Hawai'i at San Diego State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
San Diego State -1.5 (47.5) (-115) Open: -4.0
San Diego State 27 - Hawai'i: 24 (Mountain West)

Rainbow Warriors (5 - 7) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Timmy Chang (8 - 18)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HAW coming off BYE
Our Line: Hawai'i -7 (SP+ HAW -4.5)
Projected Score: HAW: 27 - SDSU: 20 (48)
SDSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
HAW Travel: 2609 miles, 3 hrs behind

Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (31 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Hawai'i vs Delaware State	-38.5	57.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 8/31	Hawai'i vs UCLA	+13.5	55.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Hawai'i at Sam Houston	+3.5	48.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/21	Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa	-10.0	46.0	W 36 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+1.5	47.5	L 24 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/12	Hawai'i vs Boise State	+21.0	60.0	L 7 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Hawai'i at Washington State	+18.5	55.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/26	Hawai'i vs Nevada	-2.5	42.0	W 34 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+12.0	45.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+12.0	51.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Hawai'i at Utah State	-2.5	62.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	+6.5	61.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	San Diego State vs East Texas A&M	-16
Sat 9/7	San Diego State vs Oregon State	+5.5	54.5	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	San Diego State at California	+18.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	San Diego State at Central Michigan	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/5	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-1.5	47.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/12	San Diego State at Wyoming	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	San Diego State vs Washington State	+17.0	56.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/1	San Diego State at Boise State	+24.5	55.5	L 24 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/8	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-1.5	65.5	L 16 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	San Diego State at UNLV	+22.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/23	San Diego State at Utah State	+5.0	60.0	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	San Diego State vs Air Force	+6.5	43.5	L 20 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#94 (.14)	41% (82)	29	40% (98)	2.79 (119)	76	42% (64)	276	3.22 (111)	#102 (.24)	43% (84)	24.1	44% (77)	43% (88)	4.14 (101)	56.4	1.8	1.1
SDSU	#96 (.14)	42% (70)	26.4	43% (69)	3.08 (77)	154	41% (77)	172	3.2 (116)	#108 (.24)	47% (127)	15.4	53% (130)	43% (86)	3.38 (30)	44	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	13	29	25.8	41%	3.22	1.8	19	352	76	276	3.1	34%	65%	40%	42%	18%	.14
SDSU Defense	12	15.4	6.8	46.9%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	53%	43%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	13	24.1	35.4	43.2%	4.14	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	44%	43%	16%	.24
SDSU Offense	12	26.4	31.2	41.9%	3.2	1.4	17	326	154	172	4.1	56%	43%	43%	41%	15%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	13	29:39	19.3	37%	52%	6.2	56.4	1.8	1.1	5.2	1.7	0	29.1
San Diego State	12	32:47	17.2	35%	57%	4.9	44	1.4	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	31.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	13	34% (133)	40% (98)	24.9	76.1	3.1	6 (133)	.09 (103)	2.79 (119)	62% (126)	11% (90)	1 (67)
SDSU Defense	12	46% (22)	53% (130)	-	-	-	-	.27 (126)	3.44 (123)	83% (114)	8% (118)	0.93 (36)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	13	57% (127)	44% (77)	-	-	-	-	.17 (87)	3.16 (83)	75% (82)	10% (66)	1.06 (94)
SDSU Offense	12	56% (22)	43% (69)	37.8	154.3	4.1	16 (89)	.12 (85)	3.08 (77)	74% (66)	10% (67)	0.9 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	13	65% (2)	42% (64)	25.9	41.3	276.4	6.7	10.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.2 (94)	1.5 (104)	34% (96)	32% (62)	.33 (69)	7% (100)	2 (84)
SDSU Defense	12	52% (110)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (68)	1.5 (33)	28% (128)	32% (100)	.34 (80)	8% (18)	2 (40)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	13	43% (7)	43% (88)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.38 (114)	1.7 (110)	31% (89)	31% (80)	.4 (107)	6% (58)	2.1 (84)
SDSU Offense	12	43% (112)	41% (77)	16.8	26.6	171.8	6.5	10.2	10 (120)	10 (56)	.21 (91)	1.4 (125)	32% (69)	27% (100)	.1 (128)	5% (28)	1.6 (133)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.14 #84
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 22.60 #45
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 9.27 #68
2024 Talent Rating: 201.00 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Hawai'i's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Hawai'i's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.9 #107
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #108
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -5.14 San Diego State: -15.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -10.9 San Diego State: -15.4

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -15.23 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 297.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 27
San Diego State 20

Projected Total Points: 48

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.8

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Hawai'i	38	San Diego State	6	San Diego State -6.5	Hawai'i	48.5	Under
2024	10/05	San Diego State	27	Hawai'i	24	San Diego State -1.5	San Diego State	47.5	Over
2023	10/14	Hawai'i	34	San Diego State	41	San Diego State -6	San Diego State	51.5	Over
2022	10/08	San Diego State	16	Hawai'i	14	San Diego State -23.5	Hawai'i	48.5	Under
2021	11/06	Hawai'i	10	San Diego State	17	San Diego State -7	NA	45.0	Under
2020	11/14	San Diego State	34	Hawai'i	10	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	51.0	Under
2019	11/23	Hawai'i	14	San Diego State	11	Hawai'i -1	Hawai'i	47.0	Under
2018	11/24	San Diego State	30	Hawai'i	31	San Diego State -18	Hawai'i	54.0	Over
2017	10/28	Hawai'i	7	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -8	San Diego State	54.0	Under
2016	11/05	San Diego State	55	Hawai'i	0	San Diego State -19.5	San Diego State	50.5	Over
2015	10/10	Hawai'i	14	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -2	San Diego State	47.0	Under
2014	10/18	San Diego State	20	Hawai'i	10	San Diego State -10.5	Hawai'i	0
2013	11/16	Hawai'i	21	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -5	San Diego State	0
2012	10/06	San Diego State	52	Hawai'i	14
2005	12/03	Hawai'i	49	San Diego State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	11	7	4 Overs
Hawai'i	4	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	5 - 7	4 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 9	7 - 5	4 - 1	3 - 4

(#84) HAW at (#122) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#122
SP+SP+	#107	#119
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#108
OffenseOff	#107	#91
DefenseDef	#68	#116
Spec TeamsST	#91	#24
TalentTal	#115	#75
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#97

Hawai'i Notes(11/18) Killed by Utah St, QB's 5 INTs? Rgame awful
(11/3) 2 straight W's, big upset of Fresno. Corner turn?
(11/3) QB Schager was OK, Def outstanding in Fresno W
(10/27) Still Pass 64% Rgame good, 246 yds, 6.3 ypc (Nev)
(10/4) Off awful vs FBS so far. Def has been v good
(8/11) Star WR McBride suspended indefinitely
(7/30) Chang has most exp'd team and needs a good year
(7/30) 15 returning starters. QB Schager JAG+ / mobility
(7/30) WR's really good, OL exp'd, RB's meh
(7/30) 2 FCS games, need 7 wins to bowl in '24
(7/30) Def is exp'd and MW avg LY.
Hawai'i Injury Report

San Diego State Notes(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#116
SuccessSuc	#82	#127
ExplosiveExp	#45	#22
PPAPPA	#94	#108
PowerPwr	#45	#109
SP+SP+	#108	#104
Pts POPPO	#111	#30
HavocHav	#99	#79

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#87	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#98	#130
Run ExplRExp	#67	#36
PPAExp	#103	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#121
TackleTak	-	#125

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#33
PPAExp	#94	#68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#87
F7 HavocF7	#90	#118
DB HavocDB	#100	#18

San Diego State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#68
SuccessSuc	#70	#84
ExplosiveExp	#130	#97
PPAPPA	#96	#102
PowerPwr	#117	#68
SP+SP+	#122	#89
Pts POPPO	#116	#101
HavocHav	#49	#63

San Diego State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#118	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	#69	#77
Run ExplRExp	#111	#94
PPAExp	#85	#87
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#50	#60
TackleTak	-	#59

San Diego State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#88
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#110
PPAExp	#91	#114
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#106
F7 HavocF7	#67	#66
DB HavocDB	#28	#58

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
San Diego State -1.5 (47.5)
San Diego State won vs Hawai'i this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat San Diego State last year (38-6)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2024 (27-24)
San Diego State beat Hawai'i in 2023 (41-34)

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Schager	233	404	58%	2591	19	13	6.4
Micah Alejado	49	70	70%	585	6	0	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Sims	71	351	1	4.9	29
Brayden Schager	135	267	6	2.0	46
Tylan Hines	39	162	0	4.2	15
Cam Barfield (Tr)	33	158	0	4.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nicholas Cenacle	63	721	6	11.4	62
Pofele Ashlock	61	629	6	10.3	30
Dekel Crowdus (Tr)	16	402	4	25.1	74
Jonah Panoke	33	387	3	11.7	49

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2	0
Logan Taylor	52	1	0	0	0
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1	0
Peter Manuma	43	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jackie Johnson III	20	5	5	5
Elijah Robinson	51	11	5	1
Malachi Finau	19	4	3	1
Jamih Otis	55	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cameron Stone	38	3	8
Caleb Brown	24	2	7
Elijah Palmer	32	5	5

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Danny O'Neil	209	330	63%	2181	12	6	6.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson	20	39	51%	222	2	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Danny O'Neil	74	89	1	1.2	34
Cam Davis	14	76	0	5.4	38
Jaylon Armstead	13	42	0	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Louis Brown	38	620	3	16.3	44
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)	50	459	1	9.2	46
Jordan Napier	43	440	4	10.2	53
Nate Bennett (Tr)	22	314	1	14.3	48

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tano Letuli (Tr)	67	4	2	2	0
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Kyle Moretti (Tr)	58	3	1	0	0
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Tupu Alualu	21	5	4	0	0
Marlem Louis (Tr)	10	4	4	0	0
Ryan Henderson	12	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn McCuin	26	2	1	1	5
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Eric Butler	44	3	0	0	3