Toledo at Eastern Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -10 (54.5) (-360) Open: -6.0
Toledo 29 - Eastern Michigan: 28 (Mid-American)

Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

EMU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -6.5 (SP+ TOL -11)
Projected Score: TOL: 28 - EMU: 22 (50)
TOL Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
TOL Travel: 41 miles

Eagles (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Chris Creighton (52 - 68)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (24 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
EMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Toledo vs Duquesne	-27.5	53.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-17.5	50.5	W 38 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/14	Toledo at Mississippi State	+10.5	56.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Toledo at Western Kentucky	-2.0	60.5	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-4.5	44.0	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Toledo at Buffalo	-10.5	44.5	L 15 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/19	Toledo at Northern Illinois	+3.0	42.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-1.5	47.5	L 26 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/2	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	54.5	W 29 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-15.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Toledo vs Ohio	-1.5	47.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/26	Toledo at Akron	-9.5	50.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/26	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts	+2.5	49.0	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Eastern Michigan at Washington	+25.0	48.5	L 9 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State	+2.5	53.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)	-25.5	45.5	W 36 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Eastern Michigan at Kent State	-14.0	46.0	W 52 - 33	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)	+3.0	45.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/19	Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan	-3.5	52.5	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Eastern Michigan at Akron	-2.5	50.5	L 21 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/2	Eastern Michigan vs Toledo	+10.0	54.5	L 28 - 29	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/13	Eastern Michigan at Ohio	+10.5	51.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
Wed 11/20	Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo	-1.0	53.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/30	Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan	+6.5	56.5	L 18 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	30.8	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	13.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3
EMU	#123 (.07)	36% (127)	24.1	39% (115)	2.94 (101)	112	34% (122)	152	3.85 (74)	#73 (.19)	42% (74)	29.8	47% (106)	38% (24)	3.68 (58)	58.6	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
EMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	30.8	17.3	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28
EMU Defense	13	29.8	24.8	42.4%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	47%	38%	15%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	13.3	16.7	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1
EMU Offense	13	24.1	23.7	35.8%	3.85	1.4	16	264	112	152	3.4	50%	48%	39%	34%	19%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31
Eastern Michigan	13	28:59	15.9	35%	53%	6.2	58.6	1.4	1.4	4.5	1.6	3	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)
EMU Defense	13	54% (117)	47% (106)	-	-	-	-	.16 (82)	3.43 (121)	64% (22)	9% (102)	0.93 (33)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)
EMU Offense	13	50% (67)	39% (115)	32.9	112.1	3.4	18 (77)	.07 (109)	2.94 (101)	76% (48)	11% (97)	0.92 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)
EMU Defense	13	45% (18)	38% (24)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.26 (62)	1.7 (108)	31% (92)	32% (101)	.43 (118)	6% (76)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)
EMU Offense	13	48% (78)	34% (122)	15.2	27.5	152	5.5	10	10 (120)	12 (85)	.1 (122)	1.4 (129)	34% (108)	21% (130)	.09 (130)	8% (115)	1.8 (124)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50 Eastern Michigan: -12.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Eastern Michigan: -13.3

Eastern Michigan's Power Ratings
Eastern Michigan's Power Rating: -12.69 #116
Eastern Michigan's Offense Rating: 13.59 #114
Eastern Michigan's Defense Rating: 13.76 #100
2024 Talent Rating: 261.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #114
Eastern Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Eastern Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 28
Eastern Michigan 22

Projected Total Points: 50

Eastern Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

Eastern Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Eastern Michigan	28	Toledo	29	Toledo -10	Eastern Michigan	54.5	Over
2023	11/08	Toledo	49	Eastern Michigan	23	Toledo -19.5	Toledo	45.5	Over
2022	10/29	Eastern Michigan	24	Toledo	27	Toledo -4	Eastern Michigan	54.0	Under
2021	11/02	Toledo	49	Eastern Michigan	52	Toledo -9	Eastern Michigan	54.5	Over
2020	11/18	Eastern Michigan	28	Toledo	45	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	62.5	Over
2019	10/26	Toledo	37	Eastern Michigan	34	Toledo -2.5	Toledo	52.0	Over
2018	10/13	Eastern Michigan	28	Toledo	26	Toledo -2	Eastern Michigan	62.0	Under
2017	10/07	Toledo	20	Eastern Michigan	15	Toledo -13.5	Eastern Michigan	60.0	Under
2016	10/08	Eastern Michigan	20	Toledo	35	Toledo -17.5	Eastern Michigan	65.5	Under
2015	10/17	Toledo	63	Eastern Michigan	20	Toledo -28	Toledo	63.0	Over
2014	11/28	Eastern Michigan	16	Toledo	52	Toledo -21.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/02	Toledo	55	Eastern Michigan	16	Toledo -28	Toledo	0
2012	10/13	Eastern Michigan	47	Toledo	52
2011	10/08	Toledo	54	Eastern Michigan	16
2010	10/30	Eastern Michigan	7	Toledo	42
2009	11/20	Toledo	47	Eastern Michigan	21
2008	09/13	Eastern Michigan	17	Toledo	41
2007	11/03	Toledo	52	Eastern Michigan	28
2006	10/21	Eastern Michigan	17	Toledo	13
2005	10/08	Toledo	30	Eastern Michigan	3
2004	09/18	Eastern Michigan	32	Toledo	42
2003	10/11	Toledo	49	Eastern Michigan	14
2002	09/07	Eastern Michigan	13	Toledo	65
2001	11/17	Toledo	28	Eastern Michigan	7
2000	10/06	Eastern Michigan	14	Toledo	42

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Eastern Michigan	3	6	6 Overs
Toledo	22	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	8 - 4	4 - 2	4 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	4 - 8	2 - 4	2 - 4

(#99) TOL at (#116) EMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	EMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#116
SP+SP+	#80	#114
Perf GradeGrade	#50	#86
OffenseOff	#105	#87
DefenseDef	#14	#72
Spec TeamsST	#17	#114
TalentTal	#72	#90
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Toledo Notes(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report

Eastern Michigan Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, Rgame awful vs Buff. Vs WMU for bowl
(11/18) Off was awful & Def all. 21 pts in 2H in Ohio L
(11/2) Def 22 pt 4th Q collapse cost them vs Toledo
(10/20) Synder 17-38, 300, 3 TDs, Run Def all 285 yds
(10/13) Def awful vs M-Oh. Snyder bad, Rgame bad
(10/4) Off good, Def v bad. QB Synder best in MAC?
(9/14) 52 car/152 yds vs Jax St? QB Snyder good
(9/1) Good W @ UMass. Off Ok, Def good wk 1
(8/15) Called the dirtiest team in the MAC.
(8/9) QB Snyder has 25 starts at Buffalo
(8/7) Stats LY are more like a 3-4 win team, bravo
(7/30) MAC Dean Creighton great job, W last 2 to bowl
Eastern Michigan Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	EMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#72
SuccessSuc	#34	#74
ExplosiveExp	#39	#48
PPAPPA	#27	#73
PowerPwr	#121	#100
SP+SP+	#88	#115
Pts POPPO	#26	#58
HavocHav	#15	#99

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	EMU Def
Run GameRun	#128	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#106
Run ExplRExp	#38	#33
PPAExp	#41	#82
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#121
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#116
TackleTak	-	#26

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	EMU Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#24
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#108
PPAExp	#24	#62
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#19
F7 HavocF7	#24	#102
DB HavocDB	#35	#76

Eastern Michigan on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	EMU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#14
SuccessSuc	#127	#29
ExplosiveExp	#127	#38
PPAPPA	#123	#22
PowerPwr	#114	#50
SP+SP+	#110	#64
Pts POPPO	#74	#22
HavocHav	#112	#43

Eastern Michigan Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	EMU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#126	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#54
Run ExplRExp	#104	#64
PPAExp	#109	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	#101	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#49	#77
TackleTak	-	#3

Eastern Michigan Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	EMU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#122	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#129	#43
PPAExp	#122	#10
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#21
F7 HavocF7	#97	#73
DB HavocDB	#115	#16

Program Comparison
EMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rynearson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Toledo 10.0 (54.5)
Toledo won at Eastern Michigan this year (29-28)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Eastern Michigan in 2024 (29-28)
Toledo beat Eastern Michigan in 2023 (49-23)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Sevaughn Clark	62	209	0	3.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5

EMU's OC Mike Piatkowski (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cole Snyder (Tr)	239	402	60%	2676	15	9	6.7
Jeremiah Salem	8	11	73%	126	1	1	11.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Delbert Mimms III (Tr)	182	799	9	4.4	41
Cole Snyder (Tr)	136	322	4	2.4	29
Elijah Jackson-Anderson	54	218	2	4.0	40
Joey Mattord	29	118	1	4.1	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terry Lockett	46	660	5	14.3	79
Oran Singleton Jr.	64	644	2	10.1	44
Markus Allen	42	636	3	15.1	78
Max Reese	27	232	2	8.6	34

View Eastern Michigan's Full Roster

EMU's DC Ben Needham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Djonkam (Tr)	98	12	3	4	3
Luke Murphy (Tr)	94	5	0	4	0
Quentavius Scandrett	54	0	0	1	2
Peyton Price	51	9	4	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jefferson Adam (Tr)	26	7	5	0	0
Justin Jefferson	34	5	4	9	0
Peyton Price	51	9	4	6	0
James Djonkam (Tr)	98	12	3	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daiquan White	31	1	0	0	7
James Djonkam (Tr)	98	12	3	4	3
Bryce Llewellyn (Tr)	8	0	0	0	2