Toledo Rockets at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -2 (60.5) (-122) Open: 0.0
Western Kentucky 26 - Toledo: 21
Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL 2nd straight Road Game
WKU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -3.5 (SP+ WKU -0)
Projected Score: TOL: 25 - WKU: 28 (53)
TOL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TOL Travel: 357 miles, 1 hrs ahead
WKU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -3.5 (SP+ WKU -0)
Projected Score: TOL: 25 - WKU: 28 (53)
TOL Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TOL Travel: 357 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (26 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (26 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
| Toledo's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Toledo vs Duquesne | -27.5 | 53.5 | W 49 - 10 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Toledo vs Massachusetts | -17.5 | 50.5 | W 38 - 23 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Toledo at Mississippi State | +10.5 | 56.5 | W 41 - 17 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Toledo at Western Kentucky | -2.0 | 60.5 | L 21 - 26 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Toledo vs Miami (OH) | -4.5 | 44.0 | W 30 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Toledo at Buffalo | -10.5 | 44.5 | L 15 - 30 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Toledo at Northern Illinois | +3.0 | 42.5 | W 13 - 6 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Toledo vs Bowling Green | -1.5 | 47.5 | L 26 - 41 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | -10.0 | 54.5 | W 29 - 28 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/12 | Toledo vs Central Michigan | -15.0 | 52.5 | W 37 - 10 | U | Y | |
| Wed 11/20 | Toledo vs Ohio | -1.5 | 47.0 | L 7 - 24 | U | N | |
| Tue 11/26 | Toledo at Akron | -9.5 | 50.5 | L 14 - 21 | U | N | |
| Thu 12/26 | Toledo vs Pittsburgh | +6.5 | 48.5 | W 48 - 46 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
| Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Western Kentucky at Alabama | +31.0 | 60.0 | L 0 - 63 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky | -18.5 | 59.5 | W 31 - 0 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -10.5 | 53.5 | W 49 - 21 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Western Kentucky vs Toledo | +2.0 | 60.5 | W 26 - 21 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Western Kentucky at Boston College | +7.5 | 48.0 | L 20 - 21 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Western Kentucky vs UTEP | -19.0 | 55.5 | W 44 - 17 | O | Y | |
| Wed 10/16 | Western Kentucky at Sam Houston | +1.5 | 55.0 | W 31 - 14 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Wed 10/30 | Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State | -24.0 | 49.0 | W 31 - 14 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/9 | Western Kentucky at New Mexico State | -18.0 | 53.5 | W 41 - 28 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/16 | Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech | -11.5 | 52.5 | L 7 - 12 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | Western Kentucky at Liberty | +1.0 | 56.5 | L 21 - 38 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State | +0.5 | 62.5 | W 19 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Fri 12/6 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | +4.5 | 58.5 | L 12 - 52 | O | N | |
| Wed 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs James Madison | +7.5 | 50.5 | L 17 - 27 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | #111 (.11) | 41% (95) | 28.3 | 38% (120) | 2.66 (121) | 111 | 44% (46) | 227 | 3.55 (99) | #20 (.09) | 40% (43) | 23.2 | 42% (60) | 38% (35) | 3.87 (79) | 46.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| WKU | #66 (.19) | 42% (83) | 24.9 | 38% (117) | 2.78 (108) | 110 | 45% (33) | 265 | 3.83 (78) | #95 (.21) | 45% (102) | 24.6 | 48% (113) | 40% (60) | 3.66 (54) | 41.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | #111 (.11) | 41% (95) | 38% (120) | 2.66 (121) | 111 | 44% (46) | 227 | 3.55 (99) | #20 (.09) | 40% (43) | 42% (60) | 38% (35) | 3.87 (79) | 46.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||
| WKU | #66 (.19) | 42% (83) | 38% (117) | 2.78 (108) | 110 | 45% (33) | 265 | 3.83 (78) | #95 (.21) | 45% (102) | 48% (113) | 40% (60) | 3.66 (54) | 41.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Offense | 13 | 28.3 | 22.2 | 40.8% | 3.55 | 1.3 | 18 | 339 | 111 | 227 | 3.5 | 46% | 53% | 38% | 44% | 16% | .11 |
| WKU Defense | 14 | 24.6 | 13.5 | 44.7% | 3.66 | 1.5 | - | - | - | - | - | 63% | 36% | 48% | 40% | 13% | .21 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Defense | 13 | 23.2 | 21.3 | 39.8% | 3.87 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 48% | 42% | 38% | 19% | .09 |
| WKU Offense | 14 | 24.9 | 26.3 | 41.8% | 3.83 | 1.7 | 19 | 374 | 110 | 265 | 3.5 | 45% | 55% | 38% | 45% | 16% | .19 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 13 | 25:06 | 18.4 | 36% | 50% | 5.4 | 46.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 2 | 31.4 |
| Western Kentucky | 14 | 27:52 | 19.3 | 41% | 59% | 4.1 | 41.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0 | 29.7 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Offense | 13 | 46% (96) | 38% (120) | 31.5 | 111.3 | 3.5 | 12 (114) | -.04 (127) | 2.66 (121) | 57% (130) | 10% (74) | 0.83 (125) |
| WKU Defense | 14 | 63% (134) | 48% (113) | - | - | - | - | .19 (103) | 3.36 (116) | 77% (93) | 9% (88) | 0.9 (35) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Defense | 13 | 52% (83) | 42% (60) | - | - | - | - | .11 (66) | 3.01 (69) | 77% (89) | 12% (31) | 0.95 (48) |
| WKU Offense | 14 | 45% (105) | 38% (117) | 31.1 | 109.7 | 3.5 | 14 (98) | .01 (121) | 2.78 (108) | 69% (100) | 11% (87) | 0.95 (75) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Offense | 13 | 53% (41) | 44% (46) | 19.2 | 31 | 227.2 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 26 (26) | 7 (26) | .26 (67) | 1.6 (61) | 31% (65) | 27% (108) | .18 (115) | 6% (76) | 2 (68) |
| WKU Defense | 14 | 36% (1) | 40% (60) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10 (66) | .29 (99) | 1.8 (128) | 28% (116) | 29% (47) | .23 (37) | 3% (132) | 2.1 (92) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Defense | 13 | 48% (51) | 38% (35) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10 (66) | .08 (11) | 1.5 (29) | 34% (38) | 29% (39) | .22 (34) | 7% (35) | 2 (43) |
| WKU Offense | 14 | 55% (26) | 45% (33) | 22.1 | 33.5 | 264.6 | 7.9 | 12 | 28 (15) | 12 (85) | .36 (28) | 1.6 (59) | 33% (91) | 30% (91) | .29 (89) | 6% (56) | 1.9 (100) |
Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50 Western Kentucky: -2.645
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Western Kentucky: -2.2
Toledo: -9.50 Western Kentucky: -2.645
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Western Kentucky: -2.2
Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -2.645 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -2.645 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62
Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3
Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3
Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 28
Toledo 25
Total Points: 53
Western Kentucky 28
Toledo 25
Total Points: 53
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.3
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5
Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.3
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5
Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 09/06 | Toledo | 45 | Western Kentucky | 21 | Toledo | Toledo -8.5 | Toledo | 57.5 | Over |
| 2024 | 09/21 | Western Kentucky | 26 | Toledo | 21 | Western Kentucky | Toledo -2 | Western Kentucky | 60.5 | Under |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 1 Overs |
| Toledo | 1 | 1 | 1 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 2 - 0 | 2 - 0 | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 0 - 2 | 0 - 2 | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 |
(#99) Toledo Info
Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Toledo has won 3 straight
Toledo has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )
Toledo Notes
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
Toledo Highlights
Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Toledo Can Not Run the Ball (#28)
Toledo Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#41)
Toledo run game is really bad (#63)
Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Toledo has won 3 straight
Toledo has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )
Toledo Notes
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
Toledo Highlights
Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Toledo Can Not Run the Ball (#28)
Toledo Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#41)
Toledo run game is really bad (#63)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | WKU | TOL |
| OverallOver | #45 | #36 |
| OffenseOff | #50 | #84 |
| DefenseDef | #62 | #11 |
| Special TeamsST | #66 | #15 |
| PassingPass | #22 | #58 |
| RushingRush | #83 | #96 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #65 | #90 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #5 | #101 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #46 | #28 |
| TacklingTkl | #5 | #3 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #77 | #14 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #37 | #19 |
| Coverage DefCov | #73 | #16 |
Rematch from Week 4
Toledo 2.0 (60.5)
Western Kentucky won vs Toledo this year (26-21)
Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Toledo last year (26-21)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: TOL | WKU
Depth Chart: TOL | WKU
Rosters: TOL | WKU
(#92) Western Kentucky Info
Power Rating: -2.645 #92
Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Western Kentucky has won 2 straight
Western Kentucky has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Western Kentucky Notes
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
Western Kentucky commits very few Penalties (#75)
Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Western Kentucky Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#114)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky has a bad defense (#37)
Western Kentucky Does Not Stuff Runs (#80)
Western Kentucky has a bad defensive line (#94)
Power Rating: -2.645 #92
Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Western Kentucky has won 2 straight
Western Kentucky has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)
Western Kentucky Notes
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
Western Kentucky commits very few Penalties (#75)
Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Western Kentucky Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#114)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky has a bad defense (#37)
Western Kentucky Does Not Stuff Runs (#80)
Western Kentucky has a bad defensive line (#94)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Gleason | 207 | 335 | 62% | 2457 | 22 | 7 | 7.3 |
| John Alan Richter | 43 | 67 | 64% | 497 | 4 | 0 | 7.4 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Walendzak | 122 | 457 | 1 | 3.7 | 32 |
| Tucker Gleason | 88 | 330 | 6 | 3.8 | 35 |
| Jacquez Stuart | 61 | 230 | 2 | 3.8 | 26 |
| Sevaughn Clark | 62 | 209 | 0 | 3.4 | 26 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerjuan Newton | 64 | 949 | 11 | 14.8 | 64 |
| Junior Vandeross | 73 | 763 | 4 | 10.5 | 73 |
| Anthony Torres | 27 | 362 | 8 | 13.4 | 78 |
| Jacquez Stuart | 15 | 170 | 0 | 11.3 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxen Hook | 108 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Daniel Bolden | 91 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Braden Awls | 67 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Jackson Barrow | 64 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Ragin | 42 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Anthony Dunn | 25 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Darius Alexander | 35 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Martez Poynter | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Smith | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Braden Awls | 67 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Darius Alexander | 35 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden Veltkamp | 258 | 389 | 66% | 3108 | 25 | 10 | 8.0 |
| TJ Finley (Tr) | 48 | 75 | 64% | 490 | 1 | 2 | 6.5 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Young | 201 | 883 | 3 | 4.4 | 30 |
| George Hart III (Tr) | 44 | 204 | 2 | 4.6 | 30 |
| Caden Veltkamp | 113 | 150 | 7 | 1.3 | 25 |
| LT Sanders | 21 | 103 | 1 | 4.9 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisean Johnson (Tr) | 75 | 925 | 7 | 12.3 | 51 |
| Easton Messer | 55 | 793 | 4 | 14.4 | 64 |
| Dalvin Smith | 30 | 397 | 4 | 13.2 | 65 |
| K.D. Hutchinson | 26 | 392 | 3 | 15.1 | 74 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte' Mathews (Tr) | 99 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Swanson (Tr) | 63 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Hosea Wheeler | 62 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chandler Matthews (Tr) | 59 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Thomas | 54 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Sebastian Benjamin | 56 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Kylan Guidry | 45 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Kent Robinson (Tr) | 33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Johnson Jr. | 48 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Kent Robinson (Tr) | 33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Keyshawn Swanson (Tr) | 63 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |