Boise State at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (10:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -17.5 (60.5) (-1200) Open: -19.5 | 61.5
Oregon 37 - Boise State: 34

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BSU 2nd straight Road Game
ORE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon -16 (SP+ ORE -16)
Projected Score: BSU: 20 - ORE: 36 (57)
ORE Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
BSU Travel: 344 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	29.9	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	24.1	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4
ORE	#2 (.49)	57% (1)	36.9	57% (2)	3.69 (4)	171	57% (1)	318	5.11 (1)	#19 (.1)	38% (30)	17.9	39% (35)	39% (27)	3.33 (24)	59.1	0.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3
ORE Defense	14	17.9	16.8	38.4%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	39%	39%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22
ORE Offense	14	36.9	43.1	56.9%	5.11	0.5	24	490	171	318	5.9	44%	56%	57%	57%	9%	.49

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4
Oregon	14	28:31	24.4	51%	74%	6.5	59.1	0.5	1.1	4.8	2.4	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)
ORE Defense	14	39% (2)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	.08 (32)	3.08 (60)	55% (6)	9% (96)	0.97 (54)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)
ORE Offense	14	44% (107)	57% (2)	29.1	171.4	5.9	32 (10)	.37 (2)	3.69 (4)	78% (32)	6% (3)	1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)
ORE Defense	14	59% (132)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.16 (16)	1.5 (45)	32% (70)	30% (60)	.33 (78)	8% (13)	2 (45)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)
ORE Offense	14	56% (22)	57% (1)	26	33.7	318.3	9.4	12.2	44 (1)	5 (6)	.59 (3)	1.5 (112)	24% (3)	43% (3)	.73 (2)	3% (4)	2 (70)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.35 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 318.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 14.35 Oregon: 28.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 10.1 Oregon: 26.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.2 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 619.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 36
Boise State 20

Projected Total Points: 57

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Oregon	37	Boise State	34	Oregon -17.5	Boise State	60.5	Over
2017	12/16	Oregon	28	Boise State	38	Oregon -7	Boise State	63.0	Over
2009	09/03	Boise State	19	Oregon	8
2008	09/20	Oregon	32	Boise State	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	1	0	2 Overs
Boise State	3	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#16) BSU at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#16	#2
SP+SP+	#29	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#15	#4
OffenseOff	#6	#9
DefenseDef	#40	#4
Spec TeamsST	#62	#26
TalentTal	#68	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#8

Boise State Notes(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#6	#4
SuccessSuc	#21	#30
ExplosiveExp	#32	#78
PPAPPA	#19	#19
PowerPwr	#10	#19
SP+SP+	#17	#14
Pts POPPO	#38	#24
HavocHav	#40	#52

Boise State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#1	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#35
Run ExplRExp	#31	#54
PPAExp	#6	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#75
TackleTak	-	#8

Boise State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#12	#45
PPAExp	#29	#16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#7
F7 HavocF7	#34	#96
DB HavocDB	#66	#13

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#9	#40
SuccessSuc	#1	#59
ExplosiveExp	#67	#111
PPAPPA	#2	#90
PowerPwr	#4	#22
SP+SP+	#2	#50
Pts POPPO	#1	#90
HavocHav	#2	#45

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#11	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#79
Run ExplRExp	#37	#108
PPAExp	#2	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#48
TackleTak	-	#134

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#91
PPAExp	#3	#72
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#52
F7 HavocF7	#3	#34
DB HavocDB	#4	#72

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Oregon -17.5 (60.5)
Oregon won vs Boise State this year (37-34)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Boise State in 2024 (37-34)

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	374	2601	29	7.0	77
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Ahmed Hassanein	48	16	10	3	0
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5