Toledo at Akron - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 26th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -9.5 (50.5) (-340) Open: -8.0 | 48.5
Akron 21 - Toledo: 14 (Mid-American)

Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Toledo -10 (SP+ TOL -15.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 28 - AKR: 18 (47)
TOL Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TOL Travel: 116 miles

Zips (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (28 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
AKR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Toledo vs Duquesne	-27.5	53.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-17.5	50.5	W 38 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/14	Toledo at Mississippi State	+10.5	56.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Toledo at Western Kentucky	-2.0	60.5	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-4.5	44.0	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Toledo at Buffalo	-10.5	44.5	L 15 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/19	Toledo at Northern Illinois	+3.0	42.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-1.5	47.5	L 26 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/2	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	54.5	W 29 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-15.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Toledo vs Ohio	-1.5	47.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/26	Toledo at Akron	-9.5	50.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/26	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Akron's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Akron at Ohio State	+50.5	58.5	L 6 - 52	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Akron at Rutgers	+24.5	41.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Akron vs Colgate	-13.5	48.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	Akron at South Carolina	+25.0	42.0	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	Akron at Ohio	+8.5	46.0	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/5	Akron vs Bowling Green	+17.0	48.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Akron at Western Michigan	+9.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Akron vs Eastern Michigan	+2.5	50.5	W 25 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Akron vs Buffalo	-1.0	49.0	L 30 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/13	Akron at Northern Illinois	+14.0	43.5	L 16 - 29	O	Y
Tue 11/19	Akron at Kent State	-10.5	49.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/26	Akron vs Toledo	+9.5	50.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	30.8	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	13.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3
AKR	#129 (.04)	36% (124)	22.3	41% (86)	2.74 (123)	81	34% (121)	198	2.59 (131)	#29 (.12)	39% (37)	27.4	41% (53)	38% (22)	3.78 (68)	60.2	1.8	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AKR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	30.8	17.3	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28
AKR Defense	12	27.4	18.5	39.2%	3.78	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	38%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	13.3	16.7	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1
AKR Offense	12	22.3	27.5	36.4%	2.59	1.8	17	279	81	198	2.8	40%	58%	41%	34%	18%	.04

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31
Akron	12	29:33	16.7	33%	35%	6.9	60.2	1.8	0.9	5.2	1.6	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)
AKR Defense	12	52% (100)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.11 (49)	2.91 (38)	72% (62)	10% (77)	1.09 (110)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)
AKR Offense	12	40% (124)	41% (86)	28.8	81	2.8	12 (116)	.09 (97)	2.74 (123)	81% (16)	10% (72)	0.9 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)
AKR Defense	12	47% (34)	38% (22)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.18 (19)	1.7 (102)	35% (23)	30% (63)	.31 (67)	5% (112)	2.2 (115)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)
AKR Offense	12	58% (14)	34% (121)	21.5	35.4	197.6	5.6	9.2	10 (120)	15 (116)	.07 (127)	1.4 (128)	35% (118)	24% (120)	.13 (122)	8% (121)	2.1 (54)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50 Akron: -15.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5 Akron: -17.9

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -15.965 #121
Akron's Offense Rating: 12.44 #118
Akron's Defense Rating: 12.15 #90
2024 Talent Rating: 294.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
Akron's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Akron's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.7 #129
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #117

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 28
Akron 18

Projected Total Points: 47

Akron Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Akron's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Toledo	45	Akron	3	Toledo -21.5	Toledo	50.5	Under
2024	11/26	Akron	21	Toledo	14	Toledo -9.5	Akron	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Toledo	49	Akron	14	Toledo -28.5	Toledo	57.5	Over
2017	12/02	Toledo	45	Akron	28	Toledo -20.5	Akron	61.5	Over
2017	10/21	Toledo	48	Akron	21	Toledo -15.5	Toledo	58.5	Over
2016	11/02	Akron	17	Toledo	48	Toledo -8	Toledo	72.0	Under
2013	11/29	Akron	31	Toledo	29	Toledo -8.5	Akron	0
2012	11/20	Toledo	35	Akron	23
2008	11/05	Akron	47	Toledo	30
2006	10/28	Toledo	35	Akron	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Akron	3	3	3 Overs
Toledo	7	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 1	5 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 9	2 - 5	1 - 2	1 - 3

(#99) TOL at (#121) AKR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	AKR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#99	#121
SP+SP+	#80	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#50	#135
OffenseOff	#105	#132
DefenseDef	#14	#127
Spec TeamsST	#17	#124
TalentTal	#72	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#62

Toledo Notes(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report

Akron Notes(11/27) Upset Toledo in finale. Outgained by 100+
(11/27) Won 3 of last 5, competitive team most of season
(11/18) Run game awful vs N Ill, 50 rush, 19/52 pass
(10/27) Run game great vs EMU in W, 220 yds, 7.1 ypc
(10/13) Finley great, Rgame awful, 4 TO's in L WMU
(10/4) Pass heavy Off is awful but Run game is worse
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Zips may be CFB #2 worst
(8/16) Ohio St, Rutgers and SC? Why?
(8/16) Off was dead last LY. Not much TY
(7/30) Def has some pieces, DB's need rebuild
(7/30) HC Moorhead has 4 wins in 2 yrs. Hot Seat?
(7/30) New QB Finley (Cal) has no proven weapons into '24
Akron Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#127
SuccessSuc	#34	#37
ExplosiveExp	#39	#107
PPAPPA	#27	#29
PowerPwr	#121	#90
SP+SP+	#88	#117
Pts POPPO	#26	#68
HavocHav	#15	#110

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Run GameRun	#128	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#53
Run ExplRExp	#38	#110
PPAExp	#41	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#64
TackleTak	-	#136

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#22
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#102
PPAExp	#24	#19
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#124
F7 HavocF7	#24	#77
DB HavocDB	#35	#112

Akron on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#14
SuccessSuc	#124	#29
ExplosiveExp	#122	#38
PPAPPA	#129	#22
PowerPwr	#118	#50
SP+SP+	#129	#64
Pts POPPO	#131	#22
HavocHav	#104	#43

Akron Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#112	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#54
Run ExplRExp	#110	#64
PPAExp	#97	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#132	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#39	#77
TackleTak	-	#3

Akron Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#128	#43
PPAExp	#127	#10
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	#21
F7 HavocF7	#72	#73
DB HavocDB	#121	#16

Program Comparison
AKR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Toledo 9.5 (50.5)
Akron won vs Toledo this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Akron last year (45-3)
Akron beat Toledo in 2024 (21-14)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Sevaughn Clark	62	209	0	3.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5

AKR's OC Taylor Housewright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley (Tr)	211	387	55%	2581	16	9	6.7
Tahj Bullock	22	30	73%	200	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	110	664	2	6.0	73
Charles Kellom	85	358	1	4.2	43
Tahj Bullock	53	138	8	2.6	15
Ben Finley (Tr)	80	51	0	0.6	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Adrian Norton	43	832	7	19.3	60
Bobby Golden	31	446	1	14.4	56
Ahmarian Granger	17	308	2	18.1	72
Jacob Newell	35	254	2	7.3	29

View Akron's Full Roster

AKR's DC Tim Tibesar (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan McCoy	120	3	0	3	2
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	0	1	6
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	0	6
Antavious Fish	67	2	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Nunnally	55	12	6	4	0
Bennett Adler	34	7	3	5	1
Kabbash Richards	9	6	2	0	0
Dimitri Madden (Tr)	4	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devonte Nelson	33	1	0	7
Darrian Lewis	72	3	0	6
Paul Lewis III (Tr)	76	6	1	6