Boise State at Hawai'i - 2024 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (11:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -21 (60.0) (-1650) Open: -21.0
Boise State 28 - Hawai'i: 7 (Mountain West)

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (34 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 18.8 MPH
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -17.5 (SP+ BSU -21)
Projected Score: BSU: 38 - HAW: 20 (58)
BSU Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
BSU Travel: 2832 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Hawai'i vs Delaware State	-38.5	57.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 8/31	Hawai'i vs UCLA	+13.5	55.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Hawai'i at Sam Houston	+3.5	48.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/21	Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa	-10.0	46.0	W 36 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+1.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/12	Hawai'i vs Boise State	+21.0	60.0	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Hawai'i at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/26	Hawai'i vs Nevada	-2.5	42.0	W 34 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+12.0	45.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+12.0	51.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Hawai'i at Utah State	-2.5	62.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	+6.5	61.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)	37.3	49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)	22.6	39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)	22.3	46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)	26	45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	37.3	34.3	48.3%	4.83	0.6	22	437	234	204	6.5	55%	44%	49%	48%	12%	.36
HAW Defense	12	26	19.6	42%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	45%	40%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	22.6	24.5	38.2%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	39%	37%	20%	.16
HAW Offense	12	22.3	27.1	44.2%	3.81	1.6	21	367	99	268	3.6	36%	64%	46%	44%	19%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	29:25	21.6	49%	71%	4.5	39.8	0.6	1.1	7.4	3.6	3	30.1
Hawai'i	12	30:19	20.8	37%	55%	8	70.3	1.6	0.9	5.7	2.3	1	25.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	55% (31)	49% (17)	36.2	233.5	6.5	42 (3)	.32 (6)	3.22 (39)	86% (3)	7% (10)	1.22 (5)
HAW Defense	12	50% (57)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (90)	3.27 (108)	79% (103)	10% (74)	0.97 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	43% (3)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.13 (72)	2.8 (34)	62% (12)	15% (3)	1.1 (113)
HAW Offense	12	36% (134)	46% (45)	27.8	99	3.6	7 (131)	.13 (68)	3.29 (26)	80% (23)	11% (88)	0.83 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44% (103)	48% (12)	17	27.1	203.9	7.5	12	22 (46)	4 (1)	.41 (12)	1.5 (119)	29% (23)	35% (28)	.37 (55)	6% (58)	1.9 (111)
HAW Defense	12	50% (79)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.22 (58)	1.4 (19)	31% (82)	30% (63)	.31 (72)	6% (73)	1.8 (13)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	57% (133)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.18 (42)	1.7 (96)	36% (10)	30% (62)	.41 (105)	6% (83)	2.3 (124)
HAW Offense	12	64% (1)	44% (50)	23.8	40.1	268.2	6.7	11.3	25 (31)	15 (123)	.21 (92)	1.4 (130)	32% (80)	33% (49)	.31 (81)	8% (127)	2 (94)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.35 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 14.35 Hawai'i: -5.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 10.1 Hawai'i: -10.9

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.52 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 38
Hawai'i 20

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 29
Hawai'i 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 30
Hawai'i 24

Total Points: 54

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Hawai'i	7	Boise State	28	Boise State -21	NA	60.0	Under
2020	11/21	Hawai'i	32	Boise State	40	Boise State -13.5	Hawai'i	55.5	Over
2019	10/12	Boise State	59	Hawai'i	37	Boise State -11.5	Boise State	60.5	Over
2019	12/07	Boise State	31	Hawai'i	10	Boise State -14	Boise State	65.0	Under
2016	11/12	Hawai'i	16	Boise State	52	Boise State -16.5	Boise State	62.5	Over
2015	10/03	Boise State	55	Hawai'i	0	Boise State -23.5	Boise State	57.0	Under
2012	11/10	Hawai'i	14	Boise State	49
2010	11/06	Boise State	42	Hawai'i	7
2009	10/24	Hawai'i	9	Boise State	54
2008	10/17	Boise State	27	Hawai'i	7
2007	11/23	Hawai'i	39	Boise State	27
2006	09/23	Boise State	41	Hawai'i	34
2005	10/02	Hawai'i	41	Boise State	44
2004	10/29	Boise State	69	Hawai'i	3
2003	12/06	Hawai'i	28	Boise State	45
2002	10/05	Boise State	58	Hawai'i	31
2001	11/10	Hawai'i	21	Boise State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	1	1	3 Overs
Boise State	16	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 8	4 - 1	3 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 9	1 - 4	1 - 1	0 - 3

(#16) BSU at (#84) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	HAW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#16	#84
SP+SP+	#29	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#15	#92
OffenseOff	#6	#107
DefenseDef	#40	#68
Spec TeamsST	#62	#91
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Boise State Notes(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report

Hawai'i Notes(11/18) Killed by Utah St, QB's 5 INTs? Rgame awful
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	HAW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#6	#68
SuccessSuc	#12	#71
ExplosiveExp	#37	#35
PPAPPA	#3	#81
PowerPwr	#10	#68
SP+SP+	#17	#89
Pts POPPO	#4	#103
HavocHav	#20	#74

Boise State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#1	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#85
Run ExplRExp	#5	#62
PPAExp	#6	#90
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#58	#96
TackleTak	-	#59

Boise State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#19
PPAExp	#12	#58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#106
F7 HavocF7	#10	#74
DB HavocDB	#58	#73

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#40
SuccessSuc	#52	#27
ExplosiveExp	#120	#119
PPAPPA	#82	#59
PowerPwr	#45	#22
SP+SP+	#108	#50
Pts POPPO	#81	#24
HavocHav	#117	#7

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#87	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#33
Run ExplRExp	#124	#113
PPAExp	#68	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#26	#34
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#21
TackleTak	-	#134

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#96
PPAExp	#92	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#52
F7 HavocF7	#88	#3
DB HavocDB	#127	#83

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79° - Wind: 19 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Boise State 21.0 (60.0)
Boise State won at Hawai'i this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Hawai'i last year (28-7)

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	374	2601	29	7.0	77
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Ahmed Hassanein	48	16	10	3	0
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	233	404	58%	2591	19	13	6.4
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Brayden Schager	135	267	6	2.0	46
Tylan Hines	39	162	0	4.2	15
Cam Barfield (Tr)	33	158	0	4.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)	16	402	4	25.1	74
Jonah Panoke	33	387	3	11.7	49

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1
Malachi Finau	19	4	3	1
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cameron Stone	38	3	8
Caleb Brown	24	2	7
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5