Ohio at Toledo - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ohio logo Ohio Bobcats at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Wednesday, November 20th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -1.5 (47.0) (-115)  Open: -3.0
Ohio 24 - Toledo: 7  (Mid-American)

 
Bobcats (11 - 3) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (23 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
TOL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ohio -0.5   (SP+ OHIO -5)

Projected Score: OHIO: 24 - TOL: 24 (49)
TOL Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
OHIO Travel: 180 miles
Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ohio at Syracuse+17.547.5L 22 - 38OY
Sat 9/7 Ohio vs South Alabama+1.555.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/14 Ohio vs Morgan State-24.545.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/21 Ohio at Kentucky+19.042.0L 6 - 41ON
Sat 9/28 Ohio vs Akron-8.546.0W 30 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Ohio at Central Michigan-3.050.5W 27 - 25ON
Sat 10/19 Ohio at Miami (OH)+3.543.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 10/26 Ohio vs Buffalo-4.046.5W 47 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Ohio at Kent State-20.553.5W 41 - 0UY
Wed 11/13 Ohio vs Eastern Michigan-10.551.5W 35 - 10UY
Wed 11/20 Ohio at Toledo+1.547.0W 24 - 7UY
Fri 11/29 Ohio vs Ball State-17.551.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Ohio vs Miami (OH)+2.543.5W 38 - 3UY
Fri 12/20 Ohio vs Jacksonville State-6.557.5W 30 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule
Toledo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Toledo vs Duquesne-27.553.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 9/7 Toledo vs Massachusetts-17.550.5W 38 - 23ON
Sat 9/14 Toledo at Mississippi State+10.556.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/21 Toledo at Western Kentucky-2.060.5L 21 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-4.544.0W 30 - 20OY
Sat 10/12 Toledo at Buffalo-10.544.5L 15 - 30ON
Sat 10/19 Toledo at Northern Illinois+3.042.5W 13 - 6UY
Sat 10/26 Toledo vs Bowling Green-1.547.5L 26 - 41ON
Sat 11/2 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-10.054.5W 29 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Toledo vs Central Michigan-15.052.5W 37 - 10UY
Wed 11/20 Toledo vs Ohio-1.547.0L 7 - 24UN
Tue 11/26 Toledo at Akron-9.550.5L 14 - 21UN
Thu 12/26 Toledo vs Pittsburgh+6.548.5W 48 - 46OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO#76 (.18)45% (33)29.344% (61)2.99 (90)14448% (17)2043.61 (92)#3 (.02)35% (8)18.135% (9)36% (12)2.45 (2)51.811.8
TOL#27 (.28)45% (34)28.346% (38)3.36 (20)19945% (37)2204.44 (26)#22 (.1)38% (29)23.241% (54)36% (14)3.33 (22)61.91.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OHIO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Offense1329.323.345.2%3.611213481442043.952%47%44%48%15%.18
TOL Defense1423.221.338.4%3.331.3 - - - - - 51%48%41%36%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OHIO Defense1318.123.535%2.451.8 - - - - - 44%54%35%36%21%.02
TOL Offense1428.331.245.2%4.441.5204191992205.357%42%46%45%13%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio1333:2320.846%50%5.651.811.87.42.8131.2
Toledo1427:5520.344%59%6.661.91.51.35.12.5231
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense1352% (46)44% (61)37.3144.43.918 (77).1 (95)2.99 (90)73% (75)9% (39)0.81 (131)
TOL Defense1451% (82)41% (54) - - - - .14 (66)3.12 (72)73% (71)10% (73)0.99 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense1344% (10)35% (9) - - - - -.06 (3)2.54 (8)70% (47)15% (3)1.07 (101)
TOL Offense1457% (17)46% (38)37.4198.95.331 (17).2 (41)3.36 (20)81% (14)8% (24)1.05 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense1347% (91)48% (17)18.429.5203.66.911.116 (92)9 (40).31 (57)1.4 (123)30% (31)35% (30).32 (72)6% (84)1.7 (131)
TOL Defense1448% (46)36% (14) - - - - - - 11 (53).12 (10)1.5 (43)34% (45)25% (17).2 (17)8% (16)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense1354% (123)36% (12) - - - - - - 15 (15).14 (14)1.5 (30)36% (15)23% (5).19 (15)5% (94)1.9 (27)
TOL Offense1442% (116)45% (37)16.626.9220.28.213.326 (31)10 (56).42 (24)1.7 (24)32% (80)32% (59).38 (52)5% (35)2 (78)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Ohio's Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
2024 Talent Rating: 376.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ohio's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Ohio's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -8.26   Toledo: -3.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: 2.3   Toledo: -2.5




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -3.5 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 612.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ohio Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.3
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.5

Ohio's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio 24
Toledo 24


Projected Total Points: 49
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/20Toledo7Ohio24OhioToledo -1.5Ohio47.0Under
202212/03Ohio7Toledo17ToledoToledo -3.5Toledo54.5Under
202111/16Ohio23Toledo35ToledoToledo -7.5Toledo57.5Over
201711/08Ohio38Toledo10OhioToledo -3Ohio63.5Under
201610/27Toledo26Ohio31OhioToledo -17.5Ohio57.0Push
201009/11Ohio13Toledo20Toledo
200710/20Toledo43Ohio40Toledo
200511/04Ohio21Toledo30Toledo
200410/16Toledo31Ohio13Toledo
200110/06Ohio41Toledo48Toledo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo721 Overs
Ohio333 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 71 - 40 - 21 - 2
Road Teams7 - 34 - 12 - 12 - 0

(#93) Ohio Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.26 #93
Offense Rating: 19.85 #68
Defense Rating: 8.89 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #67
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #47
Talent Rating: 376.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Good Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Great Run Def Success 34%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Ohio Notes
(12/8) HC Albin left for Charlotte after MAC title?
(11/29) Killed Ball St, in MAC title. Rgame 270/6.6 ypc
(11/29) Pass Def bad vs Ball St, 333 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int
(11/25) 4 str W's, bullied Toledo. Beat Ball St=MAC title
(11/18) 3 str W's, Killed EMU, Off good enough, Def good
(11/8) Rgame mauled Kent, Run Def/Pass Def great TW
(10/20) 2 Int, no Off for 3 quarters vs M-OH. Rgame bad
(10/13) Rgame 277 yds, 7.5 ypc, Def enough W CMU
(10/4) Off runs a lot/meh success, pass little/good suc?
(9/8) 200 yds rush in W (S Al). QB Navarro JAG
Ohio     Ratings Matchup     Toledo
Power #93
#99
Off #68
#121
Def #63
#50
Talent #122
#73
SP+ #63
#80
SP+ Off #67
#88
SP+ Def #47
#64

Rematch from Week 13
Toledo -1.5 (47.0)
Ohio won at Toledo this year (24-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Toledo last year (24-7)
Toledo beat Ohio in 2022 (17-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 43° - Wind: 7 mph


Team Information
Injuries: OHIO | TOL
Depth Chart: OHIO | TOL
Rosters: OHIO | TOL
(#99) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.5 #99
Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 612.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Toledo Notes
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful


  
Ohio's OC Brian Smith
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Navarro19529566%242313118.2
Nick Poulos224945%271215.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Tyus III (Tr)237121595.146
Parker Navarro1601047186.555
Rickey Hunt7639325.259
Nick Poulos2814915.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Coleman Owen (Tr)781235815.875
Chase Hendricks40471111.856
Rodney Harris II23299013.052
Mason Williams19211211.121

View Ohio's Full Roster
Ohio's DC John Hauser
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Leake (Tr)945113
Dustin Johnson (Tr)772004
Shay Taylor7411434
Marcel Walker (Tr)568672
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bradley Weaver44169100
Marcel Walker (Tr)568672
Shay Taylor7411434
Kadin Schmitz324400
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Walker537007
Tank Pearson502006
Shay Taylor7411434

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20733562%24572277.3
John Alan Richter436764%497407.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Connor Walendzak12245713.732
Tucker Gleason8833063.835
Sevaughn Clark6220903.426
Willie Shaw III4619034.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross73763410.573
Thomas Zsiros12148112.325
Eric Holley1412609.040
Jaden Dottin9123013.741

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braden Awls673107
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren612104
Avery Smith5010013
Lance Dixon (Tr)426204
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Dunn257420
Lance Dixon (Tr)426204
Malachi Davis194210
Esean Carter162100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith5010013
Braden Awls673107
Lance Dixon (Tr)426204