Central Michigan at Toledo - 2024 Matchup Preview
Central Michigan logo Central Michigan Chippewas at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Tuesday, November 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -15 (52.5) (-625)  Open: -14.0
Toledo 37 - Central Michigan: 10  (Mid-American)

 
Chippewas (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (29 - 28)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (15 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -11.5  (SP+ TOL -13)
Projected Score: CMU: 21 - TOL: 33 (54)
TOL Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
CMU Travel: 145 miles
Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut-33.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 9/7 Central Michigan vs Florida International-3.551.5L 16 - 52ON
Sat 9/14 Central Michigan at Illinois+21.549.5L 9 - 30UY
Sat 9/21 Central Michigan vs Ball State-6.551.0W 37 - 34ON
Sat 9/28 Central Michigan vs San Diego State-2.547.5W 22 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Central Michigan vs Ohio+3.050.5L 25 - 27OY
Sat 10/19 Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan+3.552.5L 34 - 38ON
Sat 10/26 Central Michigan at Miami (OH)+10.548.5L 7 - 46ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Central Michigan vs Bowling Green+14.547.5L 13 - 23UY
Tue 11/12 Central Michigan at Toledo+15.052.5L 10 - 37UN
Tue 11/19 Central Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.056.0W 16 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois+16.541.5L 16 - 24UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule
Toledo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Toledo vs Duquesne-27.553.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 9/7 Toledo vs Massachusetts-17.550.5W 38 - 23ON
Sat 9/14 Toledo at Mississippi State+10.556.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/21 Toledo at Western Kentucky-2.060.5L 21 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-4.544.0W 30 - 20OY
Sat 10/12 Toledo at Buffalo-10.544.5L 15 - 30ON
Sat 10/19 Toledo at Northern Illinois+3.042.5W 13 - 6UY
Sat 10/26 Toledo vs Bowling Green-1.547.5L 26 - 41ON
Sat 11/2 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-10.054.5W 29 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Toledo vs Central Michigan-15.052.5W 37 - 10UY
Wed 11/20 Toledo vs Ohio-1.547.0L 7 - 24UN
Tue 11/26 Toledo at Akron-9.550.5L 14 - 21UN
Thu 12/26 Toledo vs Pittsburgh+6.548.5W 48 - 46OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CMU#96 (.15)39% (115)22.642% (88)3.2 (41)16934% (124)1633.82 (80)#96 (.21)40% (44)29.741% (48)39% (50)3.6 (45)60.920.4
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)28.338% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)23.242% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CMU#96 (.15)39% (115)42% (88)3.2 (41)16934% (124)1633.82 (80)#96 (.21)40% (44)41% (48)39% (50)3.6 (45)60.920.4
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CMU Offense1222.615.238.7%3.822183321691634.557%43%42%34%20%.15
TOL Defense1323.221.339.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CMU Defense1229.73539.9%3.60.4 - - - - - 52%48%41%39%18%.21
TOL Offense1328.331.240.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Central Michigan1229:2617.935%58%6.860.920.47.72.6327.1
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CMU Offense1257% (24)42% (88)37.3168.94.517 (84).22 (24)3.2 (41)80% (23)12% (108)1.09 (27)
TOL Defense1352% (83)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CMU Defense1252% (80)41% (48) - - - - .15 (82)3 (66)82% (117)13% (14)1.18 (127)
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (74)0.83 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CMU Offense1243% (110)34% (124)13.925.2163.46.511.711 (122)12 (85).04 (129)1.5 (85)34% (112)22% (132).18 (116)8% (119)2 (86)
TOL Defense1348% (51)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (11)1.5 (29)34% (38)29% (39).22 (34)7% (35)2 (43)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CMU Defense1248% (54)39% (50) - - - - - - 2 (134).28 (93)1.7 (102)36% (18)30% (60).37 (95)5% (117)2.2 (103)
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (67)1.6 (61)31% (65)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (68)

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -14.12  #111
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 17.21  #92
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 12.06  #88
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
Central Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Central Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.8  #120
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #122
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.3  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -14.12   Toledo: -3.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -15.8   Toledo: -2.5




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -3.5  #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69  #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63  #50
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5  #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.2
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Central Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 33
Central Michigan 21

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 31
Central Michigan 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 31
Central Michigan 21

Total Points: 52
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Central Michigan3Toledo21Toledo -11.5Toledo46.5Under
202411/12Toledo37Central Michigan10Toledo -15Toledo52.5Under
202311/24Central Michigan17Toledo32Toledo -12.5Toledo54.5Under
202210/01Toledo38Central Michigan17Toledo -6.5Toledo56.0Under
202110/16Central Michigan26Toledo23Toledo -5Central Michigan53.0Under
202012/12Toledo24Central Michigan23Toledo -10Central Michigan54.5Under
201911/29Central Michigan49Toledo7Central Michigan -14.5Central Michigan64.0Under
201811/23Toledo51Central Michigan13Toledo -19Toledo58.0Over
201710/14Central Michigan10Toledo30Toledo -9.5Toledo55.0Under
201610/22Toledo31Central Michigan17Toledo -10Toledo61.5Under
201511/10Central Michigan23Toledo28Toledo -6Central Michigan54.5Under
201409/27Toledo42Central Michigan28Toledo -15Central Michigan0
201309/21Central Michigan17Toledo38Toledo -14Toledo0
201210/06Toledo50Central Michigan35
201111/18Central Michigan17Toledo44
201011/26Toledo42Central Michigan31
200911/11Central Michigan56Toledo28
200810/25Toledo23Central Michigan24
200709/08Central Michigan52Toledo31
200610/07Toledo20Central Michigan42
200510/29Central Michigan21Toledo17
200410/23Toledo27Central Michigan22
200310/18Central Michigan13Toledo31
200211/09Toledo44Central Michigan17
200109/22Central Michigan28Toledo52
200009/29Toledo41Central Michigan0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo1981 Overs
Central Michigan7510 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 107 - 65 - 22 - 4
Road Teams10 - 166 - 74 - 22 - 5

(#111) CMU at (#99) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCMUTOL
Power RatePwr #111 #99
SP+SP+ #120 #80
Perf GradeGrade #108 #50
OffenseOff #129 #105
DefenseDef #55 #14
Spec TeamsST #45 #17
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #74
Central Michigan Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Drinkall (Army OL/TE, K Wes HC 14-18)
(11/20) McElwain retiring after final game vs N. Ill
(11/13) New QB Glasser bad vs Toledo, Rgame awful in L
(11/8) Off really bad, QB's unplayable, Rgame plodding
(10/27) 3 str L's, Def cooked, QBs are awful, Dogs last 4
(10/20) 45 runs/12 pass. Ran for 285, but Pass D torched
(10/15) Starting QB Labas out for season (arm)
(10/15) Backup QB Jefferson starting vs EMU
(10/13) QB's bad, Rgame OK, Run def mauled by Ohio
(10/4) Run Off/Def good, Pass Off/Def bad. OL & F7 good
(10/2) Rgame good/dominant vs poor D's. QB Labas JAG
(9/15) OL/DL played even w/ Ill. QB Labas really awful
Central Michigan Injury Report
Toledo Notes
(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report
Central Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
CMU OffTOL Def
Perf GradePerf #129 #14
SuccessSuc #115 #43
ExplosiveExp #82 #33
PPAPPA #96 #20
PowerPwr #92 #50
SP+SP+ #122 #64
Pts POPPO #80 #79
HavocHav #124 #28
Central Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
CMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #100 #15
Run SuccessRSuc #88 #60
Run ExplRExp #27 #48
PPAExp #24 #66
Run BlockR Blk #106 -
OL YdsOLY #41 #69
Stuff RateStuff #12 #81
TackleTak -  #3
Central Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
CMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #129 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #35
Pass ExplPExl #85 #29
PPAExp #129 #11
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #129 #21
F7 HavocF7 #108 #31
DB HavocDB #119 #35
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTOL OffCMU Def
Perf GradePerf #105 #55
SuccessSuc #95 #44
ExplosiveExp #83 #121
PPAPPA #111 #96
PowerPwr #121 #88
SP+SP+ #88 #115
Pts POPPO #99 #45
HavocHav #72 #45
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
Run GameRun #128 #40
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #48
Run ExplRExp #125 #127
PPAExp #127 #82
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #121 #66
Stuff RateStuff #120 #72
TackleTak -  #23
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTOL OffCMU Def
Pass GamePass #73 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #46 #50
Pass ExplPExl #61 #102
PPAExp #67 #93
Pass Block/RushP Blk #117 #28
F7 HavocF7 #74 #14
DB HavocDB #76 #117
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

CMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 38°
Rematch from Week 12
Toledo -15.0 (52.5)
Toledo won vs Central Michigan this year (37-10)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2022 (38-17)

  
CMU's OC Jim McElwain (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Labas9416059%1114777.0
Jadyn Glasser417654%439245.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marion Lukes16178854.966
BJ Harris9141834.671
Myles Bailey5129235.735
Tyler Jefferson4323315.444
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Parker29360312.444
Solomon Davis (Tr)19350218.472
Evan Boyd21302214.447
Jesse Prewitt III2318628.121

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Kwiatkowski9714011
Caleb Spann614205
Justin Whiteside586341
Elijah Rikard563100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Williams429610
Jonah Pace3411462
Michael Heldman296480
Dakota Cochran5411410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daraun McKinney532109
Donte Kent521007
Caleb Spann614205

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20733562%24572277.3
John Alan Richter436764%497407.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Connor Walendzak12245713.732
Tucker Gleason8833063.835
Jacquez Stuart6123023.826
Sevaughn Clark6220903.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton649491114.864
Junior Vandeross73763410.573
Anthony Torres27362813.478
Jacquez Stuart15170011.334

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxen Hook1082004
Daniel Bolden918320
Braden Awls673107
Jackson Barrow649202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Andre Ragin428551
Anthony Dunn257420
Darius Alexander358425
Martez Poynter257400
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith5010013
Braden Awls673107
Darius Alexander358425