Fresno State at Air Force - 2024 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (9:45 PM EST)
Fresno State -9.5 (40.5) (-430) Open: -10.5 | 41.0
Air Force 36 - Fresno State: 28 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -9.5 (SP+ FRES -8)
Projected Score: FRES: 28 - AFA: 19 (47)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
FRES Travel: 826 miles, 1 hrs behind

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	25.8	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	18.8	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	29.8	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	30.3	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.3	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22
AFA Defense	13	30.3	27.8	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	18.8	24.8	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18
AFA Offense	13	29.8	27.5	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 267.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40 Air Force: -14.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8 Air Force: -11.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 85.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 28
Air Force 19

Projected Total Points: 47

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Air Force	36	Fresno State	28	Fresno State -9.5	Air Force	40.5	Over
2019	10/12	Air Force	43	Fresno State	24	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2016	10/28	Fresno State	21	Air Force	31	Air Force -13.5	Fresno State	51.0	Over
2015	10/24	Air Force	42	Fresno State	14	Air Force -17	Air Force	54.0	Over
2012	11/24	Fresno State	48	Air Force	15
2000	12/30	Air Force	37	Fresno State	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	5	3	4 Overs
Fresno State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 5	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 2

(#87) FRES at (#125) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#87	#125
SP+SP+	#85	#111
Perf GradeGrade	#87	#97
OffenseOff	#74	#72
DefenseDef	#88	#113
Spec TeamsST	#130	#129
TalentTal	#87	#132
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Fresno State Notes(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report

Air Force Notes(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#113
SuccessSuc	#48	#38
ExplosiveExp	#62	#42
PPAPPA	#51	#28
PowerPwr	#95	#117
SP+SP+	#85	#76
Pts POPPO	#36	#85
HavocHav	#45	#113

Fresno State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#117	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#16
Run ExplRExp	#62	#61
PPAExp	#77	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#44
TackleTak	-	#61

Fresno State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#19
PPAExp	#65	#36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#73	#96
F7 HavocF7	#28	#93
DB HavocDB	#93	#103

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#88
SuccessSuc	#31	#60
ExplosiveExp	#115	#52
PPAPPA	#26	#66
PowerPwr	#112	#33
SP+SP+	#120	#77
Pts POPPO	#52	#20
HavocHav	#3	#77

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#109	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#34	#62
Run ExplRExp	#56	#30
PPAExp	#14	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#84
Stuff RateStuff	#1	#62
TackleTak	-	#79

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#57
Pass SuccessPSuc	#74	#64
Pass ExplPExl	#1	#93
PPAExp	#9	#90
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#105
F7 HavocF7	#22	#95
DB HavocDB	#1	#44

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Fresno State 9.5 (40.5)
Air Force won vs Fresno State this year (36-28)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Fresno State in 2024 (36-28)

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Jared Roznos	5	109	0	21.8	52
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	4
Trey Williams	31	1	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	1	3