Fresno State at New Mexico Game Matchup

Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (8:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -12 (61.0) (-485) Open: 0.0
Fresno State 38 - New Mexico: 21 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 19.9 MPH
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -9 (SP+ FRES -11)
Projected Score: FRES: 36 - UNM: 27 (61)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
FRES Travel: 744 miles, 1 hrs behind

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (37 - 39 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	26.1	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	24.8	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	33.5	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	38	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	26.1	21.2	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22
UNM Defense	12	38	38.8	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	24.8	31.2	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18
UNM Offense	12	33.5	37.4	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40 New Mexico: -13.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8 New Mexico: -14.8

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -13.95 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 262.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 36
New Mexico 27

Projected Total Points: 61

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.4
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.8

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	New Mexico	21	Fresno State	38	Fresno State	Fresno State -12	Fresno State	61.0	Under
2023	11/18	Fresno State	17	New Mexico	25	New Mexico	Fresno State -22.5	New Mexico	58.5	Under
2022	10/22	New Mexico	9	Fresno State	41	Fresno State	Fresno State -9.5	Fresno State	40.0	Over
2021	11/13	Fresno State	34	New Mexico	7	Fresno State	Fresno State -24	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2020	12/12	New Mexico	49	Fresno State	39	New Mexico	Fresno State -15	New Mexico	56.5	Over
2018	10/20	New Mexico	7	Fresno State	38	Fresno State	Fresno State -14	Fresno State	52.5	Under
2017	10/14	Fresno State	38	New Mexico	0	Fresno State	New Mexico -2.5	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2014	09/26	New Mexico	24	Fresno State	35	Fresno State	Fresno State -3	Fresno State	0
2013	11/23	Fresno State	69	New Mexico	28	Fresno State	Fresno State -31	Fresno State	0
2012	10/27	New Mexico	32	Fresno State	49	Fresno State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	2	2	2 Overs
Fresno State	8	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	4 - 5	2 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 4	5 - 4	4 - 2	1 - 2

(#87) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best

Fresno State Ratings Matchup New Mexico

Power #87

#118

Off #95

#30

Def #33

#128

Talent #88

#128

SP+ #85

#116

SP+ Off #85

#64

SP+ Def #77

#132

Rematch from Week 4
Fresno State 12.0 (61.0)
Fresno State won at New Mexico this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico last year (38-21)
New Mexico beat Fresno State in 2023 (25-17)
Fresno State beat New Mexico in 2022 (41-9)

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 65° - Wind: 20 mph

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | UNM
Depth Chart: FRES | UNM
Rosters: FRES | UNM

(#118) New Mexico Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -13.95 #118
Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132
Talent Rating: 262.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 49%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

New Mexico Notes
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71
Richie Anderson	17	147	0	8.6	18

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Jayden Davis	46	1	0	0	2
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Kosi Agina	38	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1
Jacob Holmes	17	3	2	3	0
Sione Noa	15	3	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Julian Neal	32	4	1	0	4

New Mexico's OC Jason Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43
Trace Bruckler	22	138	2	6.3	12

View New Mexico's Full Roster

New Mexico's DC Nick Howell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	0	0	10
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4