Montana State at New Mexico - 2024 Matchup Preview

Montana State Bobcats at New Mexico Lobos

Saturday, August 24th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Montana State -10.5 (54.0) (-470) Open: -9.0 | 53.5
Montana State 35 - New Mexico: 31

Bobcats (1 - 0) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 35 - 31 (35 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -14 (SP+ UNM -15)
MTST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (37 - 39 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTST Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Montana State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Montana State at New Mexico	-10.5	54.0	W 35 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Montana State's Schedule

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTST		0%	35	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	31	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)	33.5	53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)	38	50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTST Offense	1	35	35	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UNM Defense	12	38	38.8	50.4%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	51%	14%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTST Defense	1	31	31	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UNM Offense	12	33.5	37.4	48.9%	3.83	1.6	25	485	254	231	6.7	52%	48%	53%	44%	12%	.31

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Montana State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
New Mexico	12	28:52	24.7	43%	68%	9.3	81.5	1.6	0.8	3.9	1.6	1	26.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
UNM Defense	12	54% (106)	50% (125)	-	-	-	-	.2 (110)	3.26 (103)	71% (52)	8% (118)	0.97 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
UNM Offense	12	52% (55)	53% (3)	37.8	254	6.7	37 (6)	.37 (1)	3.81 (1)	81% (20)	5% (1)	1.1 (21)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
UNM Defense	12	46% (30)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.51 (132)	1.6 (81)	26% (132)	38% (129)	.54 (129)	6% (79)	2.2 (118)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
UNM Offense	12	48% (77)	44% (40)	18.8	32.5	230.7	7.1	12.3	12 (118)	12 (85)	.24 (77)	1.4 (125)	27% (8)	37% (11)	.49 (13)	6% (85)	1.9 (110)

Montana State's Power Ratings
Montana State's Power Rating: #NR
Montana State's Offense Rating: #NR
Montana State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Montana State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Montana State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Montana State's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Montana State's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Montana State: New Mexico: -13.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Montana State: New Mexico: -14.8

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -13.95 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Montana State Scoring
Offense: 35 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Montana State's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Montana State 37
New Mexico 33

Total Points: 70

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.4
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.8

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/24	New Mexico	31	Montana State	35	Montana State	Montana State -10.5	New Mexico	54.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	0	1	1 Overs
Montana State	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#NR) Montana State Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Montana State Highlights
Montana State in Undefeated

Montana State Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	UNM	MTST
OverallOver	#66	—
OffenseOff	#16	—
DefenseDef	#113	—
Special TeamsST	#112	—
PassingPass	#25	—
RushingRush	#5	—
Run BlockRBLK	#24	—
Pass BlockPBLK	#22	—
Route RunningWR Rt	#47	—
TacklingTkl	#100	—
Run DefenseR Def	#102	—
Pass Rush DefPRush	#114	—
Coverage DefCov	#94	—

Rematch from Week 1
Montana State 10.5 (54.0)
Montana State won at New Mexico this year (35-31)

Previous Matchups
Montana State beat New Mexico last year (35-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MTST | UNM
Depth Chart: MTST | UNM
Rosters: MTST | UNM

(#118) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -13.95 #118
Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 49%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 3 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

New Mexico Notes
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico has Really Good Running Game (#41)
New Mexico offense is efficent (#108)
New Mexico has a top Offensive Line (#79)
New Mexico does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#24)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico Commits a Lot of Penalties (#1)
New Mexico Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
New Mexico Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
New Mexico has a bad defense (#98)
New Mexico has a bad defensive line (#82)
New Mexico has a bad red zone defense (#43)

Montana State's OC

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tommy Mellott	182	276	66%	2483	27	2	9.0
Chance Wilson	10	22	46%	141	0	0	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Scottre Humphrey	188	1291	15	6.9	79
Adam Jones	168	1040	12	6.2	93
Tommy Mellott	115	1018	15	8.9	76
Colson Coon	55	341	1	6.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Taco Dowler	33	522	9	15.8	72
Ty McCullouch	38	471	4	12.4	61
Rohan Jones	30	469	9	15.6	70
Lonyatta Alexander	22	264	0	12.0	37

View Montana State's Full Roster

Montana State's DC

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
McCade O'Reilly	10	2	1	1
Danny Uluilakepa	9	2	0	0
Rylan Ortt	7	0	0	0
Caden Dowler	5	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
McCade O'Reilly	10	2	1	1
Bryce Grebe	2	1	0	0
Luke Smith	1	0	0	0
Hunter Parsons	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
McCade O'Reilly	10	2	1	1
Miles Jackson	2	0	0	1
Bryce Grebe	2	1	0	0

New Mexico's OC Jason Beck

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Ryan Davis	54	747	3	13.8	55
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43

View New Mexico's Full Roster

New Mexico's DC Nick Howell

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	10
Noa Pola-Gates	50	0	7
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	5