	15	221	2	14.7	45
Kobe Pace	21	189	0	9.0	52

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Trey McDonald	57	3	1	1	1
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamren Robinson	64	6	5	2	1
Kameron Butler	43	3	3	8	2
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4
James Jackson	45	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kempton Shine (Tr)	37	2	0	0	7
Jermarian Jackson	55	1	1	0	6
Jonas Sanker	98	9	2	1	4

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Eli Holstein (Tr)	179	290	62%	2225	17	7	7.7
Nate Yarnell	98	167	59%	1056	10	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)	184	966	5	5.3	72
Eli Holstein (Tr)	81	328	3	4.0	49
Daniel Carter	22	208	4	9.5	43
Julian Dugger	21	88	1	4.2	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Konata Mumpfield	52	813	5	15.6	46
Desmond Reid (Tr)	52	579	4	11.1	72
Kenny Johnson	46	537	3	11.7	46
Raphael Williams	36	419	6	11.6	35

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Brandon George	80	6	2	7	0
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Jimmy Scott	30	13	6	6	2
Nate Matlack (Tr)	23	7	5	8	3
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9
Rashad Battle	35	1	0	1	8
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7