Massachusetts at Toledo - 2024 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -17.5 (50.5) (-1000) Open: -20.0 | 51.5
Toledo 38 - Massachusetts: 23

Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Don Brown (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Toledo -15.5 (SP+ TOL -19)
Projected Score: UMASS: 17 - TOL: 33 (50)
TOL Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
UMASS Travel: 570 miles

Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	-2.5	49.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/7	Massachusetts at Toledo	+17.5	50.5	L 23 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Massachusetts at Buffalo	+3.5	45.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/21	Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut	-19.5	52.0	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Massachusetts at Miami (OH)	+15.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Massachusetts at Northern Illinois	+14.0	41.0	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Massachusetts vs Missouri	+27.0	54.0	L 3 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Massachusetts vs Wagner	-23.0	48.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Massachusetts at Mississippi State	+19.5	59.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+17.0	53.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Massachusetts at Georgia	+42.5	55.5	L 21 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Massachusetts vs UConn	+9.5	49.5	L 42 - 47	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Toledo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Toledo vs Duquesne	-27.5	53.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-17.5	50.5	W 38 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/14	Toledo at Mississippi State	+10.5	56.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Toledo at Western Kentucky	-2.0	60.5	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-4.5	44.0	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Toledo at Buffalo	-10.5	44.5	L 15 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/19	Toledo at Northern Illinois	+3.0	42.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-1.5	47.5	L 26 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/2	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	54.5	W 29 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-15.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Toledo vs Ohio	-1.5	47.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/26	Toledo at Akron	-9.5	50.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/26	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#72 (.18)	42% (68)	11.1	45% (47)	3.35 (21)	142	40% (86)	214	3.73 (82)	#124 (.31)	49% (132)	38.6	53% (131)	43% (92)	4.31 (114)	70.9	1.4	1.2
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	30.8	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	13.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	9.3	42%	3.73	1.4	18	356	142	214	4.4	51%	48%	45%	40%	21%	.18
TOL Defense	14	13.3	7.7	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	42.5	48.5%	4.31	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	53%	43%	15%	.31
TOL Offense	14	30.8	45.8	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	29:45	17.8	36%	23%	8	70.9	1.4	1.2	4.5	1.5	2	26.5
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	51% (59)	45% (47)	32.5	142.2	4.4	19 (69)	.25 (18)	3.35 (21)	62% (125)	14% (127)	1.14 (11)
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	58% (130)	53% (131)	-	-	-	-	.34 (131)	3.83 (133)	85% (123)	9% (89)	1 (69)
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	48% (76)	40% (86)	17.7	29	214.1	7.4	12.1	14 (106)	11 (68)	.18 (99)	1.5 (85)	32% (62)	33% (50)	.43 (35)	7% (109)	2.2 (36)
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	42% (4)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (94)	1.8 (122)	29% (121)	37% (125)	.47 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (30)
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 245.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -16.22 Toledo: -3.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9 Toledo: -2.5

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -3.5 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
Massachusetts 17

Projected Total Points: 50

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Toledo	38	Massachusetts	23	Toledo -17.5	Massachusetts	50.5	Over
2023	10/07	Massachusetts	24	Toledo	41	Toledo -19	Massachusetts	55.5	Over
2022	09/10	Toledo	55	Massachusetts	10	Toledo -28	Toledo	49.0	Over
2021	10/02	Massachusetts	7	Toledo	45	Toledo -26.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2015	10/24	Massachusetts	35	Toledo	51	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	61.0	Over
2014	10/25	Toledo	42	Massachusetts	35	Toledo -17.5	Massachusetts	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	6	3	4 Overs
Massachusetts	0	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	2 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 3	4 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 1

(#115) UMASS at (#99) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#115	#99
SP+SP+	#129	#80
Perf GradeGrade	#128	#50
OffenseOff	#114	#105
DefenseDef	#117	#14
Spec TeamsST	#126	#17
TalentTal	#98	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#74

Massachusetts Notes(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Injury Report

Toledo Notes(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#14
SuccessSuc	#68	#29
ExplosiveExp	#48	#38
PPAPPA	#72	#22
PowerPwr	#69	#50
SP+SP+	#110	#64
Pts POPPO	#82	#22
HavocHav	#129	#43

Massachusetts Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#119	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#54
Run ExplRExp	#11	#64
PPAExp	#18	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#29	#77
TackleTak	-	#3

Massachusetts Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#85	#43
PPAExp	#99	#10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#57	#21
F7 HavocF7	#127	#73
DB HavocDB	#109	#16

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#117
SuccessSuc	#34	#132
ExplosiveExp	#39	#66
PPAPPA	#27	#124
PowerPwr	#121	#122
SP+SP+	#88	#129
Pts POPPO	#26	#114
HavocHav	#15	#97

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#128	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#131
Run ExplRExp	#38	#69
PPAExp	#41	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#133
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#133
TackleTak	-	#14

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#104
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#122
PPAExp	#24	#94
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#117	#86
F7 HavocF7	#24	#89
DB HavocDB	#35	#90

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Toledo -17.5 (50.5)
Toledo won vs Massachusetts this year (38-23)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (38-23)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-24)

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8
AJ Hairston	40	73	55%	480	5	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen John	111	583	5	5.3	68
C.J. Hester (Tr)	119	529	4	4.4	24
Taisun Phommachanh	107	317	3	3.0	33
Brandon Campbell (Tr)	61	233	3	3.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)	51	870	6	17.1	75
Ty Harding	18	303	5	16.8	58
Jacquon Gibson	23	270	1	11.7	39
Sterling Galban (Tr)	25	210	0	8.4	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Gerrell Johnson	74	3	1	2	2
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	0	0	3
Te'Rai Powell	52	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Louce Julien	43	7	4	1	1
Kofi Asare	30	6	3	1	1
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Christian Lebrun	22	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lake Ellis (Tr)	29	3	5
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)	27	2	3

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Sevaughn Clark	62	209	0	3.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5