Nevada at Hawai'i - 2024 Matchup Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (11:59 PM EDT)
Hawai'i -2.5 (42.0) (110) Open: -2.5 | 47.5
Hawai'i 34 - Nevada: 13 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 24.9 MPH
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -9 (SP+ HAW -4)
Projected Score: NEV: 19 - HAW: 28 (47)
HAW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 2565 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Hawai'i vs Delaware State	-38.5	57.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 8/31	Hawai'i vs UCLA	+13.5	55.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Hawai'i at Sam Houston	+3.5	48.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/21	Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa	-10.0	46.0	W 36 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+1.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/12	Hawai'i vs Boise State	+21.0	60.0	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Hawai'i at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/26	Hawai'i vs Nevada	-2.5	42.0	W 34 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+12.0	45.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+12.0	51.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Hawai'i at Utah State	-2.5	62.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	+6.5	61.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)	23.1	47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)	28.8	49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)	22.3	46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)	26	45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	13	23.1	17.8	44.5%	3.88	1.2	19	377	164	213	4.6	53%	47%	47%	42%	16%	.21
HAW Defense	12	26	19.6	42%	4.15	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	45%	40%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	13	28.8	31.3	46.4%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	49%	43%	14%	.24
HAW Offense	12	22.3	27.1	44.2%	3.81	1.6	21	367	99	268	3.6	36%	64%	46%	44%	19%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	13	31:02	19.5	45%	52%	7.6	73.1	1.2	1	4.2	1.1	1	26.4
Hawai'i	12	30:19	20.8	37%	55%	8	70.3	1.6	0.9	5.7	2.3	1	25.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	13	53% (47)	47% (33)	35.4	164.2	4.6	21 (59)	.16 (51)	3.06 (59)	69% (93)	10% (81)	0.97 (64)
HAW Defense	12	50% (57)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (90)	3.27 (108)	79% (103)	10% (74)	0.97 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	13	56% (126)	49% (121)	-	-	-	-	.27 (130)	3.17 (91)	80% (109)	8% (119)	1.08 (107)
HAW Offense	12	36% (134)	46% (45)	27.8	99	3.6	7 (131)	.13 (68)	3.29 (26)	80% (23)	11% (88)	0.83 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	13	47% (87)	42% (65)	19	28.2	212.6	7.6	11.2	19 (65)	8 (40)	.27 (57)	1.6 (71)	32% (69)	32% (60)	.42 (29)	6% (74)	2.1 (59)
HAW Defense	12	50% (79)	40% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.22 (58)	1.4 (19)	31% (82)	30% (63)	.31 (72)	6% (73)	1.8 (13)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	13	44% (11)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.2 (50)	1.5 (49)	30% (103)	39% (130)	.46 (119)	7% (47)	1.9 (42)
HAW Offense	12	64% (1)	44% (50)	23.8	40.1	268.2	6.7	11.3	25 (31)	15 (123)	.21 (92)	1.4 (130)	32% (80)	33% (49)	.31 (81)	8% (127)	2 (94)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37 Hawai'i: -5.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2 Hawai'i: -10.9

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.52 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 28
Nevada 19

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 28
Hawai'i 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 28
Nevada 22

Total Points: 50

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Hawai'i	34	Nevada	13	Hawai'i -2.5	Hawai'i	42.0	Over
2023	11/04	Nevada	14	Hawai'i	27	Nevada -3.5	Hawai'i	50.5	Under
2022	10/15	Hawai'i	31	Nevada	16	Nevada -6.5	Hawai'i	51.5	Under
2021	10/16	Nevada	34	Hawai'i	17	Nevada -14	Nevada	61.5	Under
2020	11/28	Hawai'i	24	Nevada	21	Nevada -7	Hawai'i	61.5	Under
2019	09/28	Nevada	3	Hawai'i	54	Nevada -2	Hawai'i	64.0	Under
2018	10/20	Hawai'i	22	Nevada	40	Hawai'i -3	Nevada	67.0	Under
2017	10/07	Nevada	35	Hawai'i	21	Hawai'i -4.5	Nevada	62.5	Under
2016	10/01	Hawai'i	38	Nevada	17	Nevada -3.5	Hawai'i	55.5	Under
2015	10/24	Nevada	30	Hawai'i	20	Nevada -6.5	Nevada	54.0	Under
2014	10/26	Hawai'i	18	Nevada	26	Nevada -4	Nevada	0
2013	09/21	Nevada	31	Hawai'i	9	Nevada -14	Nevada	0
2012	09/22	Hawai'i	24	Nevada	69
2011	11/12	Nevada	42	Hawai'i	28
2010	10/16	Hawai'i	27	Nevada	21
2009	10/31	Nevada	31	Hawai'i	21
2008	10/26	Hawai'i	38	Nevada	31
2007	11/16	Nevada	26	Hawai'i	28
2006	10/07	Hawai'i	41	Nevada	34
2005	11/05	Nevada	38	Hawai'i	28
2004	10/10	Hawai'i	48	Nevada	26
2003	11/15	Nevada	24	Hawai'i	14
2002	10/12	Hawai'i	59	Nevada	34
2001	09/22	Nevada	28	Hawai'i	20
2000	11/10	Hawai'i	37	Nevada	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	13	6	1 Overs
Nevada	12	6	9 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	19 - 6	8 - 4	4 - 3	4 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 19	4 - 8	1 - 4	3 - 4

(#109) NEV at (#84) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	HAW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#109	#84
SP+SP+	#117	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#94	#92
OffenseOff	#39	#107
DefenseDef	#119	#68
Spec TeamsST	#133	#91
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

Hawai'i Notes(11/18) Killed by Utah St, QB's 5 INTs? Rgame awful
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	HAW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#68
SuccessSuc	#46	#71
ExplosiveExp	#94	#35
PPAPPA	#55	#81
PowerPwr	#46	#68
SP+SP+	#106	#89
Pts POPPO	#73	#103
HavocHav	#78	#74

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#70	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#85
Run ExplRExp	#64	#62
PPAExp	#51	#90
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#59	#108
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#96
TackleTak	-	#59

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#71	#19
PPAExp	#57	#58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#106
F7 HavocF7	#81	#74
DB HavocDB	#74	#73

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#119
SuccessSuc	#52	#117
ExplosiveExp	#120	#59
PPAPPA	#82	#110
PowerPwr	#45	#108
SP+SP+	#108	#113
Pts POPPO	#81	#114
HavocHav	#117	#95

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#87	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#45	#121
Run ExplRExp	#124	#107
PPAExp	#68	#130
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#26	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#59	#69
TackleTak	-	#131

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#49
PPAExp	#92	#50
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#58
F7 HavocF7	#88	#119
DB HavocDB	#127	#47

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 25 mph

Rematch from Week 9
Hawai'i -2.5 (42.0)
Hawai'i won vs Nevada this year (34-13)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Nevada last year (34-13)
Hawai'i beat Nevada in 2023 (27-14)
Hawai'i beat Nevada in 2022 (31-16)

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	233	404	58%	2591	19	13	6.4
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Brayden Schager	135	267	6	2.0	46
Tylan Hines	39	162	0	4.2	15
Cam Barfield (Tr)	33	158	0	4.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)	16	402	4	25.1	74
Jonah Panoke	33	387	3	11.7	49

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1
Malachi Finau	19	4	3	1
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cameron Stone	38	3	8
Caleb Brown	24	2	7
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5