Hawai'i at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -12 (45.5) (-455) Open: -13.0
Hawai'i 21 - Fresno State: 20 (Mountain West)

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (16 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPH
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
HAW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -5.5 (SP+ FRES -7)
Projected Score: HAW: 21 - FRES: 26 (47)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
HAW Travel: 2515 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Hawai'i vs Delaware State	-38.5	57.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 8/31	Hawai'i vs UCLA	+13.5	55.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Hawai'i at Sam Houston	+3.5	48.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/21	Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa	-10.0	46.0	W 36 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+1.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/12	Hawai'i vs Boise State	+21.0	60.0	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Hawai'i at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/26	Hawai'i vs Nevada	-2.5	42.0	W 34 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+12.0	45.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+12.0	51.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Hawai'i at Utah State	-2.5	62.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	+6.5	61.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)	22.3	46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)	26	45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	26.1	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	24.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	12	22.3	15.6	44.2%	3.81	1.6	21	367	99	268	3.6	36%	64%	46%	44%	19%	.17
FRES Defense	13	24.8	18	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	12	26	35	42%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	45%	40%	16%	.19
FRES Offense	13	26.1	32	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	12	30:19	20.8	37%	55%	8	70.3	1.6	0.9	5.7	2.3	1	25.6
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	12	36% (134)	46% (45)	27.8	99	3.6	7 (131)	.13 (68)	3.29 (26)	80% (23)	11% (88)	0.83 (124)
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	12	50% (57)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (90)	3.27 (108)	79% (103)	10% (74)	0.97 (62)
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	12	64% (1)	44% (50)	23.8	40.1	268.2	6.7	11.3	25 (31)	15 (123)	.21 (92)	1.4 (130)	32% (80)	33% (49)	.31 (81)	8% (127)	2 (94)
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	12	50% (79)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.22 (58)	1.4 (19)	31% (82)	30% (63)	.31 (72)	6% (73)	1.8 (13)
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.14 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -5.14 Fresno State: -2.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.9 Fresno State: -3.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.6
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 26
Hawai'i 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 27
Hawai'i 21

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 30
Hawai'i 20

Total Points: 50

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State	23	Fresno State -2.5	Hawai'i	47.5	Under
2024	11/02	Fresno State	20	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State -12	Hawai'i	45.5	Under
2022	11/05	Fresno State	55	Hawai'i	13	Fresno State -27	Fresno State	62.0	Over
2021	10/02	Hawai'i	27	Fresno State	24	Fresno State -10.5	Hawai'i	64.5	Under
2020	10/24	Fresno State	19	Hawai'i	34	Fresno State -2.5	Hawai'i	64.5	Under
2019	11/02	Hawai'i	38	Fresno State	41	Hawai'i -2	Fresno State	69.5	Over
2018	10/27	Fresno State	50	Hawai'i	20	Fresno State -24.5	Fresno State	59.5	Over
2017	11/11	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State	31	Fresno State -10	NA	53.0	Under
2016	11/19	Fresno State	13	Hawai'i	14	Hawai'i -2.5	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2015	11/14	Hawai'i	14	Fresno State	42	Hawai'i -4	Fresno State	53.0	Over
2014	11/29	Fresno State	28	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State -12	Hawai'i	0
2013	09/29	Hawai'i	37	Fresno State	42	Fresno State -18.5	Hawai'i	0
2012	11/03	Fresno State	45	Hawai'i	10
2011	11/19	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State	24
2010	10/09	Fresno State	27	Hawai'i	49
2009	10/10	Hawai'i	17	Fresno State	42
2008	10/04	Fresno State	29	Hawai'i	32
2007	11/10	Hawai'i	37	Fresno State	30
2006	10/14	Fresno State	37	Hawai'i	68
2005	10/29	Hawai'i	13	Fresno State	27
2004	11/12	Fresno State	70	Hawai'i	14
2003	10/12	Hawai'i	55	Fresno State	28
2002	10/25	Fresno State	21	Hawai'i	31
2001	10/26	Hawai'i	38	Fresno State	34
2000	11/03	Fresno State	45	Hawai'i	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	14	5	4 Overs
Hawai'i	11	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 15	6 - 5	2 - 5	4 - 0
Road Teams	15 - 10	5 - 6	0 - 4	5 - 2

(#84) HAW at (#87) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#87
SP+SP+	#107	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#87
OffenseOff	#107	#74
DefenseDef	#68	#88
Spec TeamsST	#91	#130
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

Hawai'i Notes(11/18) Killed by Utah St, QB's 5 INTs? Rgame awful
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#88
SuccessSuc	#52	#51
ExplosiveExp	#120	#13
PPAPPA	#82	#17
PowerPwr	#45	#33
SP+SP+	#108	#77
Pts POPPO	#81	#47
HavocHav	#117	#113

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#87	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#74
Run ExplRExp	#124	#7
PPAExp	#68	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#26	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#65
TackleTak	-	#79

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#34
PPAExp	#92	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#105
F7 HavocF7	#88	#121
DB HavocDB	#127	#65

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#68
SuccessSuc	#110	#71
ExplosiveExp	#38	#35
PPAPPA	#110	#81
PowerPwr	#95	#68
SP+SP+	#85	#89
Pts POPPO	#91	#103
HavocHav	#34	#74

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#117	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#85
Run ExplRExp	#76	#62
PPAExp	#111	#90
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#96
TackleTak	-	#59

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#19
PPAExp	#89	#58
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#106
F7 HavocF7	#34	#74
DB HavocDB	#64	#73

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Fresno State -12.0 (45.5)
Hawai'i won at Fresno State this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Fresno State last year (21-20)
Fresno State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (55-13)

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	233	404	58%	2591	19	13	6.4
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Brayden Schager	135	267	6	2.0	46
Tylan Hines	39	162	0	4.2	15
Cam Barfield (Tr)	33	158	0	4.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)	16	402	4	25.1	74
Jonah Panoke	33	387	3	11.7	49

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1
Malachi Finau	19	4	3	1
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cameron Stone	38	3	8
Caleb Brown	24	2	7
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4