Fresno State at Nevada Game Matchup
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Friday, October 18th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -3 (50.0) (-142)  Open: -4.0
Fresno State 24 - Nevada: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
NEV 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -6.5   (SP+ FRES -11.5)
Projected Score: FRES: 29 - NEV: 23 (52)
FRES Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
FRES Travel: 189 miles
Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Fresno State at Michigan+21.048.0L 10 - 30UY
Sat 9/7 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.555.5W 46 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.548.5W 48 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Fresno State at New Mexico-12.061.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Fresno State at UNLV+2.551.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Fresno State vs Washington State+3.560.5L 17 - 25UN
Fri 10/18 Fresno State at Nevada-3.050.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Fresno State vs San José State-6.555.0W 33 - 10UY
Sat 11/2 Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.045.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 11/9 Fresno State at Air Force-9.540.5L 28 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.543.5W 28 - 22OY
Sat 11/30 Fresno State at UCLA+7.546.5L 13 - 20UY
Mon 12/23 Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Nevada vs SMU+28.055.5L 24 - 29UY
Sat 8/31 Nevada at Troy+7.544.5W 28 - 26OY
Sat 9/7 Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 Nevada at Minnesota+17.544.5L 0 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.554.5W 49 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Nevada at San José State+7.051.5L 31 - 35OY
Sat 10/12 Nevada vs Oregon State+3.047.0W 42 - 37OY
Fri 10/18 Nevada vs Fresno State+3.050.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Nevada at Hawai'i+2.542.0L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 Nevada vs Colorado State+2.045.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Nevada at Boise State+23.560.5L 21 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Nevada vs Air Force-3.044.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 11/30 Nevada at UNLV+17.554.5L 14 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#51 (.22)44% (48)26.140% (103)2.97 (95)10647% (24)2814.21 (36)#66 (.18)41% (60)24.842% (62)41% (64)3.31 (20)39.81.11.8
NEV#128 (.04)35% (129)23.139% (116)2.67 (127)12532% (132)1752.54 (132)#101 (.24)46% (122)28.847% (110)47% (126)3.83 (71)58.51.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1326.121.243.8%4.211.1213881062813.837%62%40%47%15%.22
NEV Defense1228.826.646.5%3.831.3 - - - - - 51%48%47%47%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1324.831.241.5%3.311.8 - - - - - 53%46%42%41%16%.18
NEV Offense1223.127.635.4%2.541.7173001251753.455%45%39%32%22%.04

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1329:2120.948%64%4.439.81.11.85.52.2131.4
Nevada1230:1916.730%43%6.858.51.71.341.3326.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1337% (129)40% (103)28.4106.53.816 (89).14 (77)2.97 (95)74% (70)8% (28)1.01 (62)
NEV Defense1251% (81)47% (110) - - - - .19 (97)3.28 (107)67% (30)9% (99)1.07 (104)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1353% (105)42% (62) - - - - .13 (61)3.16 (84)68% (42)9% (95)0.91 (30)
NEV Offense1255% (33)39% (116)36.9124.83.414 (106).08 (107)2.67 (127)55% (132)16% (133)0.98 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1362% (5)47% (24)25.839.6281.37.110.929 (18)12 (85).3 (65)1.5 (118)31% (49)38% (10).43 (37)7% (93)1.8 (125)
NEV Defense1248% (52)47% (126) - - - - - - 9 (87).32 (99)1.6 (83)30% (102)30% (68).28 (50)5% (99)2 (37)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1346% (28)41% (64) - - - - - - 17 (3).3 (90)1.7 (93)32% (60)33% (106).34 (84)7% (44)2 (44)
NEV Offense1245% (102)32% (132)15.928.8175.26.1116 (133)12 (85).02 (132)1.5 (88)34% (107)26% (109).06 (132)6% (89)1.7 (130)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40   Nevada: -11.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8   Nevada: -15.2




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 430.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 29
Nevada 23

Projected Total Points: 52
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/18Nevada21Fresno State24Fresno StateFresno State -3NA50.0Under
202309/30Fresno State27Nevada9Fresno StateFresno State -25.5Nevada50.5Under
202211/19Nevada14Fresno State41Fresno StateFresno State -22.5Fresno State54.0Over
202110/23Fresno State34Nevada32Fresno StateFresno State -3.5Nevada64.5Over
202012/05Nevada37Fresno State26NevadaNevada -6.5Nevada59.0Over
201911/23Fresno State28Nevada35NevadaFresno State -13.5Nevada51.5Over
201810/06Nevada3Fresno State21Fresno StateFresno State -15Fresno State59.0Under
201709/30Fresno State41Nevada21Fresno StateFresno State -7.5Fresno State59.5Over
201610/08Nevada27Fresno State22NevadaNevada -11.5Fresno State54.0Under
201511/05Fresno State16Nevada30NevadaNevada -3.5Nevada54.0Under
201411/22Nevada20Fresno State40Fresno StateNevada -6.5Fresno State0
201311/02Fresno State41Nevada23Fresno StateFresno State -23Nevada0
201211/10Nevada36Fresno State52Fresno State
201110/22Nevada45Fresno State38Nevada
201011/13Fresno State34Nevada35Nevada
200911/14Nevada52Fresno State14Nevada
200811/07Fresno State28Nevada41Nevada
200710/06Nevada41Fresno State49Fresno State
200609/01Fresno State28Nevada19Fresno State
200511/26Nevada38Fresno State35Nevada
200411/20Fresno State54Nevada17Fresno State
200311/08Nevada10Fresno State27Fresno State
200111/17Nevada14Fresno State61Fresno State
200010/13Fresno State58Nevada21Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada965 Overs
Fresno State1555 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 122 - 92 - 60 - 3
Road Teams12 - 129 - 23 - 06 - 2

(#87) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State     Ratings Matchup     Nevada
Power #87
#109
Off #95
#46
Def #33
#108
Talent #88
#112
SP+ #85
#117
SP+ Off #85
#106
SP+ Def #77
#113

Rematch from Week 8
Fresno State 3.0 (50.0)
Fresno State won at Nevada this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 43°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | NEV
Depth Chart: FRES | NEV
Rosters: FRES | NEV
(#109) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Talent Rating: 430.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker


  
Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene27639270%288718117.4
Joshua Wood182864%195117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Malik Sherrod6019643.348
Joshua Wood3711863.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Moss49582411.949
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)51523310.338
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471
Richie Anderson1714708.618

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jayden Davis461002
Phoenix Jackson455254
Kosi Agina382001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phoenix Jackson455254
Korey Foreman (Tr)235241
Jacob Holmes173230
Sione Noa153230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Phoenix Jackson455254
Julian Neal324104

Nevada's OC Matt Lubick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis21131268%22901677.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)182572%239119.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendon Lewis15777584.967
Savion Red (Tr)11968785.869
Pat Garwo III5524654.525
Sean Dollars4716503.526
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Smith62849713.762
Cortez Braham56724412.957
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Drue Watts655103
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Stone Combs583100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Henry Ikahihifo438430
Kristopher Ross296332
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr.4110010
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Chad Brown475006