Nevada at Boise State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Boise State -23.5 (60.5) (-4000) Open: -25.0 | 60.5
Boise State 28 - Nevada: 21 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BSU 2nd straight Home Game
NEV is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -29 (SP+ BSU -25)
Projected Score: NEV: 14 - BSU: 43 (56)
BSU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
NEV Travel: 337 miles, 1 hrs behind

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.6	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	27.5	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	29.9	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	24.1	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04
BSU Defense	14	24.1	22.3	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24
BSU Offense	14	29.9	41.3	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37 Boise State: 14.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2 Boise State: 10.1

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.725 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 43
Nevada 14

Projected Total Points: 56

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/24	Nevada	3	Boise State	24	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	51.5	Under
2024	11/09	Boise State	28	Nevada	21	Boise State -23.5	Nevada	60.5	Under
2022	11/12	Nevada	3	Boise State	41	Boise State -21	Boise State	47.0	Under
2021	10/02	Boise State	31	Nevada	41	Boise State -3.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2018	10/13	Nevada	27	Boise State	31	Boise State -15	Nevada	59.5	Under
2017	11/04	Boise State	41	Nevada	14	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	63.0	Under
2014	10/04	Nevada	46	Boise State	51	Boise State -1.5	Boise State	0
2013	10/19	Boise State	34	Nevada	17	Boise State -21.5	Nevada	0
2012	12/01	Nevada	21	Boise State	27
2011	10/01	Boise State	30	Nevada	10
2010	11/26	Nevada	34	Boise State	31
2009	11/27	Boise State	44	Nevada	33
2008	11/22	Nevada	34	Boise State	41
2007	10/14	Boise State	69	Nevada	67
2006	11/25	Nevada	7	Boise State	38
2005	10/29	Boise State	49	Nevada	14
2004	11/27	Nevada	21	Boise State	58
2003	11/29	Boise State	56	Nevada	3
2001	10/27	Boise State	49	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	17	4	1 Overs
Nevada	2	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	9 - 10	6 - 2	3 - 1	3 - 1

(#109) NEV at (#16) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	BSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#109	#16
SP+SP+	#117	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#94	#15
OffenseOff	#39	#6
DefenseDef	#119	#40
Spec TeamsST	#133	#62
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#74

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

Boise State Notes(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#40
SuccessSuc	#129	#59
ExplosiveExp	#110	#111
PPAPPA	#128	#90
PowerPwr	#46	#22
SP+SP+	#106	#50
Pts POPPO	#132	#90
HavocHav	#131	#45

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#79
Run ExplRExp	#78	#108
PPAExp	#107	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#48
TackleTak	-	#134

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#91
PPAExp	#132	#72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#52
F7 HavocF7	#133	#34
DB HavocDB	#89	#72

Boise State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#6	#119
SuccessSuc	#21	#122
ExplosiveExp	#32	#100
PPAPPA	#19	#101
PowerPwr	#10	#108
SP+SP+	#17	#113
Pts POPPO	#38	#71
HavocHav	#40	#112

Boise State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#1	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#110
Run ExplRExp	#31	#104
PPAExp	#6	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#90
TackleTak	-	#131

Boise State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#12	#83
PPAExp	#29	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#58
F7 HavocF7	#34	#99
DB HavocDB	#66	#99

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 45°

Rematch from Week 11
Boise State -23.5 (60.5)
Boise State won vs Nevada this year (28-21)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Nevada last year (24-3)
Boise State beat Nevada in 2024 (28-21)

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	374	2601	29	7.0	77
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Ahmed Hassanein	48	16	10	3	0
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6