Washington State at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Washington State Cougars at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Washington State -3.5 (60.5) (-166) Open: -2.5
Washington State 25 - Fresno State: 17

Cougars (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (15 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 30 (30 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.4 MPH
WSU coming off BYE
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Washington State -2 (SP+ WSU -5)
Projected Score: WSU: 32 - FRES: 30 (61)
WSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WSU Travel: 698 miles

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Washington State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Washington State vs Portland State	-26.5	57.5	W 70 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Washington State vs Texas Tech	+2.5	64.5	W 37 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Washington State vs Washington	+4.0	56.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Fri 9/20	Washington State vs San José State	-13.0	55.5	W 54 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/28	Washington State at Boise State	+6.5	66.0	L 24 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Washington State at Fresno State	-3.5	60.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Washington State vs Hawai'i	-18.5	55.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Washington State at San Diego State	-17.0	56.5	W 29 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Washington State vs Utah State	-20.5	69.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Washington State at New Mexico	-10.5	72.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Washington State at Oregon State	-11.0	57.0	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Washington State vs Wyoming	-18.5	55.5	L 14 - 15	U	N
Fri 12/27	Washington State vs Syracuse	+19.0	58.5	L 35 - 52	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Washington State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WSU	#19 (.29)	48% (15)	36.6	47% (27)	3.1 (54)	159	49% (8)	248	4.43 (23)	#99 (.22)	46% (112)	29.9	51% (129)	43% (91)	4.18 (107)	54.8	0.8	1.7
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	26.1	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	24.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WSU	#19 (.29)	48% (15)		47% (27)	3.1 (54)	159	49% (8)	248	4.43 (23)	#99 (.22)	46% (112)		51% (129)	43% (91)	4.18 (107)	54.8	0.8	1.7
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WSU Offense	13	36.6	30.2	48.1%	4.43	0.8	21	407	159	248	4.7	51%	49%	47%	49%	14%	.29
FRES Defense	13	24.8	18	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WSU Defense	13	29.9	33.4	46%	4.18	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	51%	43%	15%	.22
FRES Offense	13	26.1	32	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Washington State	13	26:19	21.1	41%	54%	5.9	54.8	0.8	1.7	4.6	1.5	3	30.1
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WSU Offense	13	51% (66)	47% (27)	33.6	158.8	4.7	27 (30)	.23 (22)	3.1 (54)	67% (108)	10% (72)	1.12 (14)
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WSU Defense	13	44% (7)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.25 (123)	3.28 (110)	69% (45)	9% (102)	1.03 (89)
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WSU Offense	13	49% (69)	49% (8)	17.8	27.4	248.2	9.1	13.9	30 (9)	7 (26)	.37 (20)	1.6 (68)	27% (13)	37% (14)	.43 (27)	4% (19)	2.1 (44)
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WSU Defense	13	55% (126)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.24 (74)	1.5 (54)	30% (98)	32% (93)	.35 (87)	6% (64)	2.2 (114)
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)

Washington State's Power Ratings
Washington State's Power Rating: -2.40 #72
Washington State's Offense Rating: 24.60 #22
Washington State's Defense Rating: 14.60 #107
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Washington State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Washington State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Washington State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #21
Washington State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.1 #97

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Washington State: -2.40 Fresno State: -2.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Washington State: 1.3 Fresno State: -3.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Washington State Scoring
Offense: 36.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.2
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.4

Washington State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Washington State 32
Fresno State 30

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 40
Washington State 25

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 30
Washington State 28

Total Points: 58

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Fresno State	17	Washington State	25	Washington State -3.5	Washington State	60.5	Under
2022	12/17	Fresno State	29	Washington State	6	Fresno State -5.5	Fresno State	54.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	1	1	0 Overs
Washington State	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#72) WSU at (#87) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#72	#87
SP+SP+	#68	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#48	#87
OffenseOff	#45	#74
DefenseDef	#44	#88
Spec TeamsST	#101	#130
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

Washington State Notes(12/29) Hired HC Jimmy Rogers (SDSU, 27-3)
(12/18) HC Dickert left for Wake Forest
(11/18) Shocking L to NM, Mateer great, Def torched
(9/20) QB Mateer can sling it & has 3 good WR options
(9/8) Rushed for 301 yds vs T Tech. Outgained but 4 D TOs
(9/1) QB Mateer. 70 on Port St, gave up 30 (215 ground)
(7/30) Roster going down. 27 Transfers out/12 in (not P5)
(7/30) OC & DC in 2nd year. G5 sched will mask issues
(7/30) Most skill players new and JAG's. D looks meh
Washington State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

Washington State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#45	#88
SuccessSuc	#15	#51
ExplosiveExp	#24	#13
PPAPPA	#19	#17
PowerPwr	#22	#33
SP+SP+	#21	#77
Pts POPPO	#23	#47
HavocHav	#43	#113

Washington State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#25	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#74
Run ExplRExp	#14	#7
PPAExp	#22	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#65
TackleTak	-	#79

Washington State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#51	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	#8	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#34
PPAExp	#20	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#3	#105
F7 HavocF7	#72	#121
DB HavocDB	#19	#65

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	WSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#44
SuccessSuc	#110	#112
ExplosiveExp	#38	#82
PPAPPA	#110	#99
PowerPwr	#95	#107
SP+SP+	#85	#97
Pts POPPO	#91	#107
HavocHav	#34	#88

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	WSU Def
Run GameRun	#117	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#129
Run ExplRExp	#76	#89
PPAExp	#111	#123
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#110
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#82
TackleTak	-	#132

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	WSU Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#42
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#54
PPAExp	#89	#74
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#43
F7 HavocF7	#34	#102
DB HavocDB	#64	#64

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

WSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Washington State 3.5 (60.5)
Washington State won at Fresno State this year (25-17)

Previous Matchups
Washington State beat Fresno State last year (25-17)
Fresno State beat Washington State in 2022 (29-6)

WSU's OC Ben Arbuckle (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Mateer	224	347	65%	3139	29	7	9.0
Zevi Eckhaus (Tr)	37	50	74%	424	4	2	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
John Mateer	178	826	15	4.6	68
Wayshawn Parker	137	735	4	5.4	75
Leo Pulalasi	65	302	2	4.6	22
Djouvensky Schlenbaker	43	149	3	3.5	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kyle Williams	70	1193	14	17.0	66
Kris Hutson (Tr)	55	691	2	12.6	59
Josh Meredith	39	477	2	12.2	39
Carlos Hernandez	31	397	5	12.8	42

View Washington State's Full Roster

WSU's DC Jeff Schmedding (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taariq Al-Uqdah	69	5	0	5	2
Kyle Thornton	66	7	1	4	1
Kapena Gushiken	48	3	0	0	6
Tanner Moku	48	0	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ansel Din-Mbuh	24	7	6	2	0
Khalil Laufau	15	4	3	0	1
Andrew Edson	38	7	3	4	2
Quinn Roff	18	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ethan O'Connor	30	1	1	8
Kapena Gushiken	48	3	0	6
Tyson Durant (Tr)	45	2	2	6

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4