Sacramento State at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (10:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -18.5 (55.5) (-1200) Open: -15.5 | 56.5
Fresno State 46 - Sacramento State: 30

Hornets (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Andy Thompson (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SAC 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ FRES -4)
Projected Score: SAC: 17 - FRES: 23 (40)
FRES Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
SAC Travel: 151 miles

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SAC Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sacramento State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Sacramento State at San José State	+2.5	62.5	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/7	Sacramento State at Fresno State	+18.5	55.5	L 30 - 46	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%	17	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	20	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	25.8	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	18.8	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Offense	1	17	17	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Defense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Sacramento State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Sacramento State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Fresno State: -2.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Fresno State: -3.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -2.6 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 267.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 23
Sacramento State 17

Projected Total Points: 40

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Fresno State	46	Sacramento State	30	Fresno State -18.5	Sacramento State	55.5	Over
2019	09/21	Fresno State	34	Sacramento State	20	Fresno State -24.5	Sacramento State	54.5	Under
2016	09/10	Fresno State	31	Sacramento State	3
2007	09/01	Fresno State	24	Sacramento State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	4	0	1 Overs
Sacramento State	0	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#) SAC at (#87) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SAC	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#87
SP+SP+	NR	#85
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#87
OffenseOff	NR	#74
DefenseDef	NR	#88
Spec TeamsST	NR	#130
TalentTal	NR	#87
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#82

Sacramento State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	#88
SuccessSuc	NR	#60
ExplosiveExp	NR	#52
PPAPPA	NR	#66
PowerPwr	NR	#33
SP+SP+	NR	#77
Pts POPPO	NR	#20
HavocHav	NR	#77

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#62
Run ExplRExp	NR	#30
PPAExp	NR	#61
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#84
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#62
TackleTak	-	#79

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#64
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#93
PPAExp	NR	#90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#105
F7 HavocF7	NR	#95
DB HavocDB	NR	#44

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SAC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	NR
SuccessSuc	#48	NR
ExplosiveExp	#62	NR
PPAPPA	#51	NR
PowerPwr	#95	NR
SP+SP+	#85	NR
Pts POPPO	#36	NR
HavocHav	#45	NR

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	#117	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	NR
Run ExplRExp	#62	NR
PPAExp	#77	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#113	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	#54	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#118	NR
PPAExp	#65	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	NR
F7 HavocF7	#28	NR
DB HavocDB	#93	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Fresno State -18.5 (55.5)
Fresno State won vs Sacramento State this year (46-30)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Sacramento State in 2024 (46-30)

SAC's OC Bobby Fresques (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin	255	406	63%	2759	27	8	6.8
Kaiden Bennett	22	45	49%	269	1	3	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Tau-Tolliver	183	954	7	5.2	70
Curron Borders	65	361	1	5.6	45
Ezra Moleni	33	170	2	5.2	25
Michael Johnson	12	94	0	7.8	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anderson Grover	59	782	7	13.3	54
Jared Gipson	53	715	9	13.5	78
Danny Scudero	50	650	4	13.0	41
Elijah Tau-Tolliver	37	287	2	7.8	27

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Andy Thompson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Will Leota (Tr)	9	0	1
Kaleb Higgins	9	0	0
Alex Rocha	9	0	0
Elias Mullican	9	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Mason Brosseau	7	3	2	1
Fata Puloka	5	1	1	1
Aj Campos	1	0	0	0
Pate Haunga	2	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Zelmar Vedder	5	0	2
Will Leota (Tr)	9	0	1
Derek Houston	6	1	1

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4