Hawai'i at Utah State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Utah State Aggies

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (3:00 PM EST)
Hawai'i -2.5 (62.0) (-130) Open: -3.0
Utah State 55 - Hawai'i: 10 (Mountain West)

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (16 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HAW is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -0.5 (SP+ USU -1)
Projected Score: HAW: 32 - USU: 31 (63)
HAW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HAW Travel: 3010 miles, 3 hrs behind

Aggies (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (39 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Hawai'i vs Delaware State	-38.5	57.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 8/31	Hawai'i vs UCLA	+13.5	55.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Hawai'i at Sam Houston	+3.5	48.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/21	Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa	-10.0	46.0	W 36 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+1.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/12	Hawai'i vs Boise State	+21.0	60.0	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Hawai'i at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/26	Hawai'i vs Nevada	-2.5	42.0	W 34 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+12.0	45.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+12.0	51.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Hawai'i at Utah State	-2.5	62.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	+6.5	61.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Utah State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Utah State vs Robert Morris	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Utah State at USC	+30.5	62.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/14	Utah State vs Utah	+20.5	43.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Utah State at Temple	-6.5	53.5	L 29 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Utah State at Boise State	+28.0	66.5	L 30 - 62	O	N
Fri 10/11	Utah State vs UNLV	+19.0	67.5	L 34 - 50	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Utah State vs New Mexico	+1.0	78.5	L 45 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/26	Utah State at Wyoming	-2.5	57.0	W 27 - 25	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Utah State at Washington State	+20.5	69.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Utah State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	62.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Utah State vs San Diego State	-5.0	60.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Utah State at Colorado State	+5.5	56.5	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)	22.3	46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)	26	45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	31.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	37.8	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	12	22.3	15.6	44.2%	3.81	1.6	21	367	99	268	3.6	36%	64%	46%	44%	19%	.17
USU Defense	12	37.8	30.3	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	12	26	35	42%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	45%	40%	16%	.19
USU Offense	12	31.9	38.7	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	12	30:19	20.8	37%	55%	8	70.3	1.6	0.9	5.7	2.3	1	25.6
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	12	36% (134)	46% (45)	27.8	99	3.6	7 (131)	.13 (68)	3.29 (26)	80% (23)	11% (88)	0.83 (124)
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	12	50% (57)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (90)	3.27 (108)	79% (103)	10% (74)	0.97 (62)
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	12	64% (1)	44% (50)	23.8	40.1	268.2	6.7	11.3	25 (31)	15 (123)	.21 (92)	1.4 (130)	32% (80)	33% (49)	.31 (81)	8% (127)	2 (94)
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	12	50% (79)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.22 (58)	1.4 (19)	31% (82)	30% (63)	.31 (72)	6% (73)	1.8 (13)
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.14 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -5.14 Utah State: -8.715

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.9 Utah State: -10.4

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -8.715 #105
Utah State's Offense Rating: 24.87 #19
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.16 #123
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Utah State's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Utah State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.4 #106
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #45
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.6
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 32
Utah State 31

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 33
Utah State 33

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Utah State 33
Hawai'i 27

Total Points: 60

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Utah State's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Hawai'i	44	Utah State	26	Utah State -1.5	Hawai'i	57.5	Over
2024	11/16	Utah State	55	Hawai'i	10	Hawai'i -2.5	Utah State	62.0	Over
2022	11/12	Hawai'i	34	Utah State	41	Utah State -10	Hawai'i	55.0	Over
2021	10/30	Utah State	51	Hawai'i	31	Utah State -3.5	Utah State	66.0	Over
2018	11/03	Hawai'i	17	Utah State	56	Utah State -19	Utah State	71.0	Over
2017	11/18	Utah State	38	Hawai'i	0	Utah State -10.5	Utah State	56.5	Under
2014	11/01	Hawai'i	14	Utah State	35	Utah State -3	Utah State	41.5	Over
2013	11/02	Utah State	47	Hawai'i	10	Utah State -21	Utah State	0
2011	11/06	Hawai'i	31	Utah State	35
2010	10/23	Utah State	7	Hawai'i	45
2009	11/07	Hawai'i	49	Utah State	36
2008	11/01	Utah State	30	Hawai'i	14
2007	10/07	Hawai'i	52	Utah State	37
2006	11/04	Utah State	10	Hawai'i	63
2005	11/12	Hawai'i	50	Utah State	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	9	6	6 Overs
Hawai'i	6	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	6 - 2	3 - 0	3 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 9	2 - 6	2 - 3	0 - 3

(#84) HAW at (#105) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#105
SP+SP+	#107	#106
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#116
OffenseOff	#107	#102
DefenseDef	#68	#124
Spec TeamsST	#91	#34
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#53

Hawai'i Notes(11/18) Killed by Utah St, QB's 5 INTs? Rgame awful
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i Injury Report

Utah State Notes(12/6) Hired HC Mendenhall, last at NM for 1 yr
(11/29) Rgame great vs CSU, 296/6.0. Pass D torched in L
(11/18) 5 INT's vs Hawaii, Rgame great (321, 7.6 ypc)
(11/9) Top WR Jalen Royals out for season (foot)
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#130) into week 9
(10/20) Petras 360 yds (NM), forced 4 TOs in near upset
(10/16) Monitor for quit watch. Def/Int Coach/Bad vibes
(10/11) Def is likely worst in CFB. #130+ all metrics
(10/10) Def is awful. Worst 2nd quarter D (nearly 21 ppg!)
(10/10) QB now Petras, hasn't been as awful as expected
(8/4) Portal lost #2 WR Davis (Ole Miss) this late??
(7/31) HC fired, Def awful, where does this go?
Utah State Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#124
SuccessSuc	#52	#122
ExplosiveExp	#120	#42
PPAPPA	#82	#119
PowerPwr	#45	#123
SP+SP+	#108	#129
Pts POPPO	#81	#122
HavocHav	#117	#81

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#87	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#112
Run ExplRExp	#124	#56
PPAExp	#68	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#26	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#95
TackleTak	-	#107

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#30
PPAExp	#92	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#94
F7 HavocF7	#88	#70
DB HavocDB	#127	#99

Utah State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#102	#68
SuccessSuc	#31	#71
ExplosiveExp	#59	#35
PPAPPA	#34	#81
PowerPwr	#19	#68
SP+SP+	#45	#89
Pts POPPO	#24	#103
HavocHav	#81	#74

Utah State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#22	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#85
Run ExplRExp	#18	#62
PPAExp	#13	#90
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#96
TackleTak	-	#59

Utah State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#19
PPAExp	#69	#58
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#106
F7 HavocF7	#39	#74
DB HavocDB	#124	#73

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 37° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Hawai'i 2.5 (62.0)
Utah State won vs Hawai'i this year (55-10)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Hawai'i last year (55-10)
Utah State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (41-34)

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	233	404	58%	2591	19	13	6.4
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Brayden Schager	135	267	6	2.0	46
Tylan Hines	39	162	0	4.2	15
Cam Barfield (Tr)	33	158	0	4.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)	16	402	4	25.1	74
Jonah Panoke	33	387	3	11.7	49

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1
Malachi Finau	19	4	3	1
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cameron Stone	38	3	8
Caleb Brown	24	2	7
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Spencer Petras (Tr)	214	327	65%	2315	17	11	7.1
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	77	126	61%	856	12	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahsul Faison	198	1109	8	5.6	37
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	68	530	5	7.8	63
Herschel Turner	79	405	4	5.1	43
Derrick Jameson	15	140	2	9.3	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	55	834	6	15.2	75
Kyrese Rowan	44	526	3	12.0	57
Otto Tia	44	434	7	9.9	51
Jack Hestera (Tr)	24	340	4	14.2	32

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Ike Larsen	80	2	0	0	9
Jon Ross Maye	57	4	0	3	1
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cian Slone	49	10	8	5	0
Bronson Olevao	23	4	4	3	0
Lawrence Falatea (Tr)	28	6	3	3	0
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Ike Larsen	80	2	9
Avante Dickerson	19	2	3
D.J. Graham	42	3	2