San Diego State at Boise State - 2024 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Friday, November 1st 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -24.5 (55.5) (-3200)  Open: -22.5
Boise State 56 - San Diego State: 24  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Wind: 19.9 MPH
Our Line: Boise State -32.5   (SP+ BSU -26)

Projected Score: SDSU: 12 - BSU: 45 (56)
BSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
SDSU Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7 San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.554.5L 0 - 21UN
Sat 9/14 San Diego State at California+18.548.5L 10 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.547.5L 21 - 22UY
Sat 10/5 San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.547.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 10/12 San Diego State at Wyoming+1.543.0W 27 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 San Diego State vs Washington State+17.056.5L 26 - 29UY
Fri 11/1 San Diego State at Boise State+24.555.5L 24 - 56ON
Fri 11/8 San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.565.5L 16 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 San Diego State at UNLV+22.055.5L 20 - 41OY
Sat 11/23 San Diego State at Utah State+5.060.0L 20 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 San Diego State vs Air Force+6.543.5L 20 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Boise State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Boise State at Georgia Southern-13.057.5W 56 - 45ON
Sat 9/7 Boise State at Oregon+17.560.5L 34 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Boise State vs Portland State-43.069.5W 56 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Boise State vs Washington State-6.566.0W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/5 Boise State vs Utah State-28.066.5W 62 - 30OY
Sat 10/12 Boise State at Hawai'i-21.060.0W 28 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25 Boise State at UNLV-4.064.0W 29 - 24UY
Fri 11/1 Boise State vs San Diego State-24.555.5W 56 - 24OY
Sat 11/9 Boise State vs Nevada-23.560.5W 28 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 Boise State at San José State-14.562.0W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/23 Boise State at Wyoming-22.054.0W 17 - 13UN
Fri 11/29 Boise State vs Oregon State-17.558.5W 34 - 18UN
Fri 12/6 Boise State vs UNLV-3.557.5W 21 - 7UY
Tue 12/31 Boise State vs Penn State+11.554.5L 14 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#96 (.14)42% (70)21.343% (69)3.08 (77)15441% (77)1723.2 (116)#108 (.24)47% (127)29.653% (130)43% (86)3.38 (30)441.41.5
BSU#19 (.3)47% (21)37.351% (10)3.46 (9)21542% (69)2214.2 (38)#90 (.22)41% (59)22.644% (79)40% (42)4.04 (90)321.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1221.320.341.9%3.21.4173261541724.156%43%43%41%15%.14
BSU Defense1422.619.741.3%4.041.4 - - - - - 46%53%44%40%17%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1229.635.846.9%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%52%53%43%16%.24
BSU Offense1437.343.146.6%4.21.5214362152215.457%42%51%42%14%.3

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1232:4717.235%57%4.9441.41.54.11.5131.6
Boise State1431:1121.446%82%3.7321.51.45.92.5029.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1256% (22)43% (69)37.8154.34.116 (89).12 (85)3.08 (77)74% (66)10% (67)0.9 (111)
BSU Defense1446% (24)44% (79) - - - - .19 (95)3.08 (59)66% (29)11% (34)1.09 (108)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1246% (22)53% (130) - - - - .27 (126)3.44 (123)83% (114)8% (118)0.93 (36)
BSU Offense1457% (19)51% (10)40214.95.434 (7).3 (6)3.46 (9)84% (6)8% (34)1.07 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1243% (112)41% (77)16.826.6171.86.510.210 (120)10 (56).21 (91)1.4 (125)32% (69)27% (100).1 (128)5% (28)1.6 (133)
BSU Defense1453% (112)40% (42) - - - - - - 11 (53).28 (72)1.7 (91)33% (48)32% (91).37 (95)6% (72)2.1 (80)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1252% (110)43% (86) - - - - - - 12 (37).27 (68)1.5 (33)28% (128)32% (100).34 (80)8% (18)2 (40)
BSU Offense1442% (117)42% (69)15.426.6221.38.314.320 (70)13 (97).38 (29)1.8 (12)29% (16)34% (38).38 (56)6% (66)2.1 (57)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -20.06 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 596.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -20.06   Boise State: 14.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -15.4   Boise State: 10.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.725 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 626.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 45
San Diego State 12


Projected Total Points: 56
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/01Boise State56San Diego State24Boise StateBoise State -24.5Boise State55.5Over
202309/22San Diego State31Boise State34Boise StateBoise State -6.5San Diego State46.0Over
202209/30Boise State35San Diego State13Boise StateBoise State -6Boise State38.0Over
202111/26San Diego State27Boise State16San Diego StateBoise State -3San Diego State44.0Under
201810/06Boise State13San Diego State19San Diego StateBoise State -13.5San Diego State50.0Under
201710/14San Diego State14Boise State31Boise StateSan Diego State -5.5Boise State47.0Under
201411/15Boise State38San Diego State29Boise StateBoise State -15San Diego State0
201311/23San Diego State34Boise State31San Diego StateBoise State -6San Diego State0
201211/03Boise State19San Diego State21San Diego State
201111/19San Diego State35Boise State52Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State633 Overs
San Diego State453 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 55 - 32 - 33 - 0
Road Teams5 - 53 - 50 - 33 - 2

(#122) San Diego State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -20.06 #122
Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Talent Rating: 596.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


San Diego State Notes
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State     Ratings Matchup     Boise State
Power #122
#16
Off #117
#10
Def #109
#22
Talent #75
#69
SP+ #119
#29
SP+ Off #122
#17
SP+ Def #104
#50

Rematch from Week 10
Boise State -24.5 (55.5)
Boise State won vs San Diego State this year (56-24)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat San Diego State last year (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2022 (35-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 54° - Wind: 20 mph


Team Information
Injuries: SDSU | BSU
Depth Chart: SDSU | BSU
Rosters: SDSU | BSU
(#16) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.725 #16
Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50
Talent Rating: 626.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Boise State Notes
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter


  
San Diego State's OC Sean Lewis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Danny O'Neil20933063%21811266.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson203951%222225.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)2921274124.447
Danny O'Neil748911.234
Cam Davis147605.438
Jaylon Armstead134203.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Louis Brown38620316.344
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)5045919.246
Jordan Napier43440410.253
Nate Bennett (Tr)22314114.348

View San Diego State's Full Roster
San Diego State's DC Eric Schmidt
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli (Tr)674220
Chris Johnson590013
Kyle Moretti (Tr)583100
Trey White56191351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White56191351
Tupu Alualu215400
Marlem Louis (Tr)104400
Ryan Henderson123320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn McCuin262115
Jelani Whitmore100003
Chris Johnson590013

Boise State's OC Dirk Koetter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)121771%128017.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Jambres Dubar259924.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Camper (Tr)58903415.653
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Prince Strachan25304112.237

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Zion Washington674006
Marco Notarainni608433
A'Marion McCoy6020112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Braxton Fely249610
Marco Notarainni608433
Max Stege145300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Zion Washington674006
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)341006