Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - 2024 Matchup Preview

Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Pittsburgh -2.5 (62.5) (105) Open: -2.0 | 63.5
Pittsburgh 28 - Cincinnati: 27

Panthers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (65 - 50)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CIN 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Pittsburgh -0 (SP+ PITT -5)
Projected Score: PITT: 30 - CIN: 30 (60)
PITT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
PITT Travel: 256 miles

Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PITT Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Pittsburgh vs Kent State	-23.5	55.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	-2.5	62.5	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	Pittsburgh vs West Virginia	+2.5	60.5	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State	-29.5	59.5	W 73 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Pittsburgh at North Carolina	-2.5	63.0	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Pittsburgh vs California	-3.5	57.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/24	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-5.0	62.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Pittsburgh at SMU	+7.0	55.5	L 25 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/9	Pittsburgh vs Virginia	-7.5	56.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Clemson	+12.0	52.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Pittsburgh at Louisville	+7.0	57.0	L 9 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/30	Pittsburgh at Boston College	+3.5	50.5	L 23 - 34	O	N
Thu 12/26	Pittsburgh vs Toledo	-6.5	48.5	L 46 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Cincinnati vs Towson	-33.5	56.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/7	Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	62.5	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Cincinnati at Miami (OH)	-3.5	47.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Cincinnati vs Houston	-4.0	47.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Cincinnati at Texas Tech	+3.0	60.0	L 41 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Cincinnati at UCF	+2.0	58.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Cincinnati vs Arizona State	-5.5	51.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Cincinnati at Colorado	+6.0	57.0	L 23 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Cincinnati vs West Virginia	-5.5	54.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/16	Cincinnati at Iowa State	+7.0	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/23	Cincinnati at Kansas State	+7.5	54.5	L 15 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Cincinnati vs TCU	+2.5	58.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT	#119 (.09)	38% (113)	33.7	41% (90)	2.86 (109)	102	35% (117)	216	3.46 (98)	#23 (.11)	39% (39)	24.8	39% (32)	41% (67)	3.41 (33)	64.4	1.8	1.3
CIN	#63 (.2)	43% (51)	30.3	46% (40)	3.36 (18)	217	41% (73)	209	3.91 (68)	#129 (.32)	41% (56)	25.6	42% (56)	41% (66)	4.03 (89)	52.6	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CIN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Offense	12	33.7	33	37.7%	3.46	1.8	16	318	102	216	3.4	45%	54%	41%	35%	19%	.09
CIN Defense	12	25.6	19.6	41.2%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	19%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Defense	12	24.8	24.6	39.4%	3.41	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	39%	41%	18%	.11
CIN Offense	12	30.3	34.4	43.4%	3.91	1.4	22	426	217	209	5	56%	43%	46%	41%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Pittsburgh	12	27:36	16.3	31%	50%	7.8	64.4	1.8	1.3	6.9	2.5	2	26.7
Cincinnati	12	31:58	22.3	42%	45%	5.7	52.6	1.4	1.1	5.7	1.5	0	25.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Offense	12	45% (100)	41% (90)	29.7	101.9	3.4	10 (124)	.06 (118)	2.86 (109)	75% (52)	11% (94)	0.89 (117)
CIN Defense	12	50% (68)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.26 (125)	2.99 (47)	75% (82)	12% (25)	1.38 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Defense	12	58% (131)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	.03 (17)	2.91 (37)	62% (16)	12% (18)	0.98 (57)
CIN Offense	12	56% (26)	46% (40)	43.1	217.1	5	14 (106)	.24 (24)	3.36 (18)	63% (124)	10% (60)	1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Offense	12	54% (34)	35% (117)	16	30	216	7.2	13.5	17 (85)	12 (85)	.16 (109)	1.7 (36)	34% (103)	24% (122)	.17 (114)	8% (123)	2.2 (26)
CIN Defense	12	49% (66)	41% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.41 (121)	1.8 (120)	35% (26)	34% (118)	.42 (115)	7% (34)	2 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Defense	12	41% (3)	41% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.27 (67)	1.7 (103)	32% (58)	30% (75)	.29 (58)	6% (85)	2.2 (111)
CIN Offense	12	43% (108)	41% (73)	18.2	30	209	7	11.5	21 (65)	11 (68)	.2 (93)	1.5 (94)	30% (35)	34% (41)	.46 (30)	5% (45)	2.1 (61)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 1.93 #56
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
2024 Talent Rating: 387.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Pittsburgh's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Pittsburgh's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 1.93 Cincinnati: 3.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 4.9 Cincinnati: -0.1

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 3.415 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 364.00 #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.6

Pittsburgh's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Pittsburgh 30
Cincinnati 30

Projected Total Points: 60

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Cincinnati	27	Pittsburgh	28	Pittsburgh -2.5	Cincinnati	62.5	Under
2023	09/09	Pittsburgh	21	Cincinnati	27	Pittsburgh -6.5	Cincinnati	44.5	Over
2012	09/06	Cincinnati	34	Pittsburgh	10
2011	11/05	Pittsburgh	23	Cincinnati	26
2010	12/04	Cincinnati	10	Pittsburgh	28
2009	12/05	Pittsburgh	44	Cincinnati	45
2008	11/22	Cincinnati	28	Pittsburgh	21
2007	10/20	Pittsburgh	24	Cincinnati	17
2006	09/08	Cincinnati	15	Pittsburgh	33
2005	10/08	Pittsburgh	38	Cincinnati	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	5	2	1 Overs
Pittsburgh	5	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 4	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#56) PITT at (#56) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PITT	CIN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#56	#56
SP+SP+	#50	#72
Perf GradeGrade	#88	#70
OffenseOff	#116	#56
DefenseDef	#41	#69
Spec TeamsST	#37	#90
TalentTal	#39	#55
Blue ChipsBC%	#48	#53

Pittsburgh Notes(11/18) Fought vs Clem, Yarnell 350 yds, Rgame awful
(11/13) 2 bad L's, QB's awful (14-35, 2 Int), Rgame meh
(11/2) Fraud, Rgame awful, Holstein garbage @ SMU
(10/24) Pass rush great, forced 5 INTs, 217 yds Off/41 Pts
(10/12) Off was awful vs Cal, 1-12 3rd down, lucky to W
(10/4) Pass good, Run great. Top 10 OL yds, success
(9/12) Pitt is top 5 plays per minute through 2 games
(9/8) Holstein great vs Cin in comeback. Rgame good
(9/1) Holstein QB, Off torched Kent, balanced. Def big ?
(8/19) Off was near worst in P4 & OL worst in P4 LY
(8/19) Bowl poss only if Off improves vs. light sched
(7/30) New OC Bell interesting, WC OC had top 10 off
Pittsburgh Injury Report

Cincinnati Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, down 27-3 at H, Def killed by K St
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge
(7/30) All B12 DT Corleone out indefintely (7/3)
Cincinnati Injury Report

Pittsburgh on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	CIN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#69
SuccessSuc	#113	#56
ExplosiveExp	#66	#132
PPAPPA	#119	#129
PowerPwr	#78	#85
SP+SP+	#54	#57
Pts POPPO	#98	#89
HavocHav	#114	#20

Pittsburgh Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#83	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#56
Run ExplRExp	#117	#133
PPAExp	#118	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#5
TackleTak	-	#69

Pittsburgh Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#120
PPAExp	#109	#121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#111
F7 HavocF7	#94	#25
DB HavocDB	#123	#34

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	PITT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#41
SuccessSuc	#51	#39
ExplosiveExp	#85	#74
PPAPPA	#63	#23
PowerPwr	#44	#45
SP+SP+	#79	#64
Pts POPPO	#68	#33
HavocHav	#58	#36

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#34	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#32
Run ExplRExp	#26	#57
PPAExp	#24	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#41	#16
TackleTak	-	#33

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#103
PPAExp	#93	#67
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#46
F7 HavocF7	#60	#18
DB HavocDB	#45	#85

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

PITT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Pittsburgh 2.5 (62.5)
Pittsburgh won at Cincinnati this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in 2024 (28-27)
Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (27-21)

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Eli Holstein (Tr)	179	290	62%	2225	17	7	7.7
Nate Yarnell	98	167	59%	1056	10	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)	184	966	5	5.3	72
Eli Holstein (Tr)	81	328	3	4.0	49
Daniel Carter	22	208	4	9.5	43
Julian Dugger	21	88	1	4.2	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Konata Mumpfield	52	813	5	15.6	46
Desmond Reid (Tr)	52	579	4	11.1	72
Kenny Johnson	46	537	3	11.7	46
Raphael Williams	36	419	6	11.6	35

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Brandon George	80	6	2	7	0
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Jimmy Scott	30	13	6	6	2
Nate Matlack (Tr)	23	7	5	8	3
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9
Rashad Battle	35	1	0	1	8
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	249	389	64%	2813	18	7	7.2
Brady Lichtenberg	3	5	60%	25	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	204	1153	4	5.7	46
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	106	445	9	4.2	41
Evan Pryor (Tr)	56	418	6	7.5	65
Chance Williams (Tr)	15	67	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson	58	735	4	12.7	42
Joe Royer (Tr)	51	532	3	10.4	38
Tony Johnson (Tr)	49	452	6	9.2	23
Jamoi Mayes	29	349	1	12.0	52

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Jake Golday (Tr)	57	7	1	0	2
Antwan Peek Jr.	54	1	0	0	1
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Eric Phillips	19	5	3	6	0
Dontay Corleone	26	5	3	4	0
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Young	35	1	5
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	44	3	5
Josh Minkins (Tr)	45	2	4