Fresno State at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Michigan Wolverines(#14)Michigan logo
Saturday, August 31st 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -21 (48.0) (-1800)  Open: -21.0 | 48.0
Michigan 30 - Fresno State: 10

 
Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Michigan -15.5   (SP+ MICH -14)
Projected Score: FRES: 16 - MICH: 32 (48)
MICH Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
FRES Travel: 1940 miles, 3 hrs behind
Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (27 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Fresno State at Michigan+21.048.0L 10 - 30UY
Sat 9/7 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.555.5W 46 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.548.5W 48 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Fresno State at New Mexico-12.061.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Fresno State at UNLV+2.551.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Fresno State vs Washington State+3.560.5L 17 - 25UN
Fri 10/18 Fresno State at Nevada-3.050.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Fresno State vs San José State-6.555.0W 33 - 10UY
Sat 11/2 Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.045.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 11/9 Fresno State at Air Force-9.540.5L 28 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.543.5W 28 - 22OY
Sat 11/30 Fresno State at UCLA+7.546.5L 13 - 20UY
Mon 12/23 Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Michigan vs Fresno State-21.048.0W 30 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan vs Texas+7.042.0L 12 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.047.5W 28 - 18UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan vs USC+4.044.0W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Michigan vs Minnesota-10.534.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/5 Michigan at Washington+1.539.5L 17 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan at Illinois-6.044.0L 7 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Michigan vs Michigan State-3.539.0W 24 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 Michigan vs Oregon+14.545.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Michigan at Indiana+14.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.535.5W 50 - 6OY
Sat 11/30 Michigan at Ohio State+20.541.5W 13 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Michigan vs Alabama+16.545.5W 19 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)2241% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)19.938% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1326.121.239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11
MICH Defense1319.92138.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1324.831.240.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
MICH Offense132226.940.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40   Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8   Michigan: 10.6




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 32
Fresno State 16


Total Points: 48

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Michigan30Fresno State10MichiganMichigan -21Fresno State48.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan100 Overs
Fresno State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#87) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State defense does not give up big plays (#67)
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State Can Not Run the Ball (#5)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State offense is really bad (#64)
Fresno State run game is really bad (#70)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMICHFRES
OverallOver#17#61
OffenseOff#80#60
DefenseDef#5#68
Special TeamsST#34#107
PassingPass#100#43
RushingRush#41#85
Run BlockRBLK#55#31
Pass BlockPBLK#77#65
Route RunningWR Rt#82#52
TacklingTkl#9#69
Run DefenseR Def#2#70
Pass Rush DefPRush#1#89
Coverage DefCov#57#45

Rematch from Week 1
Michigan -21.0 (48.0)
Michigan won vs Fresno State this year (30-10)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Fresno State last year (30-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | MICH
Depth Chart: FRES | MICH
Rosters: FRES | MICH
(#43) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.18 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 6 - 2 (3 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan Notes
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW

Michigan Highlights
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan has a really good defense (#65)
Michigan has a good run defense (#59)
Michigan Defensive Line is very good (#68)
Michigan Secondary is very good (#34)
Michigan commits very few Penalties (#49)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan offense is really bad (#99)
Michigan offense is not Explosive (#10)
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)


  
Fresno State's OC Pat McCann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene27639270%288718117.4
Joshua Wood182864%195117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Malik Sherrod6019643.348
Joshua Wood3711863.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mac Dalena60998816.675
Jalen Moss49582411.949
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)51523310.338
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tuasivi Nomura1027003
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark563224
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark563224
Phoenix Jackson455254
Korey Foreman (Tr)235241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Cameron Lockridge372006
Phoenix Jackson455254

Michigan's OC Kirk Campbell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Davis Warren13320764%1198795.8
Jack Tuttle305060%306126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalel Mullings185948125.163
Donovan Edwards12858944.641
Alex Orji5726914.729
Jordan Marshall3112003.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Colston Loveland56582510.436
Tyler Morris23248210.828
Semaj Morgan2713915.131
Fredrick Moore11128111.620

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann897221
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)664152
Mason Graham467431
Makari Paige451004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josaiah Stewart3313970
TJ Guy327660
Derrick Moore236442
Mason Graham467431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry373029
Jyaire Hill356108
Quinten Johnson431005