Fresno State at Nevada - 2024 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack

Friday, October 18th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -3 (50.0) (-142) Open: -4.0
Fresno State 24 - Nevada: 21 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -6.5 (SP+ FRES -11.5)
Projected Score: FRES: 30 - NEV: 24 (54)
FRES Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
FRES Travel: 189 miles

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	26.1	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	24.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)	23.1	47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)	28.8	49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	26.1	21.2	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11
NEV Defense	13	28.8	26.6	46.4%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	49%	43%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	24.8	31.2	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08
NEV Offense	13	23.1	27.6	44.5%	3.88	1.2	19	377	164	213	4.6	53%	47%	47%	42%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7
Nevada	13	31:02	19.5	45%	52%	7.6	73.1	1.2	1	4.2	1.1	1	26.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)
NEV Defense	13	56% (126)	49% (121)	-	-	-	-	.27 (130)	3.17 (91)	80% (109)	8% (119)	1.08 (107)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)
NEV Offense	13	53% (47)	47% (33)	35.4	164.2	4.6	21 (59)	.16 (51)	3.06 (59)	69% (93)	10% (81)	0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)
NEV Defense	13	44% (11)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.2 (50)	1.5 (49)	30% (103)	39% (130)	.46 (119)	7% (47)	1.9 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)
NEV Offense	13	47% (87)	42% (65)	19	28.2	212.6	7.6	11.2	19 (65)	8 (40)	.27 (57)	1.6 (71)	32% (69)	32% (60)	.42 (29)	6% (74)	2.1 (59)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40 Nevada: -11.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8 Nevada: -15.2

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 30
Nevada 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 36
Fresno State 28

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Nevada 27
Fresno State 26

Total Points: 53

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Fresno State	20	Nevada	17	Fresno State -12.5	Nevada	45.5	Under
2024	10/18	Nevada	21	Fresno State	24	Fresno State -3	NA	50.0	Under
2023	09/30	Fresno State	27	Nevada	9	Fresno State -25.5	Nevada	50.5	Under
2022	11/19	Nevada	14	Fresno State	41	Fresno State -22.5	Fresno State	54.0	Over
2021	10/23	Fresno State	34	Nevada	32	Fresno State -3.5	Nevada	64.5	Over
2020	12/05	Nevada	37	Fresno State	26	Nevada -6.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2019	11/23	Fresno State	28	Nevada	35	Fresno State -13.5	Nevada	51.5	Over
2018	10/06	Nevada	3	Fresno State	21	Fresno State -15	Fresno State	59.0	Under
2017	09/30	Fresno State	41	Nevada	21	Fresno State -7.5	Fresno State	59.5	Over
2016	10/08	Nevada	27	Fresno State	22	Nevada -11.5	Fresno State	54.0	Under
2015	11/05	Fresno State	16	Nevada	30	Nevada -3.5	Nevada	54.0	Under
2014	11/22	Nevada	20	Fresno State	40	Nevada -6.5	Fresno State	0
2013	11/02	Fresno State	41	Nevada	23	Fresno State -23	Nevada	0
2012	11/10	Nevada	36	Fresno State	52
2011	10/22	Nevada	45	Fresno State	38
2010	11/13	Fresno State	34	Nevada	35
2009	11/14	Nevada	52	Fresno State	14
2008	11/07	Fresno State	28	Nevada	41
2007	10/06	Nevada	41	Fresno State	49
2006	09/01	Fresno State	28	Nevada	19
2005	11/26	Nevada	38	Fresno State	35
2004	11/20	Fresno State	54	Nevada	17
2003	11/08	Nevada	10	Fresno State	27
2001	11/17	Nevada	14	Fresno State	61
2000	10/13	Fresno State	58	Nevada	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	9	7	5 Overs
Fresno State	16	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	2 - 10	2 - 7	0 - 3
Road Teams	12 - 13	10 - 2	3 - 0	7 - 2

(#87) FRES at (#109) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#87	#109
SP+SP+	#85	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#87	#94
OffenseOff	#74	#39
DefenseDef	#88	#119
Spec TeamsST	#130	#133
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#65

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#119
SuccessSuc	#110	#117
ExplosiveExp	#38	#59
PPAPPA	#110	#110
PowerPwr	#95	#108
SP+SP+	#85	#113
Pts POPPO	#91	#114
HavocHav	#34	#95

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#117	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#121
Run ExplRExp	#76	#107
PPAExp	#111	#130
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#69
TackleTak	-	#131

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#49
PPAExp	#89	#50
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#73	#58
F7 HavocF7	#34	#119
DB HavocDB	#64	#47

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#88
SuccessSuc	#46	#51
ExplosiveExp	#94	#13
PPAPPA	#55	#17
PowerPwr	#46	#33
SP+SP+	#106	#77
Pts POPPO	#73	#47
HavocHav	#78	#113

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#70	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#74
Run ExplRExp	#64	#7
PPAExp	#51	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#59	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#47	#65
TackleTak	-	#79

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#71	#34
PPAExp	#57	#14
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#105
F7 HavocF7	#81	#121
DB HavocDB	#74	#65

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 43°

Rematch from Week 8
Fresno State 3.0 (50.0)
Fresno State won at Nevada this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-14)

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6