New Mexico at Utah State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -1 (78.5) (-112) Open: -2.5
New Mexico 50 - Utah State: 45 (Mountain West)

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Utah State -7.5 (SP+ USU -4)
Projected Score: UNM: 30 - USU: 37 (67)
UNM Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNM Travel: 540 miles

Aggies (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Utah State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Utah State vs Robert Morris	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Utah State at USC	+30.5	62.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/14	Utah State vs Utah	+20.5	43.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Utah State at Temple	-6.5	53.5	L 29 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Utah State at Boise State	+28.0	66.5	L 30 - 62	O	N
Fri 10/11	Utah State vs UNLV	+19.0	67.5	L 34 - 50	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Utah State vs New Mexico	+1.0	78.5	L 45 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/26	Utah State at Wyoming	-2.5	57.0	W 27 - 25	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Utah State at Washington State	+20.5	69.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Utah State vs Hawai'i	+2.5	62.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Utah State vs San Diego State	-5.0	60.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Utah State at Colorado State	+5.5	56.5	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#15 (.31)	48% (12)	27.1	50% (13)	3.31 (31)	193	47% (23)	218	4.11 (49)	#127 (.32)	48% (130)	22.3	50% (126)	47% (127)	4.23 (109)	89.4	1.3	0.7
USU	#50 (.22)	42% (67)	30.9	45% (52)	3.36 (19)	184	42% (68)	254	3.27 (109)	#98 (.23)	45% (114)	28.7	49% (124)	43% (82)	4.41 (119)	70.8	1.9	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.1	27.5	48.3%	4.11	1.3	23	411	193	218	5.3	52%	47%	50%	47%	21%	.31
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	45.4%	4.41	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	49%	43%	18%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	22.3	26.3	48.4%	4.23	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	50%	47%	17%	.32
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	42.2%	3.27	1.9	22	439	184	254	4.8	48%	50%	45%	42%	20%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	32:26	23.2	41%	64%	9.8	89.4	1.3	0.7	3.9	1.3	0	24.5
Utah State	13	26:56	21.7	36%	56%	7.5	70.8	1.9	1.5	5.5	1.8	3	29.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (53)	50% (13)	36.7	192.7	5.3	26 (30)	.26 (16)	3.31 (31)	79% (23)	12% (110)	1.02 (54)
USU Defense	13	54% (113)	49% (124)	-	-	-	-	.18 (93)	3.1 (68)	83% (118)	11% (39)	0.93 (34)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	52% (101)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.21 (106)	3.35 (115)	63% (18)	10% (80)	0.88 (20)
USU Offense	13	48% (89)	45% (52)	38.2	184.5	4.8	18 (77)	.21 (33)	3.36 (19)	77% (40)	12% (104)	1 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	47% (83)	47% (23)	16.5	29.4	217.9	7.4	13.2	17 (85)	10 (56)	.42 (23)	1.6 (57)	32% (75)	33% (44)	.39 (47)	9% (129)	2 (72)
USU Defense	13	45% (22)	43% (82)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.31 (95)	1.6 (71)	30% (108)	31% (77)	.31 (70)	7% (23)	1.9 (32)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	48% (41)	47% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (131)	.45 (128)	1.8 (118)	24% (133)	40% (132)	.46 (122)	7% (28)	1.8 (14)
USU Offense	13	50% (56)	42% (68)	20.7	33.5	254.2	7.6	12.3	35 (7)	19 (131)	.34 (48)	1.8 (19)	33% (87)	33% (53)	.42 (40)	8% (122)	2.2 (30)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 120.00 #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10 Utah State: -8.715

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8 Utah State: -10.4

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -8.715 #105
Utah State's Offense Rating: 24.87 #19
Utah State's Defense Rating: 17.16 #123
2024 Talent Rating: 201.00 #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Utah State's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Utah State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.4 #106
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #45
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 37
New Mexico 30

Projected Total Points: 67

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	New Mexico	33	Utah State	14	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	61.5	Under
2024	10/19	Utah State	45	New Mexico	50	New Mexico -1	New Mexico	78.5	Over
2023	11/24	New Mexico	41	Utah State	44	Utah State -4.5	New Mexico	58.5	Over
2022	11/05	Utah State	27	New Mexico	10	Utah State -14.5	Utah State	42.5	Under
2021	11/26	New Mexico	10	Utah State	35	Utah State -17	Utah State	48.0	Under
2020	11/26	Utah State	41	New Mexico	27	New Mexico -6	Utah State	49.0	Over
2019	11/30	New Mexico	25	Utah State	38	Utah State -12	Utah State	63.0	Push
2018	10/27	Utah State	61	New Mexico	19	Utah State -20	Utah State	64.0	Over
2017	11/04	New Mexico	10	Utah State	24	New Mexico -3.5	Utah State	52.5	Under
2016	11/12	Utah State	21	New Mexico	24	Utah State -2.5	New Mexico	57.0	Under
2015	11/07	New Mexico	14	Utah State	13	Utah State -14.5	New Mexico	57.5	Under
2014	11/15	Utah State	28	New Mexico	21	Utah State -16	New Mexico	0
2013	10/19	New Mexico	10	Utah State	45	Utah State -10	Utah State	0
2003	10/04	New Mexico	34	Utah State	7
2002	10/19	Utah State	45	New Mexico	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	10	7	4 Overs
New Mexico	5	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 8	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3

(#118) UNM at (#105) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#118	#105
SP+SP+	#116	#106
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#116
OffenseOff	#17	#102
DefenseDef	#134	#124
Spec TeamsST	#135	#34
TalentTal	#130	#115
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#53

New Mexico Notes(12/14) HC Mendenhall left for Utah State
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg
(9/10) Defense is worst in CFB. Maybe historically bad.
New Mexico Injury Report

Utah State Notes(12/6) Hired HC Mendenhall, last at NM for 1 yr
(11/29) Rgame great vs CSU, 296/6.0. Pass D torched in L
(11/18) 5 INT's vs Hawaii, Rgame great (321, 7.6 ypc)
(11/9) Top WR Jalen Royals out for season (foot)
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#130) into week 9
(10/20) Petras 360 yds (NM), forced 4 TOs in near upset
(10/16) Monitor for quit watch. Def/Int Coach/Bad vibes
(10/11) Def is likely worst in CFB. #130+ all metrics
(10/10) Def is awful. Worst 2nd quarter D (nearly 21 ppg!)
(10/10) QB now Petras, hasn't been as awful as expected
(8/4) Portal lost #2 WR Davis (Ole Miss) this late??
(7/31) HC fired, Def awful, where does this go?
Utah State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#124
SuccessSuc	#12	#114
ExplosiveExp	#65	#27
PPAPPA	#15	#98
PowerPwr	#30	#123
SP+SP+	#64	#129
Pts POPPO	#49	#119
HavocHav	#126	#24

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#5	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	#13	#124
Run ExplRExp	#54	#34
PPAExp	#16	#93
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#68
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#45
TackleTak	-	#107

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	#23	#82
Pass ExplPExl	#57	#71
PPAExp	#23	#95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#94
F7 HavocF7	#110	#39
DB HavocDB	#129	#23

Utah State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#102	#134
SuccessSuc	#67	#130
ExplosiveExp	#22	#64
PPAPPA	#50	#127
PowerPwr	#19	#128
SP+SP+	#45	#132
Pts POPPO	#109	#109
HavocHav	#119	#54

Utah State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#22	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#126
Run ExplRExp	#68	#20
PPAExp	#33	#106
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	#19	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#57	#66
TackleTak	-	#115

Utah State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	USU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	#68	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#19	#118
PPAExp	#48	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#135
F7 HavocF7	#104	#80
DB HavocDB	#122	#28

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
New Mexico 1.0 (78.5)
New Mexico won at Utah State this year (50-45)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Utah State last year (33-14)
New Mexico beat Utah State in 2024 (50-45)
Utah State beat New Mexico in 2023 (44-41)

UNM's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Ryan Davis	54	747	3	13.8	55
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	10
Noa Pola-Gates	50	0	7
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	5

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Spencer Petras (Tr)	214	327	65%	2315	17	11	7.1
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	77	126	61%	856	12	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahsul Faison	198	1109	8	5.6	37
Bryson Barnes (Tr)	68	530	5	7.8	63
Herschel Turner	79	405	4	5.1	43
Derrick Jameson	15	140	2	9.3	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	55	834	6	15.2	75
Kyrese Rowan	44	526	3	12.0	57
Otto Tia	44	434	7	9.9	51
Jack Hestera (Tr)	24	340	4	14.2	32

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Vincent (Tr)	117	1	0	1	2
Ike Larsen	80	2	0	0	9
Jon Ross Maye	57	4	0	3	1
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cian Slone	49	10	8	5	0
Bronson Olevao	23	4	4	3	0
Lawrence Falatea (Tr)	28	6	3	3	0
John Miller (Tr)	52	6	2	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Ike Larsen	80	2	9
Avante Dickerson	19	2	3
D.J. Graham	42	3	2