Oregon State at Boise State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo Oregon State Beavers at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Friday, November 29th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Boise State -17.5 (58.5) (-900)  Open: -19.5 | 55.5
Boise State 34 - Oregon State: 18

 
Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
BSU is playing their 6th straight game
ORST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -25.5   (SP+ BSU -17)

Projected Score: ORST: 16 - BSU: 41 (58)
BSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
ORST Travel: 358 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.557.5W 38 - 15UN
Sat 9/7 Oregon State at San Diego State-5.554.5W 21 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Oregon State vs Oregon+16.050.0L 14 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Oregon State vs Purdue-1.551.0W 38 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.047.0W 39 - 31ON
Sat 10/12 Oregon State at Nevada-3.047.0L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/19 Oregon State vs UNLV+6.561.0L 25 - 33UN
Sat 10/26 Oregon State at California+13.051.0L 7 - 44UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Oregon State vs San José State-3.058.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 11/16 Oregon State at Air Force-3.044.5L 0 - 28UN
Sat 11/23 Oregon State vs Washington State+11.057.0W 41 - 38OY
Fri 11/29 Oregon State at Boise State+17.558.5L 18 - 34UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Boise State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Boise State at Georgia Southern-13.057.5W 56 - 45ON
Sat 9/7 Boise State at Oregon+17.560.5L 34 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Boise State vs Portland State-43.069.5W 56 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Boise State vs Washington State-6.566.0W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/5 Boise State vs Utah State-28.066.5W 62 - 30OY
Sat 10/12 Boise State at Hawai'i-21.060.0W 28 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25 Boise State at UNLV-4.064.0W 29 - 24UY
Fri 11/1 Boise State vs San Diego State-24.555.5W 56 - 24OY
Sat 11/9 Boise State vs Nevada-23.560.5W 28 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 Boise State at San José State-14.562.0W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/23 Boise State at Wyoming-22.054.0W 17 - 13UN
Fri 11/29 Boise State vs Oregon State-17.558.5W 34 - 18UN
Fri 12/6 Boise State vs UNLV-3.557.5W 21 - 7UY
Tue 12/31 Boise State vs Penn State+11.554.5L 14 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#13 (.32)48% (14)24.352% (6)3.24 (43)16745% (39)2424.78 (11)#39 (.14)44% (91)29.946% (102)43% (81)3.42 (37)50.111.5
BSU#19 (.3)47% (21)37.351% (10)3.46 (9)21542% (69)2214.2 (38)#90 (.22)41% (59)22.644% (79)40% (42)4.04 (90)321.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1324.316.648.1%4.781214091672424.952%47%52%45%14%.32
BSU Defense1422.619.741.3%4.041.4 - - - - - 46%53%44%40%17%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1329.929.643.8%3.421.5 - - - - - 46%53%46%43%18%.14
BSU Offense1437.343.146.6%4.21.5214362152215.457%42%51%42%14%.3

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1330:3921.439%57%5.550.111.55.52.7229.7
Boise State1431:1121.446%82%3.7321.51.45.92.5029.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1352% (51)52% (6)34.2167.14.926 (30).23 (26)3.24 (43)73% (79)9% (43)0.97 (85)
BSU Defense1446% (24)44% (79) - - - - .19 (95)3.08 (59)66% (29)11% (34)1.09 (108)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1346% (20)46% (102) - - - - .09 (35)2.9 (36)84% (122)10% (61)0.84 (10)
BSU Offense1457% (19)51% (10)40214.95.434 (7).3 (6)3.46 (9)84% (6)8% (34)1.07 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1347% (82)45% (39)17.129.2242.28.314.226 (31)8 (30).44 (21)1.8 (17)32% (77)37% (17).56 (9)6% (48)2.2 (24)
BSU Defense1453% (112)40% (42) - - - - - - 11 (53).28 (72)1.7 (91)33% (48)32% (91).37 (95)6% (72)2.1 (80)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1353% (114)43% (81) - - - - - - 12 (37).26 (60)1.6 (61)33% (54)33% (111).3 (59)7% (22)2 (46)
BSU Offense1442% (117)42% (69)15.426.6221.38.314.320 (70)13 (97).38 (29)1.8 (12)29% (16)34% (38).38 (56)6% (66)2.1 (57)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -14.99 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 558.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 519
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -14.99   Boise State: 14.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -6.7   Boise State: 10.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.725 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 626.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 41
Oregon State 16


Projected Total Points: 58
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29Boise State34Oregon State18Boise StateBoise State -17.5Oregon State58.5Under
202209/03Oregon State34Boise State17Oregon StateOregon State -2Oregon State55.5Under
201609/24Oregon State24Boise State38Boise StateBoise State -14NA60.0Over
201312/24Oregon State38Boise State23Oregon StateOregon State -4Oregon State66.5Under
201009/25Boise State37Oregon State24Boise State
200609/07Boise State42Oregon State14Boise State
200509/10Oregon State30Boise State27Oregon State
200409/10Boise State53Oregon State34Boise State
200309/20Oregon State26Boise State24Oregon State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State501 Overs
Oregon State433 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 81 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#113) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.99 #113
Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107
Talent Rating: 558.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.35 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Oregon State Notes
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
Oregon State     Ratings Matchup     Boise State
Power #113
#16
Off #79
#10
Def #129
#22
Talent #83
#69
SP+ #97
#29
SP+ Off #73
#17
SP+ Def #107
#50

Rematch from Week 14
Boise State -17.5 (58.5)
Boise State won vs Oregon State this year (34-18)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Oregon State last year (34-18)
Oregon State beat Boise State in 2022 (34-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 33°

Team Information
Injuries: ORST | BSU
Depth Chart: ORST | BSU
Rosters: ORST | BSU
(#16) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.725 #16
Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50
Talent Rating: 626.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Boise State Notes
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter


  
Oregon State's OC Ryan Gunderson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)12320261%1300366.4
Gabarri Johnson (Tr)152952%174016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)2321082154.783
Jamious Griffin7345046.233
Gevani McCoy (Tr)5932855.671
Salahadin Allah5525814.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trent Walker81901211.143
Jermaine Terry II23375116.343
Darrius Clemons (Tr)25292211.744
Jeremiah Noga23266011.630

View Oregon State's Full Roster
Oregon State's DC Keith Heyward
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas810009
Isaiah Chisom755020
Nikko Taylor468373
Melvin Jordan IV453001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nikko Taylor468373
Dexter Foster432120
Semisi Saluni345132
Oluwaseyi Omotosho141160
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas810009
Sailasa Vadrawale301004
Andre Jordan272004

Boise State's OC Dirk Koetter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)121771%128017.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Jambres Dubar259924.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Camper (Tr)58903415.653
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Prince Strachan25304112.237

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Zion Washington674006
Marco Notarainni608433
A'Marion McCoy6020112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Braxton Fely249610
Marco Notarainni608433
Max Stege145300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Zion Washington674006
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)341006