California at Pittsburgh - 2024 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears at Pittsburgh Panthers

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Pittsburgh -3.5 (57.5) (-166) Open: -2.5
Pittsburgh 17 - California: 15 (ACC)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (19 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (SP+ PITT -1)
Projected Score: CAL: 27 - PITT: 29 (56)
PITT Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
CAL Travel: 2248 miles, 3 hrs behind

Panthers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (65 - 50)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
PITT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Pittsburgh vs Kent State	-23.5	55.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	-2.5	62.5	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	Pittsburgh vs West Virginia	+2.5	60.5	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State	-29.5	59.5	W 73 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Pittsburgh at North Carolina	-2.5	63.0	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Pittsburgh vs California	-3.5	57.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/24	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-5.0	62.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Pittsburgh at SMU	+7.0	55.5	L 25 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/9	Pittsburgh vs Virginia	-7.5	56.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Clemson	+12.0	52.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Pittsburgh at Louisville	+7.0	57.0	L 9 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/30	Pittsburgh at Boston College	+3.5	50.5	L 23 - 34	O	N
Thu 12/26	Pittsburgh vs Toledo	-6.5	48.5	L 46 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.1	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	22.3	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
PITT	#91 (.15)	42% (85)	32.9	45% (56)	3.1 (53)	119	39% (97)	256	4.11 (49)	#35 (.12)	38% (25)	28.4	38% (20)	38% (38)	3.68 (57)	58.2	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
PITT	#91 (.15)	42% (85)		45% (56)	3.1 (53)	119	39% (97)	256	4.11 (49)	#35 (.12)	38% (25)		38% (20)	38% (38)	3.68 (57)	58.2	1.3	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	25.1	19.4	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17
PITT Defense	13	28.4	21.6	38.1%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	22.3	23.8	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14
PITT Offense	13	32.9	37.6	41.6%	4.11	1.3	21	375	119	256	4.3	42%	58%	45%	39%	21%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6
Pittsburgh	13	24:01	20.7	38%	52%	6.4	58.2	1.3	1.2	7.6	3	6	27.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)
PITT Defense	13	45% (13)	38% (20)	-	-	-	-	- (13)	2.36 (2)	48% (1)	12% (25)	0.98 (67)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)
PITT Offense	13	42% (116)	45% (56)	27.3	118.6	4.3	14 (98)	.18 (42)	3.1 (53)	77% (40)	12% (119)	1.05 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)
PITT Defense	13	55% (122)	38% (38)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (70)	1.8 (123)	37% (3)	31% (82)	.33 (82)	6% (50)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)
PITT Offense	13	58% (18)	39% (97)	21.8	35.9	256.2	7.1	11.7	27 (20)	13 (103)	.13 (112)	1.6 (55)	32% (85)	35% (30)	.36 (60)	8% (126)	2.1 (40)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 4.77 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 4.77 Pittsburgh: 5.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 4.0 Pittsburgh: 4.9

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 5.915 #56
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Pittsburgh's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Pittsburgh's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.4
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Pittsburgh 29
California 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Pittsburgh 33
California 23

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Pittsburgh 29
California 24

Total Points: 53

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.6
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Pittsburgh's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Pittsburgh	17	California	15	Pittsburgh -3.5	California	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Pittsburgh	1	0	0 Overs
California	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#44) CAL at (#56) PITT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	PITT
Power RatePwr	#44	#56
SP+SP+	#55	#50
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#88
OffenseOff	#93	#116
DefenseDef	#32	#41
Spec TeamsST	#13	#37
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#48

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

Pittsburgh Notes(11/18) Fought vs Clem, Yarnell 350 yds, Rgame awful
(11/13) 2 bad L's, QB's awful (14-35, 2 Int), Rgame meh
(11/2) Fraud, Rgame awful, Holstein garbage @ SMU
(10/24) Pass rush great, forced 5 INTs, 217 yds Off/41 Pts
(10/12) Off was awful vs Cal, 1-12 3rd down, lucky to W
(10/4) Pass good, Run great. Top 10 OL yds, success
(9/12) Pitt is top 5 plays per minute through 2 games
(9/8) Holstein great vs Cin in comeback. Rgame good
(9/1) Holstein QB, Off torched Kent, balanced. Def big ?
(8/19) Off was near worst in P4 & OL worst in P4 LY
(8/19) Bowl poss only if Off improves vs. light sched
(7/30) New OC Bell interesting, WC OC had top 10 off
Pittsburgh Injury Report

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	PITT Def
Perf GradePerf	#93	#41
SuccessSuc	#88	#25
ExplosiveExp	#52	#122
PPAPPA	#79	#35
PowerPwr	#85	#45
SP+SP+	#65	#64
Pts POPPO	#125	#57
HavocHav	#102	#31

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#107	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#20
Run ExplRExp	#22	#67
PPAExp	#99	#13
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#5
TackleTak	-	#33

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#38
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#123
PPAExp	#72	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#46
F7 HavocF7	#126	#25
DB HavocDB	#23	#50

Pittsburgh on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	CAL Def
Perf GradePerf	#116	#32
SuccessSuc	#85	#52
ExplosiveExp	#19	#88
PPAPPA	#91	#48
PowerPwr	#78	#39
SP+SP+	#54	#40
Pts POPPO	#49	#20
HavocHav	#128	#42

Pittsburgh Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#83	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#53
Run ExplRExp	#41	#37
PPAExp	#42	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#71	#71
TackleTak	-	#28

Pittsburgh Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#97	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#55	#92
PPAExp	#112	#52
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#45
F7 HavocF7	#119	#72
DB HavocDB	#126	#12

Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 72°

Rematch from Week 7
Pittsburgh -3.5 (57.5)
Pittsburgh won vs California this year (17-15)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat California last year (17-15)

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Eli Holstein (Tr)	179	290	62%	2225	17	7	7.7
Nate Yarnell	98	167	59%	1056	10	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)	184	966	5	5.3	72
Eli Holstein (Tr)	81	328	3	4.0	49
Daniel Carter	22	208	4	9.5	43
Julian Dugger	21	88	1	4.2	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Konata Mumpfield	52	813	5	15.6	46
Desmond Reid (Tr)	52	579	4	11.1	72
Kenny Johnson	46	537	3	11.7	46
Raphael Williams	36	419	6	11.6	35

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Brandon George	80	6	2	7	0
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Jimmy Scott	30	13	6	6	2
Nate Matlack (Tr)	23	7	5	8	3
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9
Rashad Battle	35	1	0	1	8
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7