UNLV at Boise State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, December 6th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Boise State -3.5 (57.5) (-200) Open: -3.5 | 58.5
Boise State 21 - UNLV: 7 (Mountain West Championship)

Rebels (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (9 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 21 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 26.6°
BSU 2nd straight Home Game
BSU is playing their 7th straight game
UNLV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -8 (SP+ BSU -1)
Projected Score: UNLV: 24 - BSU: 32 (56)
BSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNLV Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs behind

Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNLV Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UNLV's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UNLV at Houston	+3.0	56.0	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UNLV vs Utah Tech	-41.5	55.5	W 72 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/13	UNLV vs Kansas	+7.0	57.0	W 23 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UNLV vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Fri 10/4	UNLV vs Syracuse	-5.5	55.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/11	UNLV at Utah State	-19.0	67.5	W 50 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/19	UNLV at Oregon State	-6.5	61.0	W 33 - 25	U	Y
Fri 10/25	UNLV vs Boise State	+4.0	64.0	L 24 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	UNLV at Hawai'i	-12.0	51.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/16	UNLV vs San Diego State	-22.0	55.5	W 41 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/22	UNLV at San José State	-7.5	59.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/30	UNLV vs Nevada	-17.5	54.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Fri 12/6	UNLV at Boise State	+3.5	57.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Wed 12/18	UNLV vs California	-3.0	45.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Boise State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Georgia Southern	-13.0	57.5	W 56 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/7	Boise State at Oregon	+17.5	60.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Boise State vs Portland State	-43.0	69.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Boise State vs Washington State	-6.5	66.0	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Boise State vs Utah State	-28.0	66.5	W 62 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State at Hawai'i	-21.0	60.0	W 28 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25	Boise State at UNLV	-4.0	64.0	W 29 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Boise State vs San Diego State	-24.5	55.5	W 56 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Nevada	-23.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State at San José State	-14.5	62.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Wyoming	-22.0	54.0	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/29	Boise State vs Oregon State	-17.5	58.5	W 34 - 18	U	N
Fri 12/6	Boise State vs UNLV	-3.5	57.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Boise State vs Penn State	+11.5	54.5	L 14 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)	35.4	43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)	21.3	40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)	37.3	49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)	22.6	39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)		43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)		40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Offense	14	35.4	28.8	41.7%	4.26	0.6	21	420	248	173	5.7	61%	39%	43%	40%	14%	.21
BSU Defense	14	22.6	19.7	38.2%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	39%	37%	20%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Defense	14	21.3	21.7	37.4%	4.05	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	40%	36%	19%	.11
BSU Offense	14	37.3	43.1	48.3%	4.83	0.6	22	437	234	204	6.5	55%	44%	49%	48%	12%	.36

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UNLV	14	29:59	21.1	40%	70%	5.6	49.2	0.6	1.6	6.3	2.6	4	34.7
Boise State	14	29:25	21.6	49%	71%	4.5	39.8	0.6	1.1	7.4	3.6	3	30.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense	14	61% (8)	43% (83)	43.5	247.8	5.7	29 (18)	.23 (23)	3.36 (16)	73% (71)	9% (58)	1.16 (9)
BSU Defense	14	43% (3)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.13 (72)	2.8 (34)	62% (12)	15% (3)	1.1 (113)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense	14	44% (8)	40% (39)	-	-	-	-	.11 (63)	2.63 (19)	73% (65)	10% (55)	1.08 (108)
BSU Offense	14	55% (31)	49% (17)	36.2	233.5	6.5	42 (3)	.32 (6)	3.22 (39)	86% (3)	7% (10)	1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense	14	39% (127)	40% (90)	12.7	22.1	172.6	7.8	13.6	25 (31)	6 (10)	.2 (94)	1.7 (32)	30% (43)	29% (93)	.26 (97)	5% (25)	2.1 (58)
BSU Defense	14	57% (133)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.18 (42)	1.7 (96)	36% (10)	30% (62)	.41 (105)	6% (83)	2.3 (124)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense	14	56% (128)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.13 (25)	1.5 (47)	36% (17)	25% (7)	.19 (24)	8% (9)	2.2 (106)
BSU Offense	14	44% (103)	48% (12)	17	27.1	203.9	7.5	12	22 (46)	4 (1)	.41 (12)	1.5 (119)	29% (23)	35% (28)	.37 (55)	6% (58)	1.9 (111)

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 4.14 #46
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.48 #81
UNLV's Defense Rating: 5.05 #27
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
UNLV's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
UNLV's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #36
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #31
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #55

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 4.14 Boise State: 14.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: 9.3 Boise State: 10.1

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.725 #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91 #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29 #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1 #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3 #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 35.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

UNLV's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 32
UNLV 24

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 26
UNLV 25

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 31
UNLV 27

Total Points: 58

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Boise State	56	UNLV	31	Boise State -12.5	Boise State	60.5	Over
2025	12/05	Boise State	38	UNLV	21	Boise State -6.0	Boise State	60.0	Under
2024	10/25	UNLV	24	Boise State	29	Boise State -4.0	Boise State	64.0	Under
2024	12/06	Boise State	21	UNLV	7	Boise State -3.5	Boise State	57.5	Under
2023	12/02	UNLV	20	Boise State	44	Boise State -2.5	Boise State	58.0	Over
2019	10/05	UNLV	13	Boise State	38	Boise State -24	Boise State	57.0	Under
2016	11/18	Boise State	42	UNLV	25	Boise State -26.5	UNLV	63.0	Over
2015	10/31	UNLV	27	Boise State	55	Boise State -21	Boise State	53.5	Over
2012	10/20	Boise State	32	UNLV	7
2011	11/05	UNLV	21	Boise State	48

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	10	7	4 Overs
UNLV	0	1	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 5	3 - 5	3 - 1	0 - 4
Road Teams	5 - 5	5 - 3	4 - 0	1 - 3

(#46) UNLV at (#16) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNLV	BSU
Power RatePwr	#46	#16
SP+SP+	#36	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#16	#15
OffenseOff	#20	#6
DefenseDef	#28	#40
Spec TeamsST	#47	#62
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

UNLV Notes(12/30) Hired DC Z Arnett (MSU HC)
(12/12) Hired HC Dan Mullen? Feels like a lazy hire
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat Nevada = MWC title gm vs Boise
(11/18) Beat Haw,SDSU. Rgame/QB great, Def good
(10/26) Even w/ Boise, Run D good, TO and late D cost
(10/23) WR R White gets 44% of targets, #1 in CFB
(9/28) Killed Fresno, Rgame great, QB Williams eff
(9/25) QB Sluka no longer with team (redshirt/portal)
(9/13) 2-0 vs B12, great W at Kan. Outgained but TOs won
(9/1) Great W @ Houston, bullied lines, 195 (4.1) vs 38 (1.5)
(7/31) New QBs Sluka/Williams (FCS/mobiles) will be great
(7/31) Team is really good, sched is really rough
UNLV Injury Report

Boise State Notes(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report

UNLV on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	BSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#20	#40
SuccessSuc	#84	#27
ExplosiveExp	#23	#119
PPAPPA	#56	#59
PowerPwr	#81	#22
SP+SP+	#31	#50
Pts POPPO	#33	#24
HavocHav	#41	#7

UNLV Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#19	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#33
Run ExplRExp	#9	#113
PPAExp	#23	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#16	#34
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#21
TackleTak	-	#134

UNLV Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#96
PPAExp	#94	#42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#7	#52
F7 HavocF7	#58	#3
DB HavocDB	#25	#83

Boise State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNLV Def
Perf GradePerf	#6	#28
SuccessSuc	#12	#14
ExplosiveExp	#37	#93
PPAPPA	#3	#34
PowerPwr	#10	#27
SP+SP+	#17	#55
Pts POPPO	#4	#97
HavocHav	#20	#27

Boise State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#1	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#39
Run ExplRExp	#5	#108
PPAExp	#6	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#58	#18
TackleTak	-	#79

Boise State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BSU Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#47
PPAExp	#12	#25
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#56
F7 HavocF7	#10	#55
DB HavocDB	#58	#9

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 27°

Rematch from Week 15
Boise State -3.5 (57.5)
Boise State won vs UNLV this year (21-7)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat UNLV last year (21-7)
Boise State beat UNLV in 2023 (44-20)

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	150	252	60%	1941	19	5	7.7
Matthew Sluka (Tr)	21	48	44%	318	6	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	161	915	7	5.7	54
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	161	851	9	5.3	71
Kylin James (Tr)	89	653	5	7.3	86
Greg Burrell	66	370	3	5.6	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	79	1041	11	13.2	55
Jacob De Jesus	36	512	3	14.2	43
Jaden Bradley (Tr)	9	173	1	19.2	42
Kaleo Ballungay	17	152	6	8.9	29

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Jett Elad	84	5	1	2	6
Jalen Catalon (Tr)	77	5	2	1	3
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	46	15	8	1	5
Antonio Doyle Jr. (Tr)	56	8	7	4	3
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10
Cameron Oliver	33	1	1	0	10

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maddux Madsen	247	396	62%	3018	23	6	7.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)	12	17	71%	128	0	1	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Jeanty	374	2601	29	7.0	77
Maddux Madsen	57	221	5	3.9	49
Sire Gaines	20	156	1	7.8	38
Dylan Riley	22	135	2	6.1	64

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Camper (Tr)	58	903	4	15.6	53
Matt Lauter	48	629	7	13.1	53
Latrell Caples	38	473	5	12.4	36
Prince Strachan	25	304	1	12.2	37

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Benefield	82	5	0	1	3
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Zion Washington	67	4	0	0	6
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	0	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Virgin	40	16	10	5	0
Ahmed Hassanein	48	16	10	3	0
Seyi Oladipo	68	11	7	1	2
Braxton Fely	24	9	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A'Marion McCoy	60	2	1	12
Zion Washington	67	4	0	6
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)	34	1	0	6