Montana State at New Mexico - 2024 Matchup Preview
Montana State logo Montana State Bobcats at New Mexico LobosNew Mexico logo
Saturday, August 24th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Montana State -10.5 (54.0) (-470)  Open: -9.0 | 53.5
Montana State 35 - New Mexico: 31

 
Bobcats (1 - 0) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 31 (35 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -14  (SP+ UNM -15)
MTST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (37 - 39 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Montana State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Montana State at New Mexico-10.554.0W 35 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Montana State's Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 New Mexico vs Montana State+10.554.0L 31 - 35OY
Sat 8/31 New Mexico at Arizona+28.060.0L 39 - 61OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 New Mexico at Auburn+25.558.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/21 New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.061.0L 21 - 38UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.554.0W 50 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 New Mexico vs Air Force-7.056.0W 52 - 37OY
Sat 10/19 New Mexico at Utah State-1.078.5W 50 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 New Mexico at Colorado State+3.562.0L 6 - 17UN
Sat 11/2 New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.560.5L 45 - 49ON
Fri 11/8 New Mexico at San Diego State+1.565.5W 21 - 16UY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico vs Washington State+10.572.5W 38 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.561.5L 30 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTST0%350%000%000%310%0%0000
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)33.553% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)3850% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTST Offense135350%00000000%0%0%0%0%
UNM Defense123838.850.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTST Defense131310%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
UNM Offense1233.537.448.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Montana State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTST Offense10%0%000000%0%0
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTST Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTST Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTST Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)

Montana State's Power Ratings
Montana State's Power Rating: NR
Montana State's Offense Rating: NR
Montana State's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Montana State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Montana State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Montana State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Montana State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Montana State:    New Mexico: -13.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Montana State:    New Mexico: -14.8




New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -13.95  #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67  #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73  #128
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6  #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5  #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Montana State Scoring
Offense: 35 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Montana State's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Montana State 33
New Mexico 32

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 31
Montana State 28

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Montana State 37
New Mexico 33

Total Points: 70
New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.4
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.8

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/24New Mexico31Montana State35Montana State -10.5New Mexico54.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico011 Overs
Montana State100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#NR) MTST at (#118) UNM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSTUNM
Power RatePwrNR #118
SP+SP+NR #116
Perf GradeGradeNR #92
OffenseOffNR #17
DefenseDefNR #134
Spec TeamsSTNR #135
TalentTalNR #1
Blue ChipsBC%NR #74
New Mexico Notes
(12/14) HC Mendenhall left for Utah State
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg
(9/10) Defense is worst in CFB. Maybe historically bad.
New Mexico Injury Report
Montana State on Offense
CategoryCat
MTST OffUNM Def
Perf GradePerfNR #134
SuccessSucNR #132
ExplosiveExpNR #68
PPAPPANR #132
PowerPwrNR #128
SP+SP+NR #132
Pts POPPONR #128
HavocHavNR #114
Montana State Run Game
CategoryCat
MTST OffUNM Def
Run GameRunNR #127
Run SuccessRSucNR #125
Run ExplRExpNR #64
PPAExpNR #110
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #103
Stuff RateStuffNR #94
TackleTak -  #115
Montana State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MTST OffUNM Def
Pass GamePassNR #116
Pass SuccessPSucNR #131
Pass ExplPExlNR #81
PPAExpNR #132
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #135
F7 HavocF7NR #118
DB HavocDBNR #79
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUNM OffMTST Def
Perf GradePerf #17NR
SuccessSuc #10NR
ExplosiveExp #86NR
PPAPPA #14NR
PowerPwr #30NR
SP+SP+ #64NR
Pts POPPO #79NR
HavocHav #12NR
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNM OffMTST Def
Run GameRun #5NR
Run SuccessRSuc #3NR
Run ExplRExp #21NR
PPAExp #1NR
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #1NR
Stuff RateStuff #3NR
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatUNM OffMTST Def
Pass GamePass #30NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #40NR
Pass ExplPExl #125NR
PPAExp #77NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #22NR
F7 HavocF7 #1NR
DB HavocDB #85NR
Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MTST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 89° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Montana State 10.5 (54.0)
Montana State won at New Mexico this year (35-31)

Previous Matchups
Montana State beat New Mexico last year (35-31)

  
MTST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tommy Mellott18227666%24832729.0
Chance Wilson102246%141006.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey1881291156.979
Adam Jones1681040126.293
Tommy Mellott1151018158.976
Colson Coon5534116.250
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Taco Dowler33522915.872
Ty McCullouch38471412.461
Rohan Jones30469915.670
Lonyatta Alexander22264012.037

View Montana State's Full Roster

MTST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
McCade O'Reilly102011
Danny Uluilakepa92000
Rylan Ortt70000
Caden Dowler50000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
McCade O'Reilly102011
Bryce Grebe21000
Luke Smith10000
Hunter Parsons11000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
McCade O'Reilly102011
Miles Jackson20001
Bryce Grebe21000

UNM's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devon Dampier22639058%276812127.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devon Dampier1561152197.485
Eli Sanders (Tr)147106497.275
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)7438255.229
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4027736.950
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luke Wysong69840112.253
Ryan Davis54747313.855
Caleb Medford18336318.747
Nic Trujillo16305119.143

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Ellis934824
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005
Randolph Kpai (Tr)805153
Dmitri Johnson775212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Ellis934824
Moso'oipala Tuitele356420
Dmitri Johnson775212
Jayden Wilson323220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Taylor5620010
Noa Pola-Gates500007
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005