New Mexico at San Diego State - 2024 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Friday, November 8th 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
San Diego State -1.5 (65.5) (-120)  Open: -3.0 | 67.5
New Mexico 21 - San Diego State: 16  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -1  (SP+ UNM -0.5)

Projected Score: UNM: 31 - SDSU: 32 (63)
SDSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UNM Travel: 622 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 New Mexico vs Montana State+10.554.0L 31 - 35OY
Sat 8/31 New Mexico at Arizona+28.060.0L 39 - 61OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 New Mexico at Auburn+25.558.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/21 New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.061.0L 21 - 38UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.554.0W 50 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 New Mexico vs Air Force-7.056.0W 52 - 37OY
Sat 10/19 New Mexico at Utah State-1.078.5W 50 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 New Mexico at Colorado State+3.562.0L 6 - 17UN
Sat 11/2 New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.560.5L 45 - 49ON
Fri 11/8 New Mexico at San Diego State+1.565.5W 21 - 16UY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico vs Washington State+10.572.5W 38 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.561.5L 30 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7 San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.554.5L 0 - 21UN
Sat 9/14 San Diego State at California+18.548.5L 10 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.547.5L 21 - 22UY
Sat 10/5 San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.547.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 10/12 San Diego State at Wyoming+1.543.0W 27 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 San Diego State vs Washington State+17.056.5L 26 - 29UY
Fri 11/1 San Diego State at Boise State+24.555.5L 24 - 56ON
Fri 11/8 San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.565.5L 16 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 San Diego State at UNLV+22.055.5L 20 - 41OY
Sat 11/23 San Diego State at Utah State+5.060.0L 20 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 San Diego State vs Air Force+6.543.5L 20 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)33.553% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)3850% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)21.337% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)29.649% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1233.530.748.9%3.831.6254852542316.752%48%53%44%12%.31
SDSU Defense1229.623.346.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense123837.450.4%4.640.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%51%14%.34
SDSU Offense1221.322.337.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1228:5224.743%68%9.381.51.60.83.91.6126.8
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1252% (55)53% (3)37.82546.737 (6).37 (1)3.81 (1)81% (20)5% (1)1.1 (21)
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1254% (106)50% (125) - - - - .2 (110)3.26 (103)71% (52)8% (118)0.97 (64)
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1248% (77)44% (40)18.832.5230.77.112.312 (118)12 (85).24 (77)1.4 (125)27% (8)37% (11).49 (13)6% (85)1.9 (110)
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1246% (30)51% (131) - - - - - - 3 (132).51 (132)1.6 (81)26% (132)38% (129).54 (129)6% (79)2.2 (118)
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10  #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67  #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73  #128
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8  #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6  #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5  #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10   San Diego State: -15.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8   San Diego State: -15.4




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -15.23  #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55  #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20  #109
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4  #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 32
New Mexico 31


Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 32
San Diego State 30

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 30
San Diego State 30

Total Points: 60
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28New Mexico23San Diego State17San Diego State -1.5New Mexico41.5Under
202411/08San Diego State16New Mexico21San Diego State -1.5New Mexico65.5Under
202211/18New Mexico10San Diego State34San Diego State -15San Diego State36.0Over
202110/09San Diego State31New Mexico7San Diego State -19.5San Diego State42.5Under
201811/03New Mexico23San Diego State31San Diego State -12New Mexico45.5Over
201711/24San Diego State35New Mexico10San Diego State -20.5San Diego State48.5Under
201410/10New Mexico14San Diego State24San Diego State -6San Diego State0
201311/02San Diego State35New Mexico30San Diego State -17New Mexico0
201111/05San Diego State35New Mexico7
201010/23New Mexico20San Diego State30
200910/31San Diego State23New Mexico20
200810/18New Mexico70San Diego State7
200710/20San Diego State17New Mexico20
200611/25New Mexico41San Diego State14
200510/22San Diego State24New Mexico47
200410/23New Mexico19San Diego State9
200310/18San Diego State7New Mexico30
200211/09New Mexico15San Diego State8
200111/03San Diego State15New Mexico20
200011/03New Mexico16San Diego State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State1042 Overs
New Mexico1044 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 104 - 42 - 22 - 2
Road Teams10 - 104 - 42 - 22 - 2

(#118) UNM at (#122) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNMSDSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #118 #122
SP+SP+ #116 #119
Perf GradeGrade #92 #108
OffenseOff #17 #91
DefenseDef #134 #116
Spec TeamsST #135 #24
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #74 #97
New Mexico Notes
(12/14) HC Mendenhall left for Utah State
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg
(9/10) Defense is worst in CFB. Maybe historically bad.
New Mexico Injury Report
San Diego State Notes
(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSDSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #17 #116
SuccessSuc #10 #113
ExplosiveExp #86 #44
PPAPPA #14 #103
PowerPwr #30 #109
SP+SP+ #64 #104
Pts POPPO #79 #111
HavocHav #12 #131
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #5 #126
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #117
Run ExplRExp #21 #47
PPAExp #1 #113
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #130
Stuff RateStuff #3 #132
TackleTak -  #125
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
UNM OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #30 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #98
Pass ExplPExl #125 #75
PPAExp #77 #96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #22 #87
F7 HavocF7 #1 #98
DB HavocDB #85 #133
San Diego State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSDSU OffUNM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #91 #134
SuccessSuc #120 #132
ExplosiveExp #51 #68
PPAPPA #108 #132
PowerPwr #117 #128
SP+SP+ #122 #132
Pts POPPO #107 #128
HavocHav #99 #114
San Diego State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffUNM Def
Run GameRun #118 #127
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #125
Run ExplRExp #37 #64
PPAExp #84 #110
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #103
Stuff RateStuff #35 #94
TackleTak -  #115
San Diego State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSDSU OffUNM Def
Pass GamePass #62 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #131
Pass ExplPExl #99 #81
PPAExp #107 #132
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #135
F7 HavocF7 #114 #118
DB HavocDB #61 #79
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 55°
Rematch from Week 11
San Diego State -1.5 (65.5)
New Mexico won at San Diego State this year (21-16)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat San Diego State last year (21-16)
San Diego State beat New Mexico in 2022 (34-10)

  
UNM's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devon Dampier22639058%276812127.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devon Dampier1561152197.485
Eli Sanders (Tr)147106497.275
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)7438255.229
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4027736.950
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luke Wysong69840112.253
Ryan Davis54747313.855
Caleb Medford18336318.747
Nic Trujillo16305119.143

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Ellis934824
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005
Randolph Kpai (Tr)805153
Dmitri Johnson775212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Ellis934824
Moso'oipala Tuitele356420
Dmitri Johnson775212
Jayden Wilson323220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Taylor5620010
Noa Pola-Gates500007
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Danny O'Neil20933063%21811266.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson203951%222225.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)2921274124.447
Danny O'Neil748911.234
Cam Davis147605.438
Jaylon Armstead134203.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Louis Brown38620316.344
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)5045919.246
Jordan Napier43440410.253
Nate Bennett (Tr)22314114.348

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli (Tr)674220
Chris Johnson590013
Kyle Moretti (Tr)583100
Trey White56191351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White56191351
Tupu Alualu215400
Marlem Louis (Tr)104400
Ryan Henderson123320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn McCuin262115
Chris Johnson590013
Eric Butler443003