Virginia at Pittsburgh - 2024 Matchup Preview
Virginia logo Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Pittsburgh -7.5 (56.5) (-275)  Open: -7.0 | 57.5
Virginia 24 - Pittsburgh: 19  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UVA coming off BYE
Our Line: Pittsburgh -9.5   (SP+ PITT -10)

Projected Score: UVA: 24 - PITT: 33 (57)
PITT Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 185 miles
Panthers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (65 - 50)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Virginia vs Richmond-21
Sat 9/7 Virginia at Wake Forest-1.555.5W 31 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Virginia vs Maryland-2.555.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.552.0W 43 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Virginia vs Boston College-2.052.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/12 Virginia vs Louisville+7.054.0L 20 - 24UY
Sat 10/19 Virginia at Clemson+20.057.5L 31 - 48OY
Sat 10/26 Virginia vs North Carolina-3.558.5L 14 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.556.5W 24 - 19UY
Sat 11/16 Virginia at Notre Dame+20.551.0L 14 - 35UN
Sat 11/23 Virginia vs SMU+11.554.5L 7 - 33UN
Sat 11/30 Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.544.5L 17 - 37ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Pittsburgh vs Kent State-23.555.5W 55 - 24OY
Sat 9/7 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati-2.562.5W 28 - 27UN
Sat 9/14 Pittsburgh vs West Virginia+2.560.5W 38 - 34OY
Sat 9/21 Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State-29.559.5W 73 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Pittsburgh at North Carolina-2.563.0W 34 - 24UY
Sat 10/12 Pittsburgh vs California-3.557.5W 17 - 15UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/24 Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-5.062.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Pittsburgh at SMU+7.055.5L 25 - 48ON
Sat 11/9 Pittsburgh vs Virginia-7.556.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/16 Pittsburgh vs Clemson+12.052.0L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/23 Pittsburgh at Louisville+7.057.0L 9 - 37UN
Sat 11/30 Pittsburgh at Boston College+3.550.5L 23 - 34ON
Thu 12/26 Pittsburgh vs Toledo-6.548.5L 46 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#88 (.15)41% (84)22.742% (82)3 (89)11841% (76)2513.68 (85)#117 (.26)45% (113)28.848% (118)43% (90)4.15 (103)55.31.71.2
PITT#119 (.09)38% (113)32.941% (90)2.86 (109)10235% (117)2163.46 (98)#23 (.11)39% (39)28.439% (32)41% (67)3.41 (33)64.41.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PITT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1222.726.741%3.681.7213691182513.149%50%42%41%19%.15
PITT Defense1228.421.639.4%3.411.3 - - - - - 58%41%39%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1228.832.245.2%4.151.2 - - - - - 51%48%48%43%15%.26
PITT Offense1232.937.637.7%3.461.8163181022163.445%54%41%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1231:242136%60%6.555.31.71.24.80.9128.1
Pittsburgh1227:3616.331%50%7.864.41.81.36.92.5226.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1249% (76)42% (82)37.8117.93.112 (116).11 (91)3 (89)70% (98)13% (123)0.89 (113)
PITT Defense1258% (131)39% (32) - - - - .03 (17)2.91 (37)62% (16)12% (18)0.98 (57)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1251% (87)48% (118) - - - - .26 (124)3.36 (116)76% (92)9% (108)1.03 (84)
PITT Offense1245% (100)41% (90)29.7101.93.410 (124).06 (118)2.86 (109)75% (52)11% (94)0.89 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1250% (62)41% (76)20.733250.87.612.119 (78)14 (107).29 (67)1.6 (66)32% (83)29% (79).21 (105)6% (79)1.8 (126)
PITT Defense1241% (3)41% (67) - - - - - - 10 (67).27 (67)1.7 (103)32% (58)30% (75).29 (58)6% (85)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1248% (48)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).32 (97)1.6 (54)28% (127)30% (62).33 (76)6% (57)2.1 (85)
PITT Offense1254% (34)35% (117)16302167.213.517 (85)12 (85).16 (109)1.7 (36)34% (103)24% (122).17 (114)8% (123)2.2 (26)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -2.00 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -2.00   Pittsburgh: 5.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.1   Pittsburgh: 4.9




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 5.915 #56
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
2024 Talent Rating: 768.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Pittsburgh's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Pittsburgh's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Pittsburgh 33
Virginia 24


Projected Total Points: 57
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.6
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Pittsburgh's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Pittsburgh19Virginia24VirginiaPittsburgh -7.5Virginia56.5Under
202211/12Virginia7Pittsburgh37PittsburghPittsburgh -5.5Pittsburgh41.5Over
202111/20Pittsburgh48Virginia38PittsburghPittsburgh -12.5Virginia69.0Over
201908/31Pittsburgh14Virginia30VirginiaVirginia -2.5Virginia46.5Under
201811/02Virginia13Pittsburgh23PittsburghVirginia -7Pittsburgh45.5Under
201710/28Pittsburgh31Virginia14PittsburghPittsburgh -1Pittsburgh49.0Under
201610/15Virginia31Pittsburgh45PittsburghPittsburgh -5Pittsburgh60.5Over
201510/10Pittsburgh26Virginia19PittsburghPittsburgh -10Virginia45.0Push
201410/04Virginia24Pittsburgh19VirginiaVirginia -4Virginia0
201309/28Pittsburgh14Virginia3PittsburghPittsburgh -6.5Pittsburgh0
200709/29Virginia44Pittsburgh14Virginia
200609/02Pittsburgh38Virginia13Pittsburgh
200312/27Virginia23Pittsburgh16Virginia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh853 Overs
Virginia554 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 53 - 73 - 40 - 3
Road Teams5 - 87 - 33 - 04 - 3

(#69) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.00 #69
Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Virginia Notes
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
Virginia     Ratings Matchup     Pittsburgh
Power #69
#56
Off #84
#78
Def #96
#45
Talent #50
#37
SP+ #91
#50
SP+ Off #95
#54
SP+ Def #86
#64

Rematch from Week 11
Pittsburgh -7.5 (56.5)
Virginia won at Pittsburgh this year (24-19)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Pittsburgh last year (24-19)
Pittsburgh beat Virginia in 2022 (37-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 52°

Team Information
Injuries: UVA | PITT
Depth Chart: UVA | PITT
Rosters: UVA | PITT
(#56) Pittsburgh Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.915 #56
Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 768.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.11 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Poor OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Pittsburgh Notes
(11/13) 2 bad L's, QB's awful (14-35, 2 Int), Rgame meh
(11/2) Fraud, Rgame awful, Holstein garbage @ SMU
(10/24) Pass rush great, forced 5 INTs, 217 yds Off/41 Pts
(10/12) Off was awful vs Cal, 1-12 3rd down, lucky to W
(10/4) Pass good, Run great. Top 10 OL yds, success
(9/12) Pitt is top 5 plays per minute through 2 games
(9/8) Holstein great vs Cin in comeback. Rgame good
(9/1) Holstein QB, Off torched Kent, balanced. Def big ?
(8/19) Off was near worst in P4 & OL worst in P4 LY
(8/19) Bowl poss only if Off improves vs. light sched


  
Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea19832062%212513116.6
Malachi Fields2367%510017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Brown8048816.175
Anthony Colandrea12827722.235
Noah Vaughn3612003.313
Jack Griese155503.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Fields55808514.745
Tyler Neville (Tr)37394210.639
Trell Harris (Tr)15221214.745
Chris Tyree (Tr)2413605.725

View Virginia's Full Roster
Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Robinson646521
Trey McDonald573111
Jermarian Jackson551106
Corey Thomas Jr. (Tr)471002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Robinson646521
James Jackson455220
Anthony Britton383221
Billy Koudelka41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kempton Shine (Tr)372007
Jermarian Jackson551106
Kendren Smith (Tr)392014

Pittsburgh's OC Kade Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Eli Holstein (Tr)17929062%22251777.7
Nate Yarnell9816759%10561056.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)18496655.372
Eli Holstein (Tr)8132834.049
Julian Dugger218814.220
Che Nwabuko676112.757
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)52579411.172
Kenny Johnson46537311.746
Raphael Williams36419611.635
Censere Lee19254313.482

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster
Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis10016793
Rasheem Biles8014439
Braylan Lovelace5311411
Javon Mcintyre514013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis10016793
Jimmy Scott3013662
Nate Matlack (Tr)237583
Braylan Lovelace5311411
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles8014439
Tamon Lynum (Tr)372106
Kyle Louis10016793