Utah State at Boise State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -28 (66.5) (-6500)  Open: -25.0
Boise State 62 - Utah State: 30  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (25 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BSU 3rd straight Home Game
USU coming off BYE
Our Line: Boise State -26  (SP+ BSU -21)

Projected Score: USU: 20 - BSU: 46 (66)
BSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
USU Travel: 257 miles
Broncos (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Spencer Danielson (3 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Utah State vs Robert Morris-18.5
Sat 9/7 Utah State at USC+30.562.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/14 Utah State vs Utah+20.543.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/21 Utah State at Temple-6.553.5L 29 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Utah State at Boise State+28.066.5L 30 - 62ON
Fri 10/11 Utah State vs UNLV+19.067.5L 34 - 50OY
Sat 10/19 Utah State vs New Mexico+1.078.5L 45 - 50ON
Sat 10/26 Utah State at Wyoming-2.557.0W 27 - 25UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Utah State at Washington State+20.569.0L 28 - 49ON
Sat 11/16 Utah State vs Hawai'i+2.562.0W 55 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Utah State vs San Diego State-5.060.0W 41 - 20OY
Fri 11/29 Utah State at Colorado State+5.556.5L 37 - 42OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Boise State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Boise State at Georgia Southern-13.057.5W 56 - 45ON
Sat 9/7 Boise State at Oregon+17.560.5L 34 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Boise State vs Portland State-43.069.5W 56 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Boise State vs Washington State-6.566.0W 45 - 24OY
Sat 10/5 Boise State vs Utah State-28.066.5W 62 - 30OY
Sat 10/12 Boise State at Hawai'i-21.060.0W 28 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/25 Boise State at UNLV-4.064.0W 29 - 24UY
Fri 11/1 Boise State vs San Diego State-24.555.5W 56 - 24OY
Sat 11/9 Boise State vs Nevada-23.560.5W 28 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 Boise State at San José State-14.562.0W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/23 Boise State at Wyoming-22.054.0W 17 - 13UN
Fri 11/29 Boise State vs Oregon State-17.558.5W 34 - 18UN
Fri 12/6 Boise State vs UNLV-3.557.5W 21 - 7UY
Tue 12/31 Boise State vs Penn State+11.554.5L 14 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)31.948% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)37.848% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)37.349% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)22.639% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)49% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)39% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1231.925.245.6%4.421.8234681992695.746%54%48%44%16%.24
BSU Defense1422.619.738.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1237.845.247.4%4.441.3 - - - - - 51%49%48%48%15%.27
BSU Offense1437.343.148.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1227:1922.540%50%7.873.81.81.362.3128.1
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1246% (102)48% (24)35.1199.35.721 (59).26 (13)3.41 (12)65% (117)8% (39)1.11 (18)
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1251% (69)48% (112) - - - - .25 (124)3.45 (128)76% (85)10% (70)0.96 (56)
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1254% (36)44% (37)24.538.2269.17.11129 (12)17 (127).25 (69)1.5 (118)29% (30)33% (54).4 (38)8% (124)2.1 (31)
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1249% (64)48% (123) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (106)1.5 (30)27% (129)32% (97).32 (75)5% (99)1.8 (21)
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -12.03  #105
Utah State's Offense Rating: 24.87  #19
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.16  #123
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #53
Utah State's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Utah State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.4  #106
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #45
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #129

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -12.03   Boise State: 14.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -10.4   Boise State: 10.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 14.725  #16
Boise State's Offense Rating: 26.91  #10
Boise State's Defense Rating: 4.29  #22
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #74
Boise State's 2024 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Boise State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.1  #29
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.3  #17
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #50

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.2

Utah State's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 46
Utah State 20


Total Points: 66

Based on Last 4 Games
Boise State 43
Utah State 20

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Boise State 41
Utah State 25

Total Points: 66
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2024 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28Utah State24Boise State25Boise State -1.5Utah State54.5Under
202410/05Boise State62Utah State30Boise State -28Boise State66.5Over
202311/18Utah State10Boise State45Boise State -5.5Boise State62.5Under
202211/25Boise State42Utah State23Boise State -17Boise State51.5Over
202109/25Utah State3Boise State27Boise State -9.5Boise State69.5Under
202010/24Boise State42Utah State13Boise State -17Boise State51.0Over
201911/23Utah State21Boise State56Boise State -9.5Boise State53.0Over
201811/24Boise State33Utah State24Boise State -2.5Boise State65.0Under
201710/28Utah State14Boise State41Boise State -13Boise State51.5Over
201610/01Boise State21Utah State10Boise State -19.5Utah State60.5Under
201510/16Utah State52Boise State26Boise State -8.5Utah State50.5Over
201411/29Boise State50Utah State19Boise State -9Boise State0
201310/12Utah State23Boise State34Boise State -7.5Boise State0
201012/04Boise State50Utah State14
200911/20Utah State21Boise State52
200811/08Boise State49Utah State14
200711/10Utah State0Boise State52
200611/18Boise State49Utah State10
200510/22Utah State21Boise State45
200209/28Boise State63Utah State38
200011/10Boise State66Utah State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State20106 Overs
Utah State135 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 97 - 65 - 12 - 5
Road Teams9 - 126 - 75 - 21 - 5

(#105) USU at (#16) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSUBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #105 #16
SP+SP+ #106 #29
Perf GradeGrade #116 #15
OffenseOff #102 #6
DefenseDef #124 #40
Spec TeamsST #34 #62
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #53 #74
Utah State Notes
(12/6) Hired HC Mendenhall, last at NM for 1 yr
(11/29) Rgame great vs CSU, 296/6.0. Pass D torched in L
(11/18) 5 INT's vs Hawaii, Rgame great (321, 7.6 ypc)
(11/9) Top WR Jalen Royals out for season (foot)
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#130) into week 9
(10/20) Petras 360 yds (NM), forced 4 TOs in near upset
(10/16) Monitor for quit watch. Def/Int Coach/Bad vibes
(10/11) Def is likely worst in CFB. #130+ all metrics
(10/10) Def is awful. Worst 2nd quarter D (nearly 21 ppg!)
(10/10) QB now Petras, hasn't been as awful as expected
(8/4) Portal lost #2 WR Davis (Ole Miss) this late??
(7/31) HC fired, Def awful, where does this go?
Utah State Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(11/29) Beat down Beavs, Jeanty great, Madsen meh
(11/25) Awful perf vs Wym, Jeanty hurt? In MWC title
(11/18) Rgame OK, QB good, Pass D torched in SJSU W
(11/3) Maddux torched SDSU, coming on. Def meh
(10/26) Even w/ UNLV, Madsen was avg but no TOs
(9/8) QB Madsen brutal vs Oreg. Def held up well
(9/1) Jeanty torched GSU, Def was really bad though
(8/18) QB Madson (PT LY) beat out 5* Nelson (USC)
(8/11) Top 5/6 WR return along with good TE
(7/30) One of best G5 backfields + 3/5 of OL back.
(7/30) HC Danielson 1st full year, OC is Dirk Koetter
(7/30) MW Fav/G5 Co-Favs. TD+ favs in all but Oregon
Boise State Injury Report
Utah State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
USU OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #102 #40
SuccessSuc #31 #27
ExplosiveExp #59 #119
PPAPPA #34 #59
PowerPwr #19 #22
SP+SP+ #45 #50
Pts POPPO #24 #24
HavocHav #81 #7
Utah State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
USU OffBSU Def
Run GameRun #22 #58
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #33
Run ExplRExp #18 #113
PPAExp #13 #72
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #12 #34
Stuff RateStuff #46 #21
TackleTak -  #134
Utah State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
USU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePass #90 #38
Pass SuccessPSuc #37 #29
Pass ExplPExl #118 #96
PPAExp #69 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #76 #52
F7 HavocF7 #39 #3
DB HavocDB #124 #83
Boise State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBSU OffUSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #6 #124
SuccessSuc #12 #122
ExplosiveExp #37 #42
PPAPPA #3 #119
PowerPwr #10 #123
SP+SP+ #17 #129
Pts POPPO #4 #122
HavocHav #20 #81
Boise State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUSU Def
Run GameRun #1 #135
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #112
Run ExplRExp #5 #56
PPAExp #6 #124
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #128
Stuff RateStuff #58 #95
TackleTak -  #107
Boise State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatBSU OffUSU Def
Pass GamePass #47 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #123
Pass ExplPExl #119 #30
PPAExp #12 #106
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #94
F7 HavocF7 #10 #70
DB HavocDB #58 #99
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Boise State -28.0 (66.5)
Boise State won vs Utah State this year (62-30)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Utah State last year (62-30)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2023 (45-10)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2022 (42-23)

  
USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Spencer Petras (Tr)21432765%231517117.1
Bryson Barnes (Tr)7712661%8561266.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rahsul Faison198110985.637
Bryson Barnes (Tr)6853057.863
Herschel Turner7940545.143
Derrick Jameson1514029.372
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Royals55834615.275
Kyrese Rowan44526312.057
Otto Tia4443479.951
Jack Hestera (Tr)24340414.232

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)1171012
Ike Larsen802009
Jon Ross Maye574031
John Miller (Tr)526242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cian Slone4910850
Bronson Olevao234430
Lawrence Falatea (Tr)286330
John Miller (Tr)526242
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ike Larsen802009
Avante Dickerson192003
D.J. Graham423002

BSU's OC Dirk Koetter (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Malachi Nelson (Tr)121771%128017.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashton Jeanty3742601297.077
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Camper (Tr)58903415.653
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Prince Strachan25304112.237

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Seyi Oladipo6811712
Zion Washington674006
A'Marion McCoy6020112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Ahmed Hassanein48161030
Seyi Oladipo6811712
Braxton Fely249610
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Zion Washington674006
Jeremiah Earby (Tr)341006