San Diego State at Boise State - 2024 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Friday, November 1st 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -24.5 (55.5) (-3200)  Open: -22.5
Boise State 56 - San Diego State: 24  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 19.9 MPH
Our Line: Boise State -32.5  (SP+ BSU -26)

Projected Score: SDSU: 12 - BSU: 45 (57)
BSU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
SDSU Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7 San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.554.5L 0 - 21UN
Sat 9/14 San Diego State at California+18.548.5L 10 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.547.5L 21 - 22UY
Sat 10/5 San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.547.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 10/12 San Diego State at Wyoming+1.543.0W 27 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 San Diego State vs Washington State+17.056.5L 26 - 29UY
Fri 11/1 San Diego State at Boise State+24.555.5L 24 - 56ON
Fri 11/8 San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.565.5L 16 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 San Diego State at UNLV+22.055.5L 20 - 41OY
Sat 11/23 San Diego State at Utah State+5.060.0L 20 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 San Diego State vs Air Force+6.543.5L 20 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Boise State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Boise State at Georgia Southern-13.057.5W 56 - 45ON
Sat 9/7 Boise State at Oregon+17.560.5L 34 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Boise State vs Portland State-43.069.5W 56 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Boise State vs Washington State-6.566.0W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/5 Boise State vs Utah State-28.066.5W 62 - 30OY
Sat 10/12 Boise State at Hawai'i-21.060.0W 28 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25 Boise State at UNLV-4.064.0W 29 - 24UY
Fri 11/1 Boise State vs San Diego State-24.555.5W 56 - 24OY
Sat 11/9 Boise State vs Nevada-23.560.5W 28 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 Boise State at San José State-14.562.0W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/23 Boise State at Wyoming-22.054.0W 17 - 13UN
Fri 11/29 Boise State vs Oregon State-17.558.5W 34 - 18UN
Fri 12/6 Boise State vs UNLV-3.557.5W 21 - 7UY
Tue 12/31 Boise State vs Penn State+11.554.5L 14 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)21.337% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)29.649% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)37.349% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)22.639% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1221.320.337.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12
BSU Defense1422.619.738.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1229.635.846.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
BSU Offense1437.343.148.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -20.06  #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55  #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20  #109
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4  #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -20.06   Boise State: 14.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -15.4   Boise State: 10.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.725  #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91  #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29  #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1  #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3  #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 45
San Diego State 12


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 36
San Diego State 24

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 37
San Diego State 21

Total Points: 58
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15San Diego State17Boise State7San Diego State -1.5San Diego State41.5Under
202411/01Boise State56San Diego State24Boise State -24.5Boise State55.5Over
202309/22San Diego State31Boise State34Boise State -6.5San Diego State46.0Over
202209/30Boise State35San Diego State13Boise State -6Boise State38.0Over
202111/26San Diego State27Boise State16Boise State -3San Diego State44.0Under
201810/06Boise State13San Diego State19Boise State -13.5San Diego State50.0Under
201710/14San Diego State14Boise State31San Diego State -5.5Boise State47.0Under
201411/15Boise State38San Diego State29Boise State -15San Diego State0
201311/23San Diego State34Boise State31Boise State -6San Diego State0
201211/03Boise State19San Diego State21
201111/19San Diego State35Boise State52
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State633 Overs
San Diego State564 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 56 - 33 - 33 - 0
Road Teams5 - 63 - 60 - 33 - 3

(#122) SDSU at (#16) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #122 #16
SP+SP+ #119 #29
Perf GradeGrade #108 #15
OffenseOff #91 #6
DefenseDef #116 #40
Spec TeamsST #24 #62
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #97 #74
San Diego State Notes
(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #91 #40
SuccessSuc #120 #27
ExplosiveExp #51 #119
PPAPPA #108 #59
PowerPwr #117 #22
SP+SP+ #122 #50
Pts POPPO #107 #24
HavocHav #99 #7
San Diego State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #118 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #33
Run ExplRExp #37 #113
PPAExp #84 #72
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #34
Stuff RateStuff #35 #21
TackleTak -  #134
San Diego State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #62 #38
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #29
Pass ExplPExl #99 #96
PPAExp #107 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #63 #52
F7 HavocF7 #114 #3
DB HavocDB #61 #83
Boise State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBSU OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #6 #116
SuccessSuc #12 #113
ExplosiveExp #37 #44
PPAPPA #3 #103
PowerPwr #10 #109
SP+SP+ #17 #104
Pts POPPO #4 #111
HavocHav #20 #131
Boise State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #1 #126
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #117
Run ExplRExp #5 #47
PPAExp #6 #113
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #130
Stuff RateStuff #58 #132
TackleTak -  #125
Boise State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBSU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #47 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #98
Pass ExplPExl #119 #75
PPAExp #12 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #87
F7 HavocF7 #10 #98
DB HavocDB #58 #133
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 54° - Wind: 20 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Boise State -24.5 (55.5)
Boise State won vs San Diego State this year (56-24)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat San Diego State last year (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2022 (35-13)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Danny O'Neil20933063%21811266.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson203951%222225.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)2921274124.447
Danny O'Neil748911.234
Cam Davis147605.438
Jaylon Armstead134203.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Louis Brown38620316.344
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)5045919.246
Jordan Napier43440410.253
Nate Bennett (Tr)22314114.348

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli (Tr)674220
Chris Johnson590013
Kyle Moretti (Tr)583100
Trey White56191351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White56191351
Tupu Alualu215400
Marlem Louis (Tr)104400
Ryan Henderson123320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn McCuin262115
Chris Johnson590013
Eric Butler443003

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)121771%128017.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashton Jeanty3742601297.077
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Camper (Tr)58903415.653
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Prince Strachan25304112.237

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Seyi Oladipo6811712
Zion Washington674006
A'Marion McCoy6020112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Ahmed Hassanein48161030
Seyi Oladipo6811712
Braxton Fely249610
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Zion Washington674006
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)341006