Penn State vs Boise State Game Matchup

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Boise State Broncos

Tuesday, December 31st 2024 (7:30 PM EST)
Penn State -11.5 (54.5) (-500) Open: -10.5 | 53.5
Penn State 31 - Boise State: 14 (CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)

Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Penn State -12 (SP+ PSU -14.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 34 - BSU: 22 (55)
PSU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
PSU Travel: 1954 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
PSU Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Penn State at West Virginia	-7.5	48.0	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Penn State vs Bowling Green	-35.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Penn State vs Kent State	-49.0	58.0	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Penn State vs Illinois	-19.5	48.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/5	Penn State vs UCLA	-30.0	48.0	W 27 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/12	Penn State at USC	-3.5	51.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Penn State at Wisconsin	-6.5	47.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	Penn State vs Washington	-13.5	48.0	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Penn State at Purdue	-30.0	51.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Penn State at Minnesota	-11.0	45.0	W 26 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/30	Penn State vs Maryland	-26.5	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Penn State vs Oregon	+3.5	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/21	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	33.1	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	16.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	37.3	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	22.6	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	13	33.1	34	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25
BSU Defense	14	22.6	19.7	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	13	16.5	18	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04
BSU Offense	14	37.3	43.1	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26 Boise State: 12.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6 Boise State: 10.1

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 12.225 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 626.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 34
Boise State 22

Projected Total Points: 55

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/31	Boise State	14	Penn State	31	Penn State	Penn State -11.5	Penn State	54.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	0	0	0 Overs
Penn State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Penn State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Semifinal	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14
2024	CFP 1st Round	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10
2023	Peach Bowl	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38
2022	Rose Bowl	Penn State vs Utah	-1.5	55.5	W 35 - 21
2021	Outback Bowl	Penn State vs Arkansas	+3.5	51.0	L 10 - 24
2019	Cotton Bowl	Penn State vs Memphis	-7.0	59.5	W 53 - 39
2018	Citrus Bowl	Penn State vs Kentucky	-4.5	47.5	L 24 - 27

Boise State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31
2023	La Bowl	Boise State vs UCLA	+6.5	46.0	L 22 - 35
2022	Frisco Bowl	Boise State vs North Texas	-12.0	63.0	W 35 - 32
2019	Vegas Bowl	Boise State vs Washington	+4.0	48.0	L 7 - 38

(#6) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4
Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.69 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Penn State has played in 3 CFP Playoff Games (2 - 1)
Penn State has played in 7 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 3)
Penn State has played in 20 Bowls since 2000 (10 - 10)

Penn State Ratings Matchup Boise State

Power #6

#16

Off #2

#10

Def #7

#22

Talent #11

#69

SP+ #5

#29

SP+ Off #9

#17

SP+ Def #4

#50

Rematch from Week 1
Penn State 11.5 (54.5)
Penn State won at Boise State this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Boise State last year (31-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in State Farm Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 59°

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | BSU
Depth Chart: PSU | BSU
Rosters: PSU | BSU

(#16) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.225 #16
Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50
Talent Rating: 626.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Boise State has played in 1 CFP Playoff Games (0 - 1)
Boise State has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (1 - 3)
Boise State has played in 21 Bowls since 2000 (12 - 9)

Boise State Notes
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter

Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	262	394	67%	3327	24	8	8.4
Beau Pribula	26	35	74%	275	5	1	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	220	1108	8	5.0	32
Nicholas Singleton	172	1099	12	6.4	58
Drew Allar	96	302	6	3.1	22
Beau Pribula	38	242	4	6.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harrison Wallace III	47	732	4	15.6	50
Omari Evans	20	403	5	20.2	59
Nicholas Singleton	41	375	5	9.1	27
Liam Clifford	18	286	1	15.9	57

View Penn State's Full Roster

Penn State's DC Tom Allen

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakee Wheatley	86	3	1	0	4
Tony Rojas	56	7	2	5	4
Zane Durant	42	10	3	4	1
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dani Dennis-Sutton	40	13	9	9	3
Zane Durant	42	10	3	4	1
Tony Rojas	56	7	2	5	4
Jordan Mayer (Tr)	2	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elliot Washington II	25	1	0	6
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	5
Cam Miller	23	3	2	5

Boise State's OC Dirk Koetter

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64
Jambres Dubar	25	99	2	4.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

Boise State's DC Erik Chinander

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
Marco Notarainni	60	8	4	3	3
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0
Marco Notarainni	60	8	4	3	3
Max Stege	14	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6