Hawai'i at Sam Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Sam Houston Bearkats

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -3.5 (48.5) (-170) Open: -3.0 | 52.5
Sam Houston 31 - Hawai'i: 13

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (16 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: Sam Houston -3.5 (SP+ SHSU -4)
Projected Score: HAW: 22 - SHSU: 26 (48)
SHSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 3875 miles, 4 hrs behind

Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Hawai'i vs Delaware State	-38.5	57.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 8/31	Hawai'i vs UCLA	+13.5	55.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Hawai'i at Sam Houston	+3.5	48.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/21	Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa	-10.0	46.0	W 36 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+1.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/12	Hawai'i vs Boise State	+21.0	60.0	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Hawai'i at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/26	Hawai'i vs Nevada	-2.5	42.0	W 34 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+12.0	45.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+12.0	51.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Hawai'i at Utah State	-2.5	62.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	+6.5	61.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Sam Houston at Rice	+9.5	49.0	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Sam Houston at UCF	+21.5	53.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/14	Sam Houston vs Hawai'i	-3.5	48.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Sam Houston vs New Mexico State	-15.5	44.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Sam Houston vs Texas State	+11.0	55.0	W 40 - 39	O	Y
Thu 10/3	Sam Houston at UTEP	-10.0	49.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16	Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky	-1.5	55.0	L 14 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/22	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-5.0	47.0	W 10 - 7	U	N
Tue 10/29	Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5	45.5	W 9 - 3	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Sam Houston at Kennesaw State	-21.0	42.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/23	Sam Houston at Jacksonville State	+5.5	57.5	L 11 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/29	Sam Houston vs Liberty	+2.5	47.5	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern	+3.5	48.0	W 31 - 26	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)	22.3	46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)	26	45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)	23.8	41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)	20.5	47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)		41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)		47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	12	22.3	15.6	44.2%	3.81	1.6	21	367	99	268	3.6	36%	64%	46%	44%	19%	.17
SHSU Defense	13	20.5	15.2	41.8%	3.84	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	37%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	12	26	35	42%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	45%	40%	16%	.19
SHSU Offense	13	23.8	21	39.3%	2.97	1.2	19	349	180	168	4.3	57%	43%	41%	38%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	12	30:19	20.8	37%	55%	8	70.3	1.6	0.9	5.7	2.3	1	25.6
Sam Houston	13	32:10	18.8	39%	67%	4.6	37.9	1.2	2.1	5.4	2.2	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	12	36% (134)	46% (45)	27.8	99	3.6	7 (131)	.13 (68)	3.29 (26)	80% (23)	11% (88)	0.83 (124)
SHSU Defense	13	51% (74)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	3.37 (119)	75% (75)	10% (56)	0.83 (9)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	12	50% (57)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (90)	3.27 (108)	79% (103)	10% (74)	0.97 (62)
SHSU Offense	13	57% (25)	41% (100)	42.5	180.4	4.3	21 (59)	.1 (83)	3.18 (44)	68% (104)	10% (69)	0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	12	64% (1)	44% (50)	23.8	40.1	268.2	6.7	11.3	25 (31)	15 (123)	.21 (92)	1.4 (130)	32% (80)	33% (49)	.31 (81)	8% (127)	2 (94)
SHSU Defense	13	48% (60)	37% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.06 (6)	1.4 (9)	32% (57)	25% (11)	.21 (32)	6% (58)	1.8 (12)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	12	50% (79)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.22 (58)	1.4 (19)	31% (82)	30% (63)	.31 (72)	6% (73)	1.8 (13)
SHSU Offense	13	43% (113)	38% (105)	16.7	26.8	168.2	6.3	10.1	15 (98)	9 (48)	.13 (114)	1.5 (106)	30% (51)	24% (126)	.13 (130)	5% (47)	2 (95)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.14 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -5.14 Sam Houston: -4.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.9 Sam Houston: -6.9

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -4.36 #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.6
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Sam Houston 26
Hawai'i 22

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Sam Houston 29
Hawai'i 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Sam Houston 27
Hawai'i 18

Total Points: 45

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Hawai'i	37	Sam Houston	20	Hawai'i -7.0	Hawai'i	47.5	Over
2024	09/14	Sam Houston	31	Hawai'i	13	Sam Houston -3.5	Sam Houston	48.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	1	1	1 Overs
Hawai'i	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#84) HAW at (#88) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	SHSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#88
SP+SP+	#107	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#95
OffenseOff	#107	#104
DefenseDef	#68	#75
Spec TeamsST	#91	#105
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Hawai'i Notes(11/18) Killed by Utah St, QB's 5 INTs? Rgame awful
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i Injury Report

Sam Houston Notes(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?
(7/30) Def returns but new DC. Roster most CUSA exp'd
Sam Houston Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SHSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#75
SuccessSuc	#52	#70
ExplosiveExp	#120	#3
PPAPPA	#82	#31
PowerPwr	#45	#54
SP+SP+	#108	#46
Pts POPPO	#81	#75
HavocHav	#117	#58

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#87	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#105
Run ExplRExp	#124	#9
PPAExp	#68	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#26	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#129
TackleTak	-	#48

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#9
PPAExp	#92	#6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#34
F7 HavocF7	#88	#56
DB HavocDB	#127	#58

Sam Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#68
SuccessSuc	#107	#71
ExplosiveExp	#127	#35
PPAPPA	#115	#81
PowerPwr	#110	#68
SP+SP+	#117	#89
Pts POPPO	#129	#103
HavocHav	#53	#74

Sam Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#103	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#100	#85
Run ExplRExp	#98	#62
PPAExp	#83	#90
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#44	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#34	#96
TackleTak	-	#59

Sam Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#97	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#106	#19
PPAExp	#114	#58
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#71	#106
F7 HavocF7	#69	#74
DB HavocDB	#47	#73

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 89°

Rematch from Week 3
Sam Houston -3.5 (48.5)
Sam Houston won vs Hawai'i this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Hawai'i last year (31-13)

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	233	404	58%	2591	19	13	6.4
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Brayden Schager	135	267	6	2.0	46
Tylan Hines	39	162	0	4.2	15
Cam Barfield (Tr)	33	158	0	4.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)	16	402	4	25.1	74
Jonah Panoke	33	387	3	11.7	49

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1
Malachi Finau	19	4	3	1
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cameron Stone	38	3	8
Caleb Brown	24	2	7
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	152	253	60%	1598	11	8	6.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)	40	65	62%	310	2	1	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevyon Ducker	148	719	7	4.9	86
Hunter Watson	152	623	7	4.1	46
DJ McKinney	95	479	3	5.0	59
Jase Bauer (Tr)	45	195	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Simeon Evans	43	474	5	11.0	64
Qua'Vez Humphreys	18	362	4	20.1	67
Noah Smith	35	285	0	8.1	22
Ife Adeyi	26	238	1	9.2	32

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
Kavian Gaither	84	8	0	5	2
Trey Fields	72	6	1	2	1
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Murray	34	12	6	2	0
Briceon Hayes	26	7	5	3	2
Isaiah Nixon	19	6	4	5	0
Richard Outland	15	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
David Fisher	33	2	0	0	6