New Mexico at Arizona - 2024 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at Arizona Wildcats(#18)

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Arizona -28.0 (60.0) (0) Open: -30.5 | 55.0
Arizona 61 - New Mexico: 39

Lobos (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Arizona -13.5 (SP+ ARIZ -12)
Projected Score: UNM: 23 - ARIZ: 37 (60)
ARIZ Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
UNM Travel: 317 miles

Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
ARIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	New Mexico vs Montana State	+10.5	54.0	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 8/31	New Mexico at Arizona	+28.0	60.0	L 39 - 61	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	New Mexico at Auburn	+25.5	58.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+12.0	61.0	L 21 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-9.5	54.0	W 50 - 40	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	New Mexico vs Air Force	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	New Mexico at Utah State	-1.0	78.5	W 50 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	New Mexico at Colorado State	+3.5	62.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	New Mexico vs Wyoming	-7.5	60.5	L 45 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/8	New Mexico at San Diego State	+1.5	65.5	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico vs Washington State	+10.5	72.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	New Mexico at Hawai'i	-6.5	61.5	L 30 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Arizona's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona vs New Mexico	-28.0	60.0	W 61 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-43.0	65.0	W 22 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/13	Arizona at Kansas State	+7.0	58.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Arizona at Utah	+7.5	47.0	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arizona vs Texas Tech	-6.0	64.0	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/12	Arizona at BYU	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/19	Arizona vs Colorado	-2.5	57.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arizona vs West Virginia	-5.5	51.5	L 26 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/2	Arizona at UCF	+6.5	55.0	L 12 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Arizona vs Houston	-1.0	46.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona at TCU	+10.5	60.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arizona vs Arizona State	+7.5	52.5	L 7 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)	33.5	53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)	38	50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)	21.8	37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)	31.8	45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)		37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)		45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	33.5	30.7	48.9%	3.83	1.6	25	485	254	231	6.7	52%	48%	53%	44%	12%	.31
ARIZ Defense	12	31.8	27.7	44.6%	4.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	44%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	38	37.4	50.4%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	51%	14%	.34
ARIZ Offense	12	21.8	24.6	38.5%	3.53	1.7	19	355	107	248	3.9	39%	61%	37%	40%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	28:52	24.7	43%	68%	9.3	81.5	1.6	0.8	3.9	1.6	1	26.8
Arizona	12	29:45	18.5	43%	42%	6.5	57.6	1.7	1.2	4.8	1.7	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (55)	53% (3)	37.8	254	6.7	37 (6)	.37 (1)	3.81 (1)	81% (20)	5% (1)	1.1 (21)
ARIZ Defense	12	51% (73)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.18 (100)	3.32 (115)	78% (99)	9% (94)	1.08 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	54% (106)	50% (125)	-	-	-	-	.2 (110)	3.26 (103)	71% (52)	8% (118)	0.97 (64)
ARIZ Offense	12	39% (127)	37% (126)	27.4	106.7	3.9	11 (116)	.03 (112)	2.64 (123)	55% (134)	9% (59)	1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	48% (77)	44% (40)	18.8	32.5	230.7	7.1	12.3	12 (118)	12 (85)	.24 (77)	1.4 (125)	27% (8)	37% (11)	.49 (13)	6% (85)	1.9 (110)
ARIZ Defense	12	48% (61)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.31 (103)	1.6 (66)	31% (88)	32% (95)	.39 (101)	5% (93)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	46% (30)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.51 (132)	1.6 (81)	26% (132)	38% (129)	.54 (129)	6% (79)	2.2 (118)
ARIZ Offense	12	61% (8)	40% (91)	21.8	36.4	247.9	6.8	11.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.22 (88)	1.6 (44)	36% (124)	31% (70)	.33 (71)	6% (88)	2.1 (35)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -18.10 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 23.67 #30
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 20.73 #128
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
New Mexico's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
New Mexico's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #64
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -18.10 Arizona: -2.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.8 Arizona: -2.8

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -2.755 #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72 #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40 #104
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8 #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 37
New Mexico 23

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 36
New Mexico 19

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 31
Arizona 31

Total Points: 62

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.7

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Arizona	61	New Mexico	39	Arizona -28.0	New Mexico	60.0	Over
2015	12/19	New Mexico	37	Arizona	45	Arizona -11.5	New Mexico	0
2008	09/13	New Mexico	36	Arizona	28
2007	09/15	Arizona	27	New Mexico	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona	2	0	1 Overs
New Mexico	2	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#118) UNM at (#90) ARIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	ARIZ
Power RatePwr	#118	#90
SP+SP+	#116	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#92	#99
OffenseOff	#17	#82
DefenseDef	#134	#118
Spec TeamsST	#135	#53
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#41

New Mexico Notes(12/14) HC Mendenhall left for Utah State
(12/14) Hired HC Jason Eck (Idaho, FCS OL/OC)
(12/14) HC Eck rose Idaho (26-13) after P Pentrino meh
(11/18) Big W vs Wazzu, Rgame 360 yds, QB bad
(11/3) Def allow 600+ yds, 49 pts at home vs Wyoming?
(10/22) Def stop rate 36% is #132 into week 9
(10/20) Off 550 yds (Ut St), Dampier 3 Int almost cost em
(10/19) Dampier is NM best QB in a while, Over bet team
(10/12) Rgame great, Def awful in W (AFA). Theme of '24
(10/4) Off good, Def worst in CFB? 100 yds penalties pg
(10/4) Run game stats top 20. OL yds, 5.9 ypc, 200 ypg
(9/10) Defense is worst in CFB. Maybe historically bad.
New Mexico Injury Report

Arizona Notes(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	ARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#17	#118
SuccessSuc	#10	#100
ExplosiveExp	#86	#96
PPAPPA	#14	#109
PowerPwr	#30	#104
SP+SP+	#64	#84
Pts POPPO	#79	#125
HavocHav	#12	#99

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#5	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#90
Run ExplRExp	#21	#109
PPAExp	#1	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#102
TackleTak	-	#127

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#66
PPAExp	#77	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#75
F7 HavocF7	#1	#94
DB HavocDB	#85	#93

Arizona on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	UNM Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#134
SuccessSuc	#117	#132
ExplosiveExp	#3	#68
PPAPPA	#93	#132
PowerPwr	#87	#128
SP+SP+	#90	#132
Pts POPPO	#101	#128
HavocHav	#65	#114

Arizona Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#92	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#126	#125
Run ExplRExp	#6	#64
PPAExp	#112	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#94
TackleTak	-	#115

Arizona Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#81
PPAExp	#88	#132
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#135
F7 HavocF7	#59	#118
DB HavocDB	#88	#79

Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 87° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Arizona -28.0 (60.0)
Arizona won vs New Mexico this year (61-39)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat New Mexico last year (61-39)

UNM's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier	226	390	58%	2768	12	12	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devon Dampier	156	1152	19	7.4	85
Eli Sanders (Tr)	147	1064	9	7.2	75
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	74	382	5	5.2	29
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	40	277	3	6.9	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Wysong	69	840	1	12.2	53
Ryan Davis	54	747	3	13.8	55
Caleb Medford	18	336	3	18.7	47
Nic Trujillo	16	305	1	19.1	43

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	0	0	5
Randolph Kpai (Tr)	80	5	1	5	3
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Ellis	93	4	8	2	4
Moso'oipala Tuitele	35	6	4	2	0
Dmitri Johnson	77	5	2	1	2
Jayden Wilson	32	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Bryson Taylor	56	2	10
Noa Pola-Gates	50	0	7
Noah Avinger (Tr)	82	2	5

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	260	430	61%	2958	18	12	6.9
Cole Tannenbaum	1	5	20%	3	0	1	0.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)	78	359	1	4.6	56
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Kayden Luke	5	20	0	4.0	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Chris Hunter	35	323	3	9.2	45
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Keyan Burnett	18	217	1	12.1	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	78	5	0	0	2
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	0	6
Owen Goss (Tr)	49	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Smith (Tr)	48	7	5	2	0
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei	33	7	3	3	1
Chase Kennedy (Tr)	17	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	6
Tacario Davis	39	2	1	6
Emmanuel Karnley	14	0	0	5