Nevada at Hawai'i - 2024 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (11:59 PM EDT)
Hawai'i -2.5 (42.0) (110)  Open: -2.5 | 47.5
Hawai'i 34 - Nevada: 13  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Wind: 24.9 MPH
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -9   (SP+ HAW -4)
Projected Score: NEV: 19 - HAW: 28 (51)
HAW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 2565 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
 
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Nevada vs SMU+28.055.5L 24 - 29UY
Sat 8/31 Nevada at Troy+7.544.5W 28 - 26OY
Sat 9/7 Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 Nevada at Minnesota+17.544.5L 0 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.554.5W 49 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Nevada at San José State+7.051.5L 31 - 35OY
Sat 10/12 Nevada vs Oregon State+3.047.0W 42 - 37OY
Fri 10/18 Nevada vs Fresno State+3.050.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Nevada at Hawai'i+2.542.0L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 Nevada vs Colorado State+2.045.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Nevada at Boise State+23.560.5L 21 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Nevada vs Air Force-3.044.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 11/30 Nevada at UNLV+17.554.5L 14 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Hawai'i vs Delaware State-38.557.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 8/31 Hawai'i vs UCLA+13.555.5L 13 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Hawai'i at Sam Houston+3.548.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/21 Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa-10.046.0W 36 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Hawai'i at San Diego State+1.547.5L 24 - 27ON
Sat 10/12 Hawai'i vs Boise State+21.060.0L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/19 Hawai'i at Washington State+18.555.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/26 Hawai'i vs Nevada-2.542.0W 34 - 13OY
Sat 11/2 Hawai'i at Fresno State+12.045.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Hawai'i vs UNLV+12.051.5L 27 - 29OY
Sat 11/16 Hawai'i at Utah State-2.562.0L 10 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Hawai'i vs New Mexico+6.561.5W 38 - 30OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#128 (.04)35% (129)23.139% (116)2.67 (127)12532% (132)1752.54 (132)#101 (.24)46% (122)28.847% (110)47% (126)3.83 (71)58.51.71.3
HAW#94 (.14)41% (82)22.340% (98)2.79 (119)7642% (64)2763.22 (111)#102 (.24)43% (84)2644% (77)43% (88)4.14 (101)56.41.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1223.117.835.4%2.541.7173001251753.455%45%39%32%22%.04
HAW Defense132619.643.2%4.141.1 - - - - - 57%43%44%43%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1228.831.346.5%3.831.3 - - - - - 51%48%47%47%14%.24
HAW Offense1322.327.141%3.221.819352762763.134%65%40%42%18%.14

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1916.730%43%6.858.51.71.341.3326.8
Hawai'i1329:3919.337%52%6.256.41.81.15.21.7029.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1255% (33)39% (116)36.9124.83.414 (106).08 (107)2.67 (127)55% (132)16% (133)0.98 (78)
HAW Defense1357% (127)44% (77) - - - - .17 (87)3.16 (83)75% (82)10% (66)1.06 (94)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1251% (81)47% (110) - - - - .19 (97)3.28 (107)67% (30)9% (99)1.07 (104)
HAW Offense1334% (133)40% (98)24.976.13.16 (133).09 (103)2.79 (119)62% (126)11% (90)1 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1245% (102)32% (132)15.928.8175.26.1116 (133)12 (85).02 (132)1.5 (88)34% (107)26% (109).06 (132)6% (89)1.7 (130)
HAW Defense1343% (7)43% (88) - - - - - - 7 (111).38 (114)1.7 (110)31% (89)31% (80).4 (107)6% (58)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (52)47% (126) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (99)1.6 (83)30% (102)30% (68).28 (50)5% (99)2 (37)
HAW Offense1365% (2)42% (64)25.941.3276.46.710.727 (25)15 (116).2 (94)1.5 (104)34% (96)32% (62).33 (69)7% (100)2 (84)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 430.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37   Hawai'i: -5.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2   Hawai'i: -10.9




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.52 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 28
Nevada 19

Projected Total Points: 51
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Hawai'i34Nevada13Hawai'iHawai'i -2.5Hawai'i42.0Over
202311/04Nevada14Hawai'i27Hawai'iNevada -3.5Hawai'i50.5Under
202210/15Hawai'i31Nevada16Hawai'iNevada -6.5Hawai'i51.5Under
202110/16Nevada34Hawai'i17NevadaNevada -14Nevada61.5Under
202011/28Hawai'i24Nevada21Hawai'iNevada -7Hawai'i61.5Under
201909/28Nevada3Hawai'i54Hawai'iNevada -2Hawai'i64.0Under
201810/20Hawai'i22Nevada40NevadaHawai'i -3Nevada67.0Under
201710/07Nevada35Hawai'i21NevadaHawai'i -4.5Nevada62.5Under
201610/01Hawai'i38Nevada17Hawai'iNevada -3.5Hawai'i55.5Under
201510/24Nevada30Hawai'i20NevadaNevada -6.5Nevada54.0Under
201410/26Hawai'i18Nevada26NevadaNevada -4Nevada0
201309/21Nevada31Hawai'i9NevadaNevada -14Nevada0
201209/22Hawai'i24Nevada69Nevada
201111/12Nevada42Hawai'i28Nevada
201010/16Hawai'i27Nevada21Hawai'i
200910/31Nevada31Hawai'i21Nevada
200810/26Hawai'i38Nevada31Hawai'i
200711/16Nevada26Hawai'i28Hawai'i
200610/07Hawai'i41Nevada34Hawai'i
200511/05Nevada38Hawai'i28Nevada
200410/10Hawai'i48Nevada26Hawai'i
200311/15Nevada24Hawai'i14Nevada
200210/12Hawai'i59Nevada34Hawai'i
200109/22Nevada28Hawai'i20Nevada
200011/10Hawai'i37Nevada17Hawai'i
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i1361 Overs
Nevada1269 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams19 - 68 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams6 - 194 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#109) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Talent Rating: 430.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
Nevada     Ratings Matchup     Hawai'i
Power #109
#84
Off #46
#45
Def #108
#68
Talent #112
#113
SP+ #117
#107
SP+ Off #106
#108
SP+ Def #113
#89

Rematch from Week 9
Hawai'i -2.5 (42.0)
Hawai'i won vs Nevada this year (34-13)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Nevada last year (34-13)
Hawai'i beat Nevada in 2023 (27-14)
Hawai'i beat Nevada in 2022 (31-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 25 mph


Team Information
Injuries: NEV | HAW
Depth Chart: NEV | HAW
Rosters: NEV | HAW
(#84) Hawai'i Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.52 #84
Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89
Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Hawai'i Notes
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.


  
Nevada's OC Matt Lubick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis21131268%22901677.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)182572%239119.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendon Lewis15777584.967
Savion Red (Tr)11968785.869
Pat Garwo III5524654.525
Sean Dollars4716503.526
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Smith62849713.762
Cortez Braham56724412.957
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Drue Watts655103
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Stone Combs583100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Henry Ikahihifo438430
Kristopher Ross296332
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr.4110010
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Chad Brown475006

Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado497070%585608.4
John-Keawe Sagapolutele4757%42026.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims7135114.929
Tylan Hines3916204.215
Cam Barfield (Tr)3315804.821
Christian Vaughn1710906.430
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nicholas Cenacle63721611.462
Pofele Ashlock61629610.330
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)16402425.174
Spencer Curtis19244012.828

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis555220
Logan Taylor521000
Elijah Robinson5111510
Peter Manuma430003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III205550
Elijah Robinson5111510
Malachi Finau194310
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina133200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Brown242007
Elijah Palmer325005
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen331004