Boise State at UNLV - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, October 25th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Boise State -4.0 (64.0) (-145) Open: -3.0 | 65.5
Boise State 29 - UNLV: 24 (Mountain West)

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BSU coming off BYE
UNLV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -3 (SP+ BSU -1)
Projected Score: BSU: 32 - UNLV: 29 (61)
BSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 2320 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Rebels (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (9 - 5)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

UNLV's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UNLV at Houston	+3.0	56.0	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UNLV vs Utah Tech	-41.5	55.5	W 72 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/13	UNLV vs Kansas	+7.0	57.0	W 23 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UNLV vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Fri 10/4	UNLV vs Syracuse	-5.5	55.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/11	UNLV at Utah State	-19.0	67.5	W 50 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/19	UNLV at Oregon State	-6.5	61.0	W 33 - 25	U	Y
Fri 10/25	UNLV vs Boise State	+4.0	64.0	L 24 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	UNLV at Hawai'i	-12.0	51.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/16	UNLV vs San Diego State	-22.0	55.5	W 41 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/22	UNLV at San José State	-7.5	59.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/30	UNLV vs Nevada	-17.5	54.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Fri 12/6	UNLV at Boise State	+3.5	57.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Wed 12/18	UNLV vs California	-3.0	45.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	#19 (.3)	47% (21)	29.9	51% (10)	3.46 (9)	215	42% (69)	221	4.2 (38)	#90 (.22)	41% (59)	24.1	44% (79)	40% (42)	4.04 (90)	32	1.5	1.4
UNLV	#38 (.27)	43% (58)	34.1	40% (101)	3.17 (58)	174	46% (28)	239	4.19 (40)	#115 (.26)	42% (65)	28	41% (52)	43% (93)	4.08 (94)	61.8	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	14	29.9	19.8	46.6%	4.2	1.5	21	436	215	221	5.4	57%	42%	51%	42%	14%	.3
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.7	41.7%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	43%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	14	24.1	23.8	41.3%	4.04	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	44%	40%	17%	.22
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	36.8	42.5%	4.19	1.4	20	413	174	239	4.5	54%	45%	40%	46%	13%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	14	31:11	21.4	46%	82%	3.7	32	1.5	1.4	5.9	2.5	0	29.4
UNLV	14	28:06	20.3	49%	45%	6.9	61.8	1.4	1.9	4	1.4	1	33.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	14	57% (19)	51% (10)	40	214.9	5.4	34 (7)	.3 (6)	3.46 (9)	84% (6)	8% (34)	1.07 (31)
UNLV Defense	14	53% (109)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.11 (50)	3.1 (69)	78% (101)	8% (113)	0.95 (42)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	14	46% (24)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.19 (95)	3.08 (59)	66% (29)	11% (34)	1.09 (108)
UNLV Offense	14	54% (36)	40% (101)	38.4	173.5	4.5	39 (2)	.2 (40)	3.17 (58)	76% (43)	8% (29)	1.18 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	14	42% (117)	42% (69)	15.4	26.6	221.3	8.3	14.3	20 (70)	13 (97)	.38 (29)	1.8 (12)	29% (16)	34% (38)	.38 (56)	6% (66)	2.1 (57)
UNLV Defense	14	46% (24)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.48 (133)	1.9 (133)	33% (52)	29% (55)	.32 (72)	4% (128)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	14	53% (112)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (72)	1.7 (91)	33% (48)	32% (91)	.37 (95)	6% (72)	2.1 (80)
UNLV Offense	14	45% (96)	46% (28)	17.9	28.9	239.2	8.3	13.3	17 (85)	12 (85)	.37 (30)	1.6 (56)	32% (81)	33% (43)	.4 (44)	5% (42)	2.1 (59)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.35 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 14.35 UNLV: 9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 10.1 UNLV: 9.3

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 9.22 #46
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.48 #81
UNLV's Defense Rating: 5.05 #27
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
UNLV's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
UNLV's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #36
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #31
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #55

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 32
UNLV 29

Projected Total Points: 61

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Boise State	56	UNLV	31	Boise State -12.5	Boise State	60.5	Over
2025	12/05	Boise State	38	UNLV	21	Boise State -6.0	Boise State	60.0	Under
2024	10/25	UNLV	24	Boise State	29	Boise State -4.0	Boise State	64.0	Under
2024	12/06	Boise State	21	UNLV	7	Boise State -3.5	Boise State	57.5	Under
2023	12/02	UNLV	20	Boise State	44	Boise State -2.5	Boise State	58.0	Over
2019	10/05	UNLV	13	Boise State	38	Boise State -24	Boise State	57.0	Under
2016	11/18	Boise State	42	UNLV	25	Boise State -26.5	UNLV	63.0	Over
2015	10/31	UNLV	27	Boise State	55	Boise State -21	Boise State	53.5	Over
2012	10/20	Boise State	32	UNLV	7
2011	11/05	UNLV	21	Boise State	48

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	0	1	4 Overs
Boise State	10	7	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 5	3 - 5	3 - 1	0 - 4
Road Teams	5 - 5	5 - 3	4 - 0	1 - 3

(#16) BSU at (#46) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	UNLV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#16	#46
SP+SP+	#29	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#15	#16
OffenseOff	#6	#20
DefenseDef	#40	#28
Spec TeamsST	#62	#47
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Boise State Notes(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report

UNLV Notes(12/30) Hired DC Z Arnett (MSU HC)
(12/12) Hired HC Dan Mullen? Feels like a lazy hire
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat Nevada = MWC title gm vs Boise
(11/18) Beat Haw,SDSU. Rgame/QB great, Def good
(10/26) Even w/ Boise, Run D good, TO and late D cost
(10/23) WR R White gets 44% of targets, #1 in CFB
(9/28) Killed Fresno, Rgame great, QB Williams eff
(9/25) QB Sluka no longer with team (redshirt/portal)
(9/13) 2-0 vs B12, great W at Kan. Outgained but TOs won
(9/1) Great W @ Houston, bullied lines, 195 (4.1) vs 38 (1.5)
(7/31) New QBs Sluka/Williams (FCS/mobiles) will be great
(7/31) Team is really good, sched is really rough
UNLV Injury Report

Boise State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNLV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#6	#28
SuccessSuc	#21	#65
ExplosiveExp	#32	#119
PPAPPA	#19	#115
PowerPwr	#10	#27
SP+SP+	#17	#55
Pts POPPO	#38	#94
HavocHav	#40	#125

Boise State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#1	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#10	#52
Run ExplRExp	#31	#42
PPAExp	#6	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#48	#115
TackleTak	-	#79

Boise State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#12	#133
PPAExp	#29	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#56
F7 HavocF7	#34	#113
DB HavocDB	#66	#128

UNLV on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#40
SuccessSuc	#58	#59
ExplosiveExp	#10	#111
PPAPPA	#38	#90
PowerPwr	#81	#22
SP+SP+	#31	#50
Pts POPPO	#40	#90
HavocHav	#25	#45

UNLV Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#19	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#79
Run ExplRExp	#3	#108
PPAExp	#40	#95
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#59
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#48
TackleTak	-	#134

UNLV Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#91
PPAExp	#30	#72
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#52
F7 HavocF7	#29	#34
DB HavocDB	#42	#72

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 15
Boise State -3.5 (57.5)
Boise State won at UNLV this year (21-7)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat UNLV last year (38-21)
Boise State beat UNLV in 2024 (21-7)
Boise State beat UNLV in 2023 (44-20)

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	374	2601	29	7.0	77
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Ahmed Hassanein	48	16	10	3	0
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	150	252	60%	1941	19	5	7.7
Matthew Sluka (Tr)	21	48	44%	318	6	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	161	915	7	5.7	54
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	161	851	9	5.3	71
Kylin James (Tr)	89	653	5	7.3	86
Greg Burrell	66	370	3	5.6	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	79	1041	11	13.2	55
Jacob De Jesus	36	512	3	14.2	43
Jaden Bradley (Tr)	9	173	1	19.2	42
Kaleo Ballungay	17	152	6	8.9	29

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Jett Elad	84	5	1	2	6
Jalen Catalon (Tr)	77	5	2	1	3
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	46	15	8	1	5
Antonio Doyle Jr. (Tr)	56	8	7	4	3
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10
Cameron Oliver	33	1	1	0	10