Boise State at Georgia Southern - 2024 Matchup Preview

Boise State Broncos at Georgia Southern Eagles

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -13.0 (57.5) (-430) Open: -12.0 | 57.0
Boise State 56 - Georgia Southern: 45

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (34 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 92.3° (43% Hum)
Our Line: Boise State -15 (SP+ BSU -12)
Projected Score: BSU: 36 - GASO: 21 (57)
BSU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
BSU Travel: 2009 miles, 2 hrs behind

Eagles (8 - 5) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (12 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (31 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
GASO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Georgia Southern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia Southern vs Boise State	+13.0	57.5	L 45 - 56	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Georgia Southern at Nevada	+1.5	56.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Georgia Southern vs South Carolina State	-27.5	52.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Georgia Southern at Ole Miss	+35.0	68.5	L 13 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/28	Georgia Southern at Georgia State	+3.5	57.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia Southern vs Marshall	-1.0	58.5	W 24 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/19	Georgia Southern vs James Madison	+9.5	58.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/24	Georgia Southern at Old Dominion	-1.0	52.0	L 19 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/2	Georgia Southern at South Alabama	+5.5	60.0	W 34 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Georgia Southern vs Troy	-7.0	54.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	+2.0	59.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia Southern vs App State	-2.5	60.5	W 29 - 20	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston	-3.5	48.0	L 26 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)	37.3	49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)	22.6	39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)	28	46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)	27.6	47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)		46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)		47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	37.3	34.3	48.3%	4.83	0.6	22	437	234	204	6.5	55%	44%	49%	48%	12%	.36
GASO Defense	13	27.6	25.8	45.5%	3.81	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	47%	44%	14%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	22.6	24.5	38.2%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	39%	37%	20%	.16
GASO Offense	13	28	31.3	42.9%	4.57	1.7	22	366	128	238	3.8	46%	53%	46%	40%	17%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	29:25	21.6	49%	71%	4.5	39.8	0.6	1.1	7.4	3.6	3	30.1
Georgia Southern	13	30:09	21.8	45%	75%	5.6	48.3	1.7	1.5	4.6	1.6	1	27.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	55% (31)	49% (17)	36.2	233.5	6.5	42 (3)	.32 (6)	3.22 (39)	86% (3)	7% (10)	1.22 (5)
GASO Defense	13	47% (27)	47% (109)	-	-	-	-	.18 (99)	3.1 (87)	72% (60)	8% (106)	1 (79)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	43% (3)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.13 (72)	2.8 (34)	62% (12)	15% (3)	1.1 (113)
GASO Offense	13	46% (95)	46% (44)	33.8	128.2	3.8	24 (45)	.15 (57)	2.84 (101)	78% (36)	11% (94)	0.99 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	44% (103)	48% (12)	17	27.1	203.9	7.5	12	22 (46)	4 (1)	.41 (12)	1.5 (119)	29% (23)	35% (28)	.37 (55)	6% (58)	1.9 (111)
GASO Defense	13	53% (108)	44% (102)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (97)	1.5 (52)	31% (89)	32% (94)	.35 (89)	5% (100)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	57% (133)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.18 (42)	1.7 (96)	36% (10)	30% (62)	.41 (105)	6% (83)	2.3 (124)
GASO Offense	13	53% (39)	40% (85)	22.2	34.2	237.8	7	10.7	21 (51)	11 (72)	.23 (86)	1.5 (84)	31% (60)	33% (48)	.39 (43)	6% (65)	2 (90)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.35 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 14.35 Georgia Southern: -2.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 10.1 Georgia Southern: -1.7

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -2.765 #96
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 20.12 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 14.04 #102
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Georgia Southern's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Georgia Southern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.7 #76
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 36
Georgia Southern 21

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 36
Georgia Southern 18

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 32
Georgia Southern 26

Total Points: 58

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.8

Georgia Southern's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Georgia Southern	45	Boise State	56	Boise State -13.0	Georgia Southern	57.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia Southern	0	1	1 Overs
Boise State	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#16) BSU at (#96) GASO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	GASO
Power RatePwr	#16	#96
SP+SP+	#29	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#15	#95
OffenseOff	#6	#96
DefenseDef	#40	#90
Spec TeamsST	#62	#74
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#82

Boise State Notes(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report

Georgia Southern Notes(11/25) Big W @ Coastal. Beat App & help=SBC title
(11/25) French torced CC, Rgame awful, Def 3 INTs in W
(11/18) Bad L vs Troy, Rgame awful, Pass D awful
(11/3) Big W (S. Al), Outgained (100+) but forced 2 TOs
(10/24) Killed by ODU, gave up 500+ yds, 250+ rushing
(10/20) Rgame 190 (4.8 ypc), Def great in JMU upset
(10/18) QB French (concussion) cleared for JMU game
(10/13) Rgame bad vs Marshall, 21 pt 4Q comeback W
(9/28) Rgame 261 (5.4), French good vs Ga St.
(9/1) Good fight vs Boise, QB French good. Def awful
(8/17) Big year for Helton, need progress
(7/30) QB battle, Williams (IU) vs French, WR look good
Georgia Southern Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	GASO Def
Perf GradePerf	#6	#90
SuccessSuc	#12	#108
ExplosiveExp	#37	#70
PPAPPA	#3	#105
PowerPwr	#10	#102
SP+SP+	#17	#90
Pts POPPO	#4	#71
HavocHav	#20	#110

Boise State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#1	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#109
Run ExplRExp	#5	#79
PPAExp	#6	#99
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#87
Stuff RateStuff	#58	#52
TackleTak	-	#64

Boise State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#102
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#52
PPAExp	#12	#97
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#89
F7 HavocF7	#10	#106
DB HavocDB	#58	#100

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	BSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#96	#40
SuccessSuc	#65	#27
ExplosiveExp	#77	#119
PPAPPA	#68	#59
PowerPwr	#66	#22
SP+SP+	#72	#50
Pts POPPO	#17	#24
HavocHav	#87	#7

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#80	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#33
Run ExplRExp	#57	#113
PPAExp	#57	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#101	#34
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#21
TackleTak	-	#134

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#85	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#96
PPAExp	#86	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#23	#52
F7 HavocF7	#94	#3
DB HavocDB	#65	#83

Program Comparison
GASO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 92°

Rematch from Week 1
Boise State 13.0 (57.5)
Boise State won at Georgia Southern this year (56-45)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Georgia Southern last year (56-45)

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	374	2601	29	7.0	77
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Ahmed Hassanein	48	16	10	3	0
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	269	410	66%	2831	17	11	6.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)	19	30	63%	248	3	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen White	164	745	14	4.5	49
OJ Arnold	62	315	3	5.1	32
JC French	118	238	2	2.0	19
David Mbadinga	58	229	3	3.9	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Derwin Burgess Jr.	59	659	3	11.2	48
Josh Dallas	46	614	6	13.3	59
Dalen Cobb	52	599	4	11.5	55
LV Bunkley-Shelton (Tr)	30	322	0	10.7	34

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Watson-Trent	118	8	2	2	1
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Jusfin Meyers	61	3	1	1	1
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davon Gilmore	62	5	3	4	1
Davion Rhodes	22	6	3	1	0
Elhadj Fall	20	5	3	1	1
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chance Gamble (Tr)	48	2	0	0	7
Marc Stampley II	42	2	2	0	7
Isaac Walker	23	4	2	3	3