New Mexico State at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -19.5 (48.5) (-1600) Open: -20.0 | 48.5
Fresno State 48 - New Mexico State: 0

Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -19 (SP+ FRES -15)
Projected Score: NMSU: 18 - FRES: 37 (54)
FRES Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
NMSU Travel: 803 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State	-9.5	52.5	W 23 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/7	New Mexico State vs Liberty	+22.5	54.5	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/14	New Mexico State at Fresno State	+19.5	48.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico State at Sam Houston	+15.5	44.5	L 11 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+9.5	54.0	L 40 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9	New Mexico State at Jacksonville State	+21.0	58.5	L 13 - 54	O	N
Tue 10/15	New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech	+12.5	49.0	W 33 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	New Mexico State vs Florida International	+7.0	43.5	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/9	New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky	+18.0	53.5	L 28 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico State at Texas A&M	+38.5	54.5	L 3 - 38	U	Y
Sat 11/23	New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	54.0	W 36 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	New Mexico State vs UTEP	-3.5	51.5	L 35 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)	21.6	46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)	36.3	43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	26.1	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	24.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	12.6	39.3%	3.8	1.9	19	322	179	143	4.4	58%	42%	46%	30%	18%	.08
FRES Defense	13	24.8	18	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	36.3	38.4	41.3%	3.7	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	43%	40%	12%	.26
FRES Offense	13	26.1	32	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	29:26	19.3	38%	38%	5.4	48.1	1.9	0.8	3.8	1.2	1	27
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	58% (20)	46% (41)	41.3	179.3	4.4	16 (90)	.11 (81)	3.33 (21)	77% (37)	11% (103)	0.98 (61)
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	50% (55)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.18 (98)	3.17 (93)	58% (5)	7% (134)	1.04 (95)
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	42% (116)	30% (132)	11.8	26.7	143.2	5.4	12.2	12 (118)	12 (85)	.05 (128)	1.8 (17)	33% (100)	30% (87)	.13 (131)	7% (104)	1.7 (132)
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	50% (76)	40% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.36 (118)	1.9 (132)	31% (80)	29% (42)	.42 (107)	6% (78)	2.3 (126)
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -24.23 #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.23 Fresno State: -2.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -19.0 Fresno State: -3.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 37
New Mexico State 18

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 37
New Mexico State 30

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 33
New Mexico State 19

Total Points: 52

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Fresno State	48	New Mexico State	0	Fresno State -19.5	Fresno State	48.5	Under
2023	12/16	Fresno State	37	New Mexico State	10	New Mexico State -3.0	Fresno State	52.5	Under
2019	09/28	New Mexico State	17	Fresno State	30	Fresno State -20	New Mexico State	63.5	Under
2011	11/12	New Mexico State	48	Fresno State	45
2010	10/16	Fresno State	33	New Mexico State	10
2009	10/24	New Mexico State	3	Fresno State	34
2008	11/15	Fresno State	24	New Mexico State	17
2007	11/30	New Mexico State	23	Fresno State	30
2006	11/11	Fresno State	23	New Mexico State	18
2005	10/08	New Mexico State	7	Fresno State	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	9	2	0 Overs
New Mexico State	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 4	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 6	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

(#129) NMSU at (#87) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#129	#87
SP+SP+	#125	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#87
OffenseOff	#130	#74
DefenseDef	#108	#88
Spec TeamsST	#72	#130
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#82

New Mexico State Notes(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#130	#88
SuccessSuc	#106	#51
ExplosiveExp	#95	#13
PPAPPA	#119	#17
PowerPwr	#111	#33
SP+SP+	#120	#77
Pts POPPO	#82	#47
HavocHav	#112	#113

New Mexico State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#102	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#74
Run ExplRExp	#61	#7
PPAExp	#81	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#28	#65
TackleTak	-	#79

New Mexico State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#17	#34
PPAExp	#128	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#103	#105
F7 HavocF7	#103	#121
DB HavocDB	#104	#65

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#108
SuccessSuc	#110	#64
ExplosiveExp	#38	#127
PPAPPA	#110	#115
PowerPwr	#95	#119
SP+SP+	#85	#127
Pts POPPO	#91	#60
HavocHav	#34	#128

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#117	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#69
Run ExplRExp	#76	#95
PPAExp	#111	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#93
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#66
TackleTak	-	#68

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#96
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#68
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#132
PPAExp	#89	#118
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#130
F7 HavocF7	#34	#134
DB HavocDB	#64	#78

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Fresno State -19.5 (48.5)
Fresno State won vs New Mexico State this year (48-0)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat New Mexico State last year (48-0)
Fresno State beat New Mexico State in 2023 (37-10)

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)	49	112	44%	519	3	5	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Seth McGowan	153	813	3	5.3	38
Michael Washington	158	713	8	4.5	47
Santino Marucci (Tr)	37	131	1	3.5	38
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Seth McGowan	23	277	3	12.0	43
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Da'Marcus Crosby	81	2	0	0	3
Tayden Barnes	57	2	0	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Kale Edwards (Tr)	36	7	4	4	0
Noah Arinze	16	5	3	1	0
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)	36	3	1	6
Tayden Barnes	57	2	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4