Hawai'i at Fresno State Game Matchup
Hawai Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -12 (45.5) (-455)  Open: -13.0
Hawai'i 21 - Fresno State: 20  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (16 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
HAW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -5.5   (SP+ FRES -7)
Projected Score: HAW: 21 - FRES: 27 (50)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
HAW Travel: 2515 miles, 3 hrs behind
Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Hawai'i vs Delaware State-38.557.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 8/31 Hawai'i vs UCLA+13.555.5L 13 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Hawai'i at Sam Houston+3.548.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/21 Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa-10.046.0W 36 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Hawai'i at San Diego State+1.547.5L 24 - 27ON
Sat 10/12 Hawai'i vs Boise State+21.060.0L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/19 Hawai'i at Washington State+18.555.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/26 Hawai'i vs Nevada-2.542.0W 34 - 13OY
Sat 11/2 Hawai'i at Fresno State+12.045.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Hawai'i vs UNLV+12.051.5L 27 - 29OY
Sat 11/16 Hawai'i at Utah State-2.562.0L 10 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Hawai'i vs New Mexico+6.561.5W 38 - 30OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Fresno State at Michigan+21.048.0L 10 - 30UY
Sat 9/7 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.555.5W 46 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.548.5W 48 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Fresno State at New Mexico-12.061.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Fresno State at UNLV+2.551.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Fresno State vs Washington State+3.560.5L 17 - 25UN
Fri 10/18 Fresno State at Nevada-3.050.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Fresno State vs San José State-6.555.0W 33 - 10UY
Sat 11/2 Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.045.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 11/9 Fresno State at Air Force-9.540.5L 28 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.543.5W 28 - 22OY
Sat 11/30 Fresno State at UCLA+7.546.5L 13 - 20UY
Mon 12/23 Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#94 (.14)41% (82)22.340% (98)2.79 (119)7642% (64)2763.22 (111)#102 (.24)43% (84)2644% (77)43% (88)4.14 (101)56.41.81.1
FRES#51 (.22)44% (48)26.140% (103)2.97 (95)10647% (24)2814.21 (36)#66 (.18)41% (60)24.842% (62)41% (64)3.31 (20)39.81.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense1322.315.641%3.221.819352762763.134%65%40%42%18%.14
FRES Defense1324.81841.5%3.311.8 - - - - - 53%46%42%41%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense13263543.2%4.141.1 - - - - - 57%43%44%43%16%.24
FRES Offense1326.13243.8%4.211.1213881062813.837%62%40%47%15%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i1329:3919.337%52%6.256.41.81.15.21.7029.1
Fresno State1329:2120.948%64%4.439.81.11.85.52.2131.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense1334% (133)40% (98)24.976.13.16 (133).09 (103)2.79 (119)62% (126)11% (90)1 (67)
FRES Defense1353% (105)42% (62) - - - - .13 (61)3.16 (84)68% (42)9% (95)0.91 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense1357% (127)44% (77) - - - - .17 (87)3.16 (83)75% (82)10% (66)1.06 (94)
FRES Offense1337% (129)40% (103)28.4106.53.816 (89).14 (77)2.97 (95)74% (70)8% (28)1.01 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense1365% (2)42% (64)25.941.3276.46.710.727 (25)15 (116).2 (94)1.5 (104)34% (96)32% (62).33 (69)7% (100)2 (84)
FRES Defense1346% (28)41% (64) - - - - - - 17 (3).3 (90)1.7 (93)32% (60)33% (106).34 (84)7% (44)2 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense1343% (7)43% (88) - - - - - - 7 (111).38 (114)1.7 (110)31% (89)31% (80).4 (107)6% (58)2.1 (84)
FRES Offense1362% (5)47% (24)25.839.6281.37.110.929 (18)12 (85).3 (65)1.5 (118)31% (49)38% (10).43 (37)7% (93)1.8 (125)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.14 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -5.14   Fresno State: -2.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.9   Fresno State: -3.8




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.6
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 27
Hawai'i 21

Projected Total Points: 50
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Fresno State20Hawai'i21Hawai'iFresno State -12Hawai'i45.5Under
202211/05Fresno State55Hawai'i13Fresno StateFresno State -27Fresno State62.0Over
202110/02Hawai'i27Fresno State24Hawai'iFresno State -10.5Hawai'i64.5Under
202010/24Fresno State19Hawai'i34Hawai'iFresno State -2.5Hawai'i64.5Under
201911/02Hawai'i38Fresno State41Fresno StateHawai'i -2Fresno State69.5Over
201810/27Fresno State50Hawai'i20Fresno StateFresno State -24.5Fresno State59.5Over
201711/11Hawai'i21Fresno State31Fresno StateFresno State -10NA53.0Under
201611/19Fresno State13Hawai'i14Hawai'iHawai'i -2.5Fresno State54.5Under
201511/14Hawai'i14Fresno State42Fresno StateHawai'i -4Fresno State53.0Over
201411/29Fresno State28Hawai'i21Fresno StateFresno State -12Hawai'i0
201309/29Hawai'i37Fresno State42Fresno StateFresno State -18.5Hawai'i0
201211/03Fresno State45Hawai'i10Fresno State
201111/19Hawai'i21Fresno State24Fresno State
201010/09Fresno State27Hawai'i49Hawai'i
200910/10Hawai'i17Fresno State42Fresno State
200810/04Fresno State29Hawai'i32Hawai'i
200711/10Hawai'i37Fresno State30Hawai'i
200610/14Fresno State37Hawai'i68Hawai'i
200510/29Hawai'i13Fresno State27Fresno State
200411/12Fresno State70Hawai'i14Fresno State
200310/12Hawai'i55Fresno State28Hawai'i
200210/25Fresno State21Hawai'i31Hawai'i
200110/26Hawai'i38Fresno State34Hawai'i
200011/03Fresno State45Hawai'i27Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State1354 Overs
Hawai'i1155 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 145 - 52 - 53 - 0
Road Teams14 - 105 - 50 - 35 - 2

(#84) Hawai'i Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.14 #84
Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89
Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Hawai'i Notes
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i     Ratings Matchup     Fresno State
Power #84
#87
Off #45
#95
Def #68
#33
Talent #113
#88
SP+ #107
#85
SP+ Off #108
#85
SP+ Def #89
#77

Rematch from Week 10
Fresno State -12.0 (45.5)
Hawai'i won at Fresno State this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Fresno State last year (21-20)
Fresno State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (55-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66° - Wind: 13 mph


Team Information
Injuries: HAW | FRES
Depth Chart: HAW | FRES
Rosters: HAW | FRES
(#87) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best


  
Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado497070%585608.4
John-Keawe Sagapolutele4757%42026.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims7135114.929
Tylan Hines3916204.215
Cam Barfield (Tr)3315804.821
Christian Vaughn1710906.430
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nicholas Cenacle63721611.462
Pofele Ashlock61629610.330
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)16402425.174
Spencer Curtis19244012.828

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis555220
Logan Taylor521000
Elijah Robinson5111510
Peter Manuma430003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III205550
Elijah Robinson5111510
Malachi Finau194310
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina133200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Brown242007
Elijah Palmer325005
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen331004

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene27639270%288718117.4
Joshua Wood182864%195117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Malik Sherrod6019643.348
Joshua Wood3711863.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Moss49582411.949
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)51523310.338
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471
Richie Anderson1714708.618

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jayden Davis461002
Phoenix Jackson455254
Kosi Agina382001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phoenix Jackson455254
Korey Foreman (Tr)235241
Jacob Holmes173230
Sione Noa153230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Phoenix Jackson455254
Julian Neal324104