Fresno State at UCLA - 2024 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at UCLA BruinsUCLA logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
UCLA -7.5 (46.5) (-320)  Open: -9.5 | 46.5
UCLA 20 - Fresno State: 13

 
Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UCLA 2nd straight Home Game
UCLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: UCLA -7   (SP+ UCLA -3)

Projected Score: FRES: 20 - UCLA: 27 (47)
UCLA Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 204 miles
Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 25 (16 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Fresno State at Michigan+21.048.0L 10 - 30UY
Sat 9/7 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.555.5W 46 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.548.5W 48 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Fresno State at New Mexico-12.061.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Fresno State at UNLV+2.551.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Fresno State vs Washington State+3.560.5L 17 - 25UN
Fri 10/18 Fresno State at Nevada-3.050.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Fresno State vs San José State-6.555.0W 33 - 10UY
Sat 11/2 Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.045.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 11/9 Fresno State at Air Force-9.540.5L 28 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.543.5W 28 - 22OY
Sat 11/30 Fresno State at UCLA+7.546.5L 13 - 20UY
Mon 12/23 Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
UCLA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 UCLA at Hawai'i-13.555.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 UCLA vs Indiana+3.546.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 9/21 UCLA at LSU+21.556.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/28 UCLA vs Oregon+23.554.5L 13 - 34UY
Sat 10/5 UCLA at Penn State+30.048.0L 11 - 27UY
Sat 10/12 UCLA vs Minnesota+3.539.0L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/19 UCLA at Rutgers+4.042.5W 35 - 32OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 UCLA at Nebraska+7.538.5W 27 - 20OY
Fri 11/8 UCLA vs Iowa+6.544.5W 20 - 17UY
Fri 11/15 UCLA at Washington+4.547.0L 19 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 UCLA vs USC+5.053.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 11/30 UCLA vs Fresno State-7.546.5W 20 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)18.434% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)25.345% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
UCLA#99 (.14)39% (112)34% (131)2.47 (132)8743% (56)2423.15 (123)#68 (.16)46% (110)45% (83)47% (120)4.45 (123)68.91.41.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1326.121.239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11
UCLA Defense1225.324.345.9%4.451.1 - - - - - 43%57%45%47%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1324.831.240.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
UCLA Offense1218.41639%3.151.418329872423.141%59%34%43%17%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
UCLA1231:071843%50%8.268.91.41.15.31.8227.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)
UCLA Defense1243% (2)45% (83) - - - - .05 (30)2.92 (52)78% (101)10% (68)0.72 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
UCLA Offense1241% (122)34% (131)2886.93.14 (133)-.05 (129)2.47 (132)70% (87)10% (85)0.94 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)
UCLA Defense1257% (132)47% (120) - - - - - - 10 (66).26 (82)1.4 (15)30% (100)33% (106).31 (70)8% (8)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
UCLA Offense1259% (12)43% (56)21.633.2242.27.311.217 (79)11 (72).26 (62)1.5 (95)36% (126)36% (21).42 (30)7% (99)1.9 (102)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40   UCLA: 2.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8   UCLA: -1.3




UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 2.12 #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UCLA 27
Fresno State 20


Total Points: 47

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30UCLA20Fresno State13UCLAUCLA -7.5Fresno State46.5Under
202109/18UCLA37Fresno State40Fresno StateUCLA -11Fresno State64.0Over
201809/15UCLA14Fresno State38Fresno StateFresno State -2.5Fresno State50.5Over
200809/27UCLA31Fresno State36Fresno State
200312/30Fresno State17UCLA9Fresno State
200009/08UCLA24Fresno State21UCLA
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCLA202 Overs
Fresno State431 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 30 - 30 - 20 - 1
Road Teams3 - 33 - 01 - 02 - 0

(#87) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State has won 1 straight
Fresno State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State defense does not give up big plays (#67)
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State Can Not Run the Ball (#5)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State offense is really bad (#64)
Fresno State run game is really bad (#70)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUCLAFRES
OverallOver#78#61
OffenseOff#92#60
DefenseDef#71#68
Special TeamsST#74#107
PassingPass#64#43
RushingRush#99#85
Run BlockRBLK#85#31
Pass BlockPBLK#106#65
Route RunningWR Rt#58#52
TacklingTkl#48#69
Run DefenseR Def#77#70
Pass Rush DefPRush#99#89
Coverage DefCov#41#45

Rematch from Week 14
UCLA -7.5 (46.5)
UCLA won vs Fresno State this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
UCLA beat Fresno State last year (20-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | UCLA
Depth Chart: FRES | UCLA
Rosters: FRES | UCLA
(#61) UCLA Info
Power Rating: 2.12 #61
Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

UCLA has lost 2 straight
UCLA has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

UCLA Notes
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date

UCLA Highlights
UCLA defense does not give up big plays (#15)
UCLA Secondary is very good (#136)

UCLA Deficiencies
UCLA has a really bad Offense
UCLA has a really bad Offense at Home
UCLA Can Not Run the Ball (#102)
UCLA Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
UCLA offense is really bad (#70)
UCLA Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#46)
UCLA offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#86)
UCLA run game is really bad (#81)
UCLA has a bad defense (#134)
UCLA has a bad red zone defense (#133)


  
Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene27639270%288718117.4
Joshua Wood182864%195117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Malik Sherrod6019643.348
Joshua Wood3711863.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mac Dalena60998816.675
Jalen Moss49582411.949
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)51523310.338
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tuasivi Nomura1027003
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark563224
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark563224
Phoenix Jackson455254
Korey Foreman (Tr)235241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Cameron Lockridge372006
Phoenix Jackson455254

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Garbers23536365%272716117.5
Justyn Martin243569%179105.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden12450524.140
Keegan Jones4717913.822
Jalen Berger4817803.718
Ethan Garbers8313711.757
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Moliki Matavao41506212.335
TJ Harden4036819.253
Logan Loya29348412.029
Kwazi Gilmer31345211.148

View UCLA's Full Roster
UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Carson Schwesinger1369433
Kain Medrano7211244
Oluwafemi Oladejo5714562
KJ Wallace4991110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Oluwafemi Oladejo5714562
Carson Schwesinger1369433
Devin Aupiu155211
Kain Medrano7211244
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KJ Wallace4991110
Kaylin Moore (Tr)372019
Bryan Addison (Tr)431005