New Mexico at Hawai'i - 2024 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (11:00 PM EST)
New Mexico -6.5 (61.5) (-175)  Open: -2.5 | 61.5
Hawai'i 38 - New Mexico: 30  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UNM coming off BYE
HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -11   (SP+ HAW -4)

Projected Score: UNM: 25 - HAW: 36 (60)
UNM Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNM Travel: 3223 miles, 4 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 22 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 New Mexico vs Montana State+10.554.0L 31 - 35OY
Sat 8/31 New Mexico at Arizona+28.060.0L 39 - 61OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 New Mexico at Auburn+25.558.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/21 New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.061.0L 21 - 38UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.554.0W 50 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 New Mexico vs Air Force-7.056.0W 52 - 37OY
Sat 10/19 New Mexico at Utah State-1.078.5W 50 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 New Mexico at Colorado State+3.562.0L 6 - 17UN
Sat 11/2 New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.560.5L 45 - 49ON
Fri 11/8 New Mexico at San Diego State+1.565.5W 21 - 16UY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico vs Washington State+10.572.5W 38 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.561.5L 30 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 4, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Hawai'i vs Delaware State-38.557.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 8/31 Hawai'i vs UCLA+13.555.5L 13 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Hawai'i at Sam Houston+3.548.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/21 Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa-10.046.0W 36 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Hawai'i at San Diego State+1.547.5L 24 - 27ON
Sat 10/12 Hawai'i vs Boise State+21.060.0L 7 - 28UY
Sat 10/19 Hawai'i at Washington State+18.555.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 10/26 Hawai'i vs Nevada-2.542.0W 34 - 13OY
Sat 11/2 Hawai'i at Fresno State+12.045.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Hawai'i vs UNLV+12.051.5L 27 - 29OY
Sat 11/16 Hawai'i at Utah State-2.562.0L 10 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Hawai'i vs New Mexico+6.561.5W 38 - 30OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)33.553% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)3850% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)22.346% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)2645% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1233.530.748.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31
HAW Defense122619.642%4.150.9 - - - - - 50%50%45%40%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense123837.450.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
HAW Offense1222.327.144.2%3.811.621367992683.636%64%46%44%19%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
Hawai'i1230:1920.837%55%870.31.60.95.72.3125.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)
HAW Defense1250% (57)45% (85) - - - - .16 (90)3.27 (108)79% (103)10% (74)0.97 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
HAW Offense1236% (134)46% (45)27.8993.67 (131).13 (68)3.29 (26)80% (23)11% (88)0.83 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)
HAW Defense1250% (79)40% (58) - - - - - - 6 (109).22 (58)1.4 (19)31% (82)30% (63).31 (72)6% (73)1.8 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
HAW Offense1264% (1)44% (50)23.840.1268.26.711.325 (31)15 (123).21 (92)1.4 (130)32% (80)33% (49).31 (81)8% (127)2 (94)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10   Hawai'i: -5.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8   Hawai'i: -10.9




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.52 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 36
New Mexico 25


Total Points: 60

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Hawai'i38New Mexico30Hawai'iNew Mexico -6.5Hawai'i61.5Over
202310/21New Mexico42Hawai'i21New MexicoHawai'i -1.5New Mexico60.0Over
202011/07Hawai'i39New Mexico33Hawai'iHawai'i -15New Mexico61.5Over
201910/26New Mexico31Hawai'i45Hawai'iHawai'i -10Hawai'i70.5Over
201610/29Hawai'i21New Mexico28New MexicoHawai'i -3New Mexico65.5Under
201510/17New Mexico28Hawai'i27New MexicoNew Mexico -3.5Hawai'i51.5Over
201210/14Hawai'i23New Mexico35New Mexico
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i335 Overs
New Mexico431 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 32 - 40 - 32 - 1
Road Teams3 - 44 - 21 - 23 - 0

(#118) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -18.10 #118
Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 49%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

New Mexico has won 2 straight
New Mexico has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico Notes
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico has Really Good Running Game (#41)
New Mexico offense is efficent (#108)
New Mexico has a top Offensive Line (#79)
New Mexico does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#24)


New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
New Mexico Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
New Mexico has a bad defense (#98)
New Mexico has a bad defensive line (#82)
New Mexico has a bad red zone defense (#43)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatHAWUNM
OverallOver#66#66
OffenseOff#85#16
DefenseDef#51#113
Special TeamsST#76#112
PassingPass#38#25
RushingRush#63#5
Run BlockRBLK#45#24
Pass BlockPBLK#64#22
Route RunningWR Rt#100#47
TacklingTkl#52#100
Run DefenseR Def#55#102
Pass Rush DefPRush#90#114
Coverage DefCov#24#94

Rematch from Week 14
New Mexico 6.5 (61.5)
Hawai'i won vs New Mexico this year (38-30)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat New Mexico last year (38-30)
New Mexico beat Hawai'i in 2023 (42-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | HAW
Depth Chart: UNM | HAW
Rosters: UNM | HAW
(#84) Hawai'i Info
Power Rating: -5.52 #84
Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Hawai'i has lost 2 straight
Hawai'i has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (5 - 1 - 1 vs Spread)

Hawai'i Notes
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.

Hawai'i Highlights
Hawai'i is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Hawai'i has a top Offensive Line (#85)

Hawai'i Deficiencies
Hawai'i Can Not Run the Ball (#90)
Hawai'i Commits a Lot of Penalties (#136)
Hawai'i throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Hawai'i offense is not Explosive (#113)
Hawai'i has a bad defensive line (#100)
Hawai'i has a bad red zone defense (#56)


  
New Mexico's OC Jason Beck
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devon Dampier22639058%276812127.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devon Dampier1561152197.485
Eli Sanders (Tr)147106497.275
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)7438255.229
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4027736.950
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luke Wysong69840112.253
Ryan Davis54747313.855
Caleb Medford18336318.747
Nic Trujillo16305119.143

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Ellis934824
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005
Randolph Kpai (Tr)805153
Dmitri Johnson775212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Ellis934824
Moso'oipala Tuitele356420
Dmitri Johnson775212
Jayden Wilson323220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Taylor5620010
Noa Pola-Gates500007
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005

Hawai'i's OC Timmy Chang
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Schager23340458%259119136.4
Micah Alejado497070%585608.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims7135114.929
Brayden Schager13526762.046
Tylan Hines3916204.215
Cam Barfield (Tr)3315804.821
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nicholas Cenacle63721611.462
Pofele Ashlock61629610.330
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)16402425.174
Jonah Panoke33387311.749

View Hawai'i's Full Roster
Hawai'i's DC Dennis Thurman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis555220
Logan Taylor521000
Elijah Robinson5111510
Peter Manuma430003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III205550
Elijah Robinson5111510
Malachi Finau194310
Jamih Otis555220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cameron Stone383008
Caleb Brown242007
Elijah Palmer325005